Good news: Obama retakes lead in national tracking polls

[democrattotheend]

Now leads Clinton 46-44. Yesterday Clinton led 47-45. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

Obama has also retaken the lead in today's Gallup poll, 47-45. http://www.gallup.com/poll/104839/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-Clinton-45.aspx

Within the margin of error, but still a good sign. Remember that these are 3 or 4 day averages, so that means Obama had a particularly good night last night.

At least it shows the bleeding has stopped for now, if nothing else. Obama's support is not collapsing the way I was afraid it was last week.

[ginnyinWI]

1. people are smarter that the Clinton camp takes them for

Obama has said the same thing--"people are smarter than that"--when asked if this or that item will hurt politically. This shows he's right.

She is painting herself as desperate and willing to say or do anything and it's pretty obvious. You don't have to be intellectual to understand this--it's very easy to get. Anyone who's had a child and heard the whining they do when they want a favorite toy or treat or are complaining about something their sister got that they didn't has experienced this before!

[goclark]

2. Please let it be ~

[JanusAscending]

5. IT IS..................!!

O8) :hug: I believed it from the start.

[DavidDvorkin]

3. I've been posting a graph of the Rasmussen poll daily in GD:P

For a long time, there'd be angry responses about national polls not meaning anything. Then for a while there were angry posts saying that only polls of the remaining primary states mattered. Lately, the angry posts have stopped. I hope it means that something is sinking in.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I can sorta see their argument.

Early on, polls meant nothing. It was all about Iowa and to a lesser extent New Hampshire. After that, polls meaned a bit more, but still didn't mean as much, because it wasn't a national primary. But now that we're getting through all the primaries, the national polls do mean a bit more -- since it shows the mood of all Democratic voters. Remember, 80% of the pledged delegates have been allocated and of that, Obama has won 52% of them.

[DavidDvorkin]

7. You could argue that national polls never mean anything

when they compare the candidates of one party to each other. Only state polls have meaning, and even then only for states that haven't yet held their primaries/caucuses. That's the argument some of those posters were making.

However, I think that national polls are always useful to show us the overall mood of Democrats or Republicans. I also argued in those threads that the trends were significant. I think the trends did indicate forecast the decline of Clinton, the rise of Obama, and the failure of Edwards to catch on.

[liberaldem4ever]

4. Thanks for good news

I think things are looking up! Just a feeling I have.