Here is an 'official document' (the Social Security and Medicare Trustee's Report signed by Tim Geithner, Hilda Solis, Kathleen Sebelius, etc) and totally contradicts what CEPR claims ("This is not true. There is no, as in zero, none, official document that says the program is not sustainable in its current form.")
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/index.html"Projected long-run program costs for both Medicare and Social Security are not sustainable under currently scheduled financing, and will require legislative corrections if disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers are to be avoided.
The financial challenges facing Social Security and Medicare should be addressed soon. If action is taken sooner rather than later, more options and more time will be available to phase in changes so that those affected can adequately prepare." By the Trustees:
Timothy F. Geithner,
Secretary of the Treasury,
and Managing Trustee
Hilda L. Solis,
Secretary of Labor,
and Trustee
Kathleen Sebelius,
Secretary of Health
and Human Services,
and Trustee
Michael J. Astrue,
Commissioner of
Social Security,
and Trustee
Charles P. Blahous III,
Trustee
Robert D. Reischauer,
Trustee
Specifically they said: "The projected date of HI Trust Fund exhaustion is 2024, five years earlier than estimated in last year’s report, at which time dedicated revenues would be sufficient to pay 90 percent of HI costs."
"For the sixth consecutive year, a "Medicare funding warning" is being triggered, signaling that projected non-dedicated sources of revenues -- primarily general revenues -- will soon account for more than 45 percent of Medicare’s outlays."
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also the CEPR makes major assumptions based upon further assumptions by the CBO:
The Medicare estimates only apply if Congress stops doing "Doc" fixes and drops physician fees by 29% next year.
http://www.cms.gov/ReportsTrustFunds/downloads/tr2011.pdf from Section III:
"Most of the ACA-related cost saving is attributable to a reduction in the annual payment updates for most Medicare services (other than physicians’ services and drugs) by total economy multifactor productivity growth, which is projected to average 1.1 percent per year. The report notes that the long-term viability of this provision is debatable.
"In addition, an almost 30-percent reduction in Medicare payment rates for physician services is assumed to be implemented in 2012 , notwithstanding experience to the contrary. "