Could Iran be bluffing ?

[TheBaldyMan]

There is a story about the USSR back in the bad old days when the Cold War was less than 10 years old. The technology wasn't as advanced as it is nowadays, no satellites, No planes could fly deep into the russian interior and the only time the West found out about some new military hardware was when it took part in the May Day parade in Red Square.

The US had heard rumours about a new russian bomber capable of dropping the newly developed Rusky bomb. The soviets being masters of deception wanted the US to think that it had more bombers than it did, in this case 4 bombers in the whole soviet airforce.

Stalin gave the order for all four bombers to fly in formation over Red Square then loop round in a wide circle while fighter squadrons flew by. Then after a respectable pause the same bombers flew past again then more fighter squadrons, and again and again. The US intelligence agencies had spies observing the parade and reported back that the russian had over 60 of the brand new bomber at least.

This incident was a main cause for the ratcheting up of the arms race because the americans said their was a 'bomber gap'.

This got me thinking about the latest musical showing in Tehran, you might have seen it on the news - lots of Iranians in various forms of national dress dancing on stage and singing about the enrichment of uranium. Very impressive and ranks alongside any Maoist opera glorifiying the electrification of China's railways. The big musical number finishes with two small vials of white powder held aloft. How do we know that it is really 7.5% uranium and not, for instance, soap-powder.

This would sound fanciful if it were not for historical precedent. A nation struggling against an industrial giant that can outstrip it at all things apart from perhaps oil production. Left to rely on only native wit and the Americans legendary gullibility and inability to 'get' irony.

[wake.up.america]

1. Now, if Bush attacks Iran merely because of unverified claims....

[FloridaPat]

10. Too bad he outed Valerie Plame & her group who were keeping

track of those kinds of things in Iran.

[Kutjara]

2. It's probably likely that they are bluffing to some extent...

...but we appear to lack the intelligence apparatus to verify or refute their claims. So we have to believe them.

If I were the Iranian government, there's no way I'd be showing the actual uranium off at a PR event. I would definitely go with soap powder. The uranium would be sitting under lock and key somewhere safe.

Actually, it probably doesn't matter either way. Since the US appears ready to tear apart any county that hints that it might one day start manufacturing glow in the dark watches, Iran has already done enough to 'warrant' an attack.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

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[Cooley Hurd]

5. Thanks for the drug addict's transcript...

...what does it have to do with this thread, though?:eyes:

On edit: you've been alerted to the mods...

[Cooley Hurd]

4. Yes, they are bluffing...

http://www.juancole.com/2006/04/iran-can-now-make-glowing-mickey-mouse.html

Despite all the sloppy and inaccurate headlines about Iran "going nuclear," the fact is that all President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday was that it had enriched uranium to a measely 3.5 percent, using a bank of 180 centrifuges hooked up so that they "cascade."

The ability to slightly enrich uranium is not the same as the ability to build a bomb. For the latter, you need at least 80% enrichment, which in turn would require about 16,000 small centrifuges hooked up to cascade. Iran does not have 16,000 centrifuges. It seems to have 180. Iran is a good ten years away from having a bomb, and since its leaders, including Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei, say they do not want an atomic bomb because it is Islamically immoral, you have to wonder if they will ever have a bomb.
</snip>

Professor Cole is correct...

[HamdenRice]

12. This actually means they are not bluffing

Bluffing means lying. They have disclosed that they have achieved 3.5% enrichment. They allow international inspectors. We know exactly the level of enrichment they have achieved and that they are far, far away from having enough material for a bomb. So they are being completely honest.

There is no crisis. It's entirely an artifical publicity stunt of the bush administration.

[Vetinarii]

6. Iraq bluffed about having chem/bio weapons

... and Bush used it as an excuse for his invasion.

So the USA is, officially, Not Deterred by those weapons. And it spends more on its conventional forces than any other ten countries put together.

So what's the only remaining option for a country that wants to remain independent, i.e. wants to be able to deter the US from invading it? That's right. Iran and North Korea aren't the only ones to have worked this out. My prediction: within twenty years, there will be at least a dozen new nuclear powers worldwide.

[rfkrfk]

7. anybody, everybody, could be lieing

scientists, project director, ministers,
president, etc.

[Lexingtonian]

8. Oh, it's all bluffing

but really, really ugly sorts of bluffing.

The Iranians are undermining the Bushies' hold on Iraq, which is now extremely tenuous. Cheney and Rumsfeld can't bear the defeat for themselves that's in the making- it's political bankrupcy, really- and are doing all they can to keep that defeat from happening. Since there's nothing they can do about most things inside Iraq now, pressuring Iran out of play is what's left.

Achmedinajad is the tool calling the Bush bluff in little increments. Slightly enriched uranium one day, more Russian air defense systems the next, and a vague threat against Israel the third. Cheney and Rummie...I don't know whether there's an actual plan other than trying to ratchet up political and psychological pressure until some Iranian cracks.

The problem Cheney and Rummie have that their real opponent is Khamenei, and Khamenei has figure out that his hand is better than what Cheney and Rummie are holding. He knows he has victory. The White House is just banging the table as hard as it can, unable to accept the outcome that's in the making.

[bemildred]

14. Good call.

:thumbsup:

[no_hypocrisy]

9. Doesn't matter if they are bluffing. * will use it as verifiable proof

that he is justified to bomb Iran back to the Stone Ages, murdering millions of its citizens, and compromising the earth, water, and atmosphere not only in Iran but whereever the dust, water, and air may travel around the world to different countries (including Iraq, Bright Boy, where our soldiers will come down with cancer, at least those not blown up by roadside bombs).

Shut down the country. Stop this madman.

[Oversea Visitor]

11. Sad world if country need to bluff

to keep their freedom.

Does it matter if they bluffing or not.
Why is your country so whacko nowadays

This is more like a grown man
beating up a 6 years old kid

[TheBaldyMan]

13. vanity kick n/t