Deadline for US or Israel to attack Iran -- only a "few months" says M&G

[HamdenRice]

South Africa's leading Mail & Guardian newspaper has an interesting article syndicated from the British Guardian, that suggests that if the US or Israel intend to attack and destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, they will have to do so within a few months.

The reason is that the targeted reactor will then have fissionable materials, and even the US and Israel would not risk a Chernobyl type incident.

Recall that when Israel attacked Iraq's nuclear facilities, it did so while they were still under construction to avoid nuclear contamination.

There are some other interesting observations in the piece as well. For example it cites NY Times reporter who claims that Iran obtained some advanced nuclear technology from the US CIA through a mistake of that agency in a program to provide false technology or disinformation:

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=260766&area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__international_news/

Why bullying Iran is not an option

Mary Riddell


08 January 2006 09:25
...

If Iran ends its 30-month freeze on uranium tests, the long diplomatic mission by the West will be in ruins. The British Foreign Office says all bets will be off; United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signals that Iran is heading for the United Nations Security Council, and thus for resolutions and sanctions. Every diplomat and onlooker knows the steps of that quadrille. They danced it for Iraq.

As Iran moves towards the ultimate in weapons of mass destruction, US President George Bush must be thinking he fought the wrong war. Now, as Israel says Iran's nuclear missile programme "can be destroyed", the scent of another conflict hangs in the air. Even if President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad steps back from the brink, as he is prone to, there is a wider threat.

...

In addition, New York Times reporter James Risen claims in a new book that the CIA inadvertently helped Iran build a nuclear bomb by supplying flawed blueprints that the country's scientists may have corrected and used. Obviously, leaked intelligence on weapons of mass destruction comes with some health warnings. How dodgy, exactly, are these dossiers?

...

Israel would have to move fast, though. A few months from now, Iran's powerful Bushehr reactor could be up and running and few attackers would dare unleash a reprise of Chernobyl. Such a threat may seem far-fetched, but the tolerance of Bush for a regime he calls "the world's primary sponsor of terror" is as thin as skin.

...
-- Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005

edited for correction

[LunaC]

1. Thanks - I've been following the Iran situation closely

I was thinking all hell will break loose by year's end but it looks like it can come sooner than I suspected.

[HamdenRice]

3. Iran actually has a lot of control over timing ...

by determining when they install the radioactive material in the power plant. Not a good situation.

[xchrom]

2. this is not going to end well.

the u.s. or israel{i'm betting on the u.s.} bombs iran -- and without iran having to say much at all -- creates a mighty, mighty backlash against the west.