What about the math?

[ladym55]

Jonathan Alter published a story in Newsweek right before the Ohio/Texas primaries, "Hillary's Math Problem":

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

<snip>

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

Why is no one paying attention to this? Why is the insanity allowed to continue? This is just so bad for the party. Does anyone understand what's going on? :shrug:

[sandnsea]

1. I think they're hoping he'll implode

I think there are those who think this is just a passing fad, that young people will lose interest and then we'll be stuck with a candidate that women and the working class base isn't that interested in. Otherwise, I can't understand why this thing is being allowed to continue either, except for the fact that the Clintons have more power in the party than anybody, which is why the whole IWR thing is such a joke. They are one of the few who had the power to do something about the war and they didn't.

[ladym55]

2. She's the one who appears to be imploding

She is beginning to flip me out. I feel like I'm watching a train wreck whenever she speaks.

She is doing so much damage now. I expect the RNC is gathering HRC video clips for fall. She is providing all the material they need for their ad campaign.

[ginnyinWI]

3. the media really doesn't know what to do with this--

so instead they spin narratives that they think make them look smart. They don't want to look at the reality of what is going on because they can't really believe that this "insurgent" might actually win the nomination due to nothing more than popular support (and lots of ground game, of course). Things aren't suppose to happen like this, think these cynical, jaded old pundits. Obama was supposed to be an entertaining diversion on the way to HRC's coronation! And there may also be an unconscious racist element there, too. And the laziest ones just grab the nearest subject like the Power resignation and feast on that instead.

Shields on Newshour, sitting there opining about Hillary winning Ohio and Texas, either hasn't noticed or refuses to acknowledge Obama getting more Texas delegates. What, caucus votes don't count now, Mark? This election is truly something new for more than one reason. Who would have ever imagined one of our own candidates turning into a banshee and going after one of our own? Yet she's still revered by the media, perhaps partly out of habit, partly out of bewilderment at what's going down. Old habits die hard. And still she accuses them of treating her unfairly and favoring her opponent! Positively Orwellian.

Thankfully there is another media out here in cyberspace that will inform where TV will not! A few years ago I would not have been able to sit there listening to guys on CNN or MSNBC or PBS say something and then be able to answer, "NOT TRUE!"

[sandnsea]

4. Scarborough mentioned "interest groups"

On Bill Maher. They were talking about the media and the weird shift in attention. He seemed to acknowledge that complaining works and that Hillary's complaint had affect. But he also mentioned "interest groups", in passing almost, and I wondered if it wasn't women's groups that had more affect than we realize. I still think they had more impact on the Imus thing than black groups did. Chris had to publicly apologize, Schuster gets suspended. I'm wondering what is really going on with the media, as I have for a while. You watch foreign media for ten minutes and you know we're getting the mushroom treatment.

[marlakay]

6. My best friend is in Sydney

and she always says how weird our news is. They get to hear the truth. elections are pubicly funded and you have to vote or get fined so everyone does. The prime minister only has to give 30 days notice of election and they don't get slamned with all the ads we do. They just watch their truthful news and read up on who is running.

She thinks its crazy we spend so many millions of dollars its wasteful and so much time...

i agree but nothing i can do!

[Inuca]

11. Your friend is right

The system here is crazy and incredibly wasteful. Glad as I am that Obama is raking all these millions from small fish like us, just think of how much more good this money could do if spent on things other than TV ads, etc. The whole system is way too much geared toward "the one with the most money wins". It does not always happen that way, but the flip side is that with hardly any exception, the one with very little money loses, and the fact that s/he does not have enough money is not necessarily a reflection of their quality as candidates. Obama is in a category of his own, for reasons I do have to explain here. But think of Dodd and Biden, both of them miles above Clinton (except of course that they are not female, with the corollary of not being married to ex-presidents). But in anything that Clinton claims as her qualifications and justifications for being elected to the presidency, both of these guys had more of, and with much more solid arguments (as opposed to inflating one's resume, see the North Ireland story). Anyway... I ramble, apologies, I have work to do, but I'd rather ramble here :-).

[ginnyinWI]

7. where do you find foreign media?

You mean newspapers that are on the web, or? There is BBC America news, but, you know, it's still kind of Americanized.

[sandnsea]

8. Satellite

My husband has some satellite setup that gets some channels from Canada and whatnot. I don't watch foreign news often enough, but whenever I have, it is way different. World news really shows, well, the world of all things. There isn't as much tantalizing music and as many graphic headlines and all of that. It's real news and it tends to come from a much further left view than our news, when we get it. Our news is just really designed around "me me me".

[ginnyinWI]

9. I notice that too

Even BBC gives me a better overall picture of the world. We have DishTV and do get LINK and COLORS which both have international programming. I'm going to have to take a closer look.

[marlakay]

10. she watches late at night to ABC show

that is totally not like ours and has a great program. She gave me the site. http://www.abc.net.au/

and this is what she said to me in a recent email...

"Our ABC is unrelated to yours - its independent and gov funded - so no advertising and no bias. Its in their charter to give equal air time to both sides of any argument. Very good."

[Kukesa]

5. This is how the media folks make a living.

If we had chosen a candidate by now, they wouldn't be in their current feeding frenzy.

[Inuca]

12. This is definitely one of the reasons

(the main reason?) that they portray it as a "horse race" when in fact it is not any longer. And they keep presenting and analyzing all kind of scenarios that may still lead to a Clinton victory, all of them also leading to a complete party implosion, but who cares :mad:. The media guy I like the most in all this is NBC's Chuck Todd. He is their "number man", and tends to stick to the numbers, and rationally concluding that short of an Obama implosion or some extreme external factor, such as 9/11 redux, it is NOT going to change.

[ladym55]

13. I think you're right

I was reading an article from Wednesday's (?) NY Times about how CNN's ratings have benefited from the primary season. (Hey, it's snowing so I'm reading alot.) I expect the same is true for MSNBC. They got HUGE ratings for the debate in Cleveland. This is a gravy train for them, so they will keep it going as long as they can. Who cares about the country anyway? :eyes: