Survey USA polls overall not as bad as I thought for Obama

[book_worm]

Yes, he has taken a hit this week, but the Survey USA polls as a whole don't show a collapse for his campaign overall. He has lost ground, no doubt, but remember these polls were taken prior to his speech on Tuesday.

For instance Survey USA still has Obama running better than Hillary against McCain in Oregon, Washington, Virginia, Kansas, Wisconsin and doing as well as Hill in New Mexico. He also has a 14-point lead still in California (hillary is doing slightly better there) and he's doing well in Hillary's homestate of NY. He will recover! and make up lost ground.

[4_Legs_Good]

1. The only numbers that really matter are OR and KY

of the lot that I've seen from Survey USA. We really only need to concentrate on the states that remain in the Primary. We'll have plenty of time to fight against McCain later. Remember the General is 8 months off. Anything can happen in that time. We just can't afford to lose ground in the 10 remaining battle grounds of the Primary. Loss of traction in NC, OR or IN would be hard to bear, I think IN is particularly important.

And anything we can regain in PA will be very good. If the biggies hold up, though, we'll be okay, and once we have the nomination, I think the rest of the states will swing back. Put McCain next to Obama and I think the choice between tomorrow and yesterday becomes very, very clear.

David

[book_worm]

2. I think KY is not a good state for Obama

It's too much like TN which Hill won easily. I'm not sure about WVA either. I think that Obama has a good shot coming up in Indiana, Oregon, North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota. Hill's best shots in my view are KY, PA and WVA.

[4_Legs_Good]

3. I agree completely

I think KY, PA and WV are likley lost causes, but as far as the new Survey USA polls go, only KY and OR really matter as they're the only ones of the lot that are still on the primary schedule. Clinton will try to use the other results for her "electability" argument, but that hardly matters, IMO.

David