Damn, I thought Obama could win Indiana.

[Drunken Irishman]

This surprises me, he's down 9 there.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=35417ff6-4985-47ce-8e1b-3fbe566d108d&q=45558

In fact, he's trailing in all but one state, North Carolina, which does not bode well for him. If Clinton wins PA by 10+ points, splits NC and Indiana and then takes West Virginia and Kentucky by large margins, while she'll be behind the delegate count, she'll have far more momentum than Obama and could make the case she should get more support from superdelegates.

I really thought Obama would win Indiana, or at least be tied, but 9 points down, even after campaigning there not too long ago? Ouch. :(

[Kukesa]

1. Too early to be discouraged, DI.

Indiana doesn't vote until May 6 and Obama hasn't concentrated any effort there.

The Cincinnati Obama supporters have barely started canvassing and phone banking in Indiana. VolcanoJen is active in this group and they've just begun; they'll soon be out in force.

West Virginia and Kentucky will probably be losses but the campaign expects that. As much as I hate to admit it, there are too many racists in both states.

Keep smilin'; and don't forget to hope. YES WE CAN!!

[ginnyinWI]

2. yeah, wait until he actually gets there

He'll bring it up--always does. :)

[MBS]

3. that's right, kukesa!

Ditto to ginnyinwi, too!

[Kukesa]

4. Cheer up, Di He's leading in Pennsylvania!

Have you seen this poll that shows Obama 45; Clinton 43?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf

(I stole this from a post in GD-P, but it bears repeating.)

YES WE CAN!!

[karynnj]

5. I wouldn't be that discouraged this was after a week of

many Clinton appearances in the state. I think Hillary, Bill and Chelsea were there.

[democrattotheend]

6. I'm actually glad he's starting out behind

I remember reading a while back that the campaigns and the pundits were not sure what to expect for Indiana, which candidate it favored. This way he starts out as the underdog and has time to gain ground, and the expectations are lower.

[Kukesa]

8. Good point. n/t

[book_worm]

7. He also will win Oregon, South Dakota and Montana.

And I haven't written Indiana off either. KY and WVA I always saw as strong Hillary states. They are like Tennessee which was one of her strongest. The border south isn't as strong for Obama as the deep south is.

[4_Legs_Good]

9. I think Indiana is more like a Wisconsin than a Pennsylvania/Ohio

I think it's a state he can turn once starts campaigning in earnest. I don't think he had much of a chance in Ohio or PA, so don't rule Indiana out yet, once this long race for PA is over, I think we'll see the numbers start to move there.

David

[ginnyinWI]

10. hope so, but

Wisconsin is a blue state, although a light blue state and considered a swing state. Every map I've seen always shows Indiana pretty decisively red, which to me means a more consevative Dem voter demographic. I really don't know much about Indiana other than what I've just typed, though, so I could be wrong.

I think an Obama win there would be great--a big positive message to the Super Delegates.

[MBS]

11. NW Indiana is almost a Chicago suburb. .

lots of people live in that part of Indiana and commute into Chicago.. maybe this will help, as would the general fact that Indiana borders Illinois (OK, it borders Ohio, too, but still) Also, "redness" doesn't always translate into conservative Democrats. Remember Idaho!!

[ginnyinWI]

13. Iowa and Wisconsin are neighbors to Illinois--

And I really think there is something to the idea of regionalism. Obama did well in both states. Listening to Obama in person seemed so natural to me, a Wisconsin native. His speech and phrases--familiar, easy to relate to. Now this might be because he's just a great communicator. But maybe there's a little bit more for people from the Mid-West. We like "nice" people--polite, well-mannered, maybe valuing that a little more than average, and being turned off more more than others are by brash, abrasive people (not to name any names).

[TomBall Democrat]

12. Don't lose hope

it ain't over yet...