Huffington Post: Major Unions Set To Endorse -- But Will They?

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-tasini/major-unions-set-to-endor_b_59445.html

Tomorrow is a significant day for the Democratic presidential race: the unions of the AFL-CIO will be freed up to endorse candidates. But, I suspect that a number of unions may hold back, at least until after Labor Day. Here are a few guesses, some based on information and some wildly speculative and pulled out of my...

All the AFL-CIO unions respected the internal process of the AFL-CIO, which dictated that individual endorsements not be made until after the federation's executive council met in Chicago today and tomorrow; tonight there is an AFL-CIO-sponsored presidential debate at Soldiers' Field in Chicago where, if the thunderstorms stay away, 15,000 union members are expected to attend. To get the federation's overall endorsement, a candidate would need to nail down support from two-thirds of the unions in the AFL-CIO. That isn't likely to happen, as much because a number of unions want to stay uncommitted to see how the race unfolds.

To state the obvious, labor support means troops and money to get out the vote. It's particular crucial in caucus states like Iowa and Nevada. At this point, the conventional perception is that, if unions went with their heart, they'd endorse John Edwards. But, many of the union leaders are being influenced by the measures that are influencing the media coverage and some public perceptions: polls, money and celebrity. And, as a result, some of the unions might decide to stay neutral for some time and, perhaps, even stay out of the primary fight period.

I would also say that Hillary Clinton has a significant base of support within certain unions. But, two things are hurting her. First, a number of unions still don't trust her instincts on trade, which, for a number of unions, is a bottom line issue. Though she announced that she would oppose the South Korea so-called "free trade" deal, there is still a lingering suspicion, fairly or not, that she is much more likely to mimic Bill Clinton's support for so-called "free trade" (after all, NAFTA was promoted and pushed by Bill Clinton... And as an aside, Robert Reich, Clinton's labor secretary); unions have no desire to see more "liberals" elected who will push bad trade deals. Second, she can't shake the stories that have linked her senior advisor Mark Penn to public relations work that was done for anti-union companies (in fact, there is yet another story on the subject in today's Los Angeles Times); that fact, whether relevant or significant or not, is still lingering in the background.

So, all that being said, here's a look at where some of the unions might go (I'll update this in the future)

American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME): huge endorsement because AFSCME workers are everywhere. I gather that Clinton, Obama and Edwards have strong support in particular parts of the country. The union's president, Gerry McEntee, does not want a repeat of 2004, when he jumped publicly from candidate to candidate (and publicly called his at-the-time choice Howard Dean "crazy" after the Iowa caucuses). Wants to be with the winner so may wait a bit before jumping in.

FULL article at link.