I'm not feeling very confident right now.

[Drunken Irishman]

I'm not trying to be negative and I don't want to sound too negative, but right now, I'm pretty depressed.

Firstly, let me state that I understand Clinton can't overtake Obama in the delegate count. She knows this, I know this and the media knows this. So she's going to try and win it another way and it's pretty much setting up how she planned. Take PA by a larger than expected result and use that as a foundation for her electability argument. The reason I'm depressed is that it appears the media is siding with her on this one and once the perception of her being more electable gets out, Obama will take a hit, as Dean did in '04.

For Obama, he can pretty much end this by winning Indiana and taking North Carolina by 10+ points. If he does that, anything Clinton gained from PA will have been lost and her momentum thwarted to the point where Obama should cruise to the nomination. However, if Obama loses Indiana, he will lose the nomination and I hate saying that, because it shouldn't come down to just that state. If Clinton wins Indiana and loses North Carolina, it will be the game changing moment she's been hoping for. Whether we want to believe it or not, Obama has been picked to do well in Indiana because A) it's a neighbor state and B) he's led in every recent poll there since that last SUSA poll had Clinton up double digits. As Chuck Todd says, this race ends the second a candidate wins a state they weren't expected to win. Obama could have ended it Tuesday, but didn't and Clinton can end it next month if she takes either Indiana or North Carolina (though obviously she has a better shot at Indiana).

So I know you're all thinking even if Clinton wins Indiana, she won't win enough delegates to take the nomination. But I think basing the results solely on the delegate count is becoming less and less likely. This race is turning into one over electability and if more and more people buy into the argument Obama can't win, then I don't doubt Clinton will take the nomination. It won't be right, it won't be popular, but it will happen if Obama fails to win Indiana. And right now, I'm not so confident he wins that state.

Hopefully I'm wrong, though. And for what it's worth, I will never, ever throw my support to Clinton while Obama is still in the race.

[Dr Ron]

1. Will be hard to stop Obama

Clinton will try to spin a win in North Carolina or Indiana as meaning she has control of the race but that would only hold if this becomes a trend. An exception in one state will not give it to Clinton.

Clinton is making a lot of noise as if she has the momentum and parts of the media are buying it (partially because they benefit if the race goes on). That does not mean the superdelegates are dumb enough to buy this. They know that, barring a total collapse by Obama, he is the more electable candidate. Democrats in red states and battle ground states will especially want Obama because they know that down ticket Democrats will do much better with him on the ballot than with Clinton.

Democrats also know that if they deny Obama the nomination they lose much of the black vote, the independents, and the affluent liberal vote. This places them in a situation where the Democrats cannot win.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I hope you're right, Doctor.

But election fraud has become so common place in politics today that I'm not convinced she won't succeed.

I know Obama will win NC and probably by a good number, but Indiana is going to be tight. Hopefully, though, he can pull it out. Because if he does, no matter how she spins it, it's over. It's over if Clinton can't win Indiana.

[marlakay]

3. They had machines in PA

How are they voting in Indiana and N. Carolina??

[Dr Ron]

4. Indiana Might Not Change Things

If Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana there will certainly be pundits who say it is over but that does not mean Clinton will drop out. She seems determined to stay in as long as possible. Besides, the same pundits who say it is over after Obama wins Indiana will also say that the momentum has shifted to Clinton should she win another primary afterwards.

The only way Indiana would change things is if this gets enough superdelegates to decide it is over and back Obama. A sudden move of around 100 superdelegates to Obama should be enough to convince even Clinton that it is out of reach as this would make it possible for him to go into the convention with enough delegates to win.

[sandnsea]

5. No, he won't lose even if he loses Indiana

As long as he is ahead in the delegates, he'll win. I just can't see the supers overturning the delegate vote. He's also won many more states than her, many more blue states, and plenty of big states and swing states. I don't think the superdelegates will be swayed by media spin. I think most of them also know how much she is hated in huge portions of the country. It could happen, but it's looking less likely to me than it did just a few weeks ago.

[Dr Ron]

6. Agree

The only way Obama can still lose would be for major event to happen which totally shakes up the race. There would have to be a real surprise from Obama's past--and not simply something about someone else he associated with. Or there would have be be a real gaffe--not simply something such as the San Francisco statement which Clinton and Republicans spin as a gaffe.

[City Lights]

7. I don't think there is anything Hillary can do to turn this race around.

Regardless of what happens in NC and IN, I just don't see the soopers overturning the winner of the pledged delegates.

I am curious, though, about the type of voting machines used in both states, as well as whether the primaries are open, closed, or semi-open. I'm sick of Rush and his Operation Chaos, and I'm sick of electronic voting machines.

[beachmom]

8. Well, I know the rules, and the rules are the superdelegates are the ones

who will put one of the candidates over the top, not the media. The superdelegates are not going to do that for Hillary Clinton. Why? Because everyone knows that Obama won the pledged delegate count. Everyone equally knows that the only surprises we have had in this primary season are Missouri, Maine, and Conn. -- Obama won all of them. Other than that, each candidate won the states they were supposed to win, once we had figured out their coalitions. Indiana is a toss up, so the delegates will split evenly. I would advise you ignore the news for a while -- this is Hillary's last hurrah, and it's only going to go down hill for her. I agree that Indiana is important and would be fantastic if Obama won it. But it is NOT a game changer -- no state is a game changer this late in the game.

[tishaLA]

9. I'm feeling the same way

and I'm really annoyed that Rev Wright, who I think is not a bad person or preacher at all, is going to continue to scare the bejesus out of a large segment of voters. And I think this mean Obama has to make ANOTHER major speech and that the mainstream media, which seems invested in destroying him right now, is going to say it wasn't enough, etc.

I hope this passes. Hillary has been running a very good campaign recently, so I'm hoping she makes a misstep to take away some of her energy.

[book_worm]

10. I know how you feel

Obama has had opportuntites in the past to end this in NH, Texas (if he had won the popular vote along with the delegate count) and in PA. Indiana could close it, but it's going to be tough becuz many parts of that state are like KY and TN where H is strong. While I think Wright is making sense his speaking tour just a week before Indiana and NC is not helpful, imo.

[book_worm]

11. p.s. if that harpies somehow steals the nomination due to her campaign and media help

she is going to have a tough time uniting this party.

[MBS]

12. You betcha.

I hope that somehow Barack can take Indiana, to help put this all to rest ASAP.
I agree with beachmom that the supers will vote for Obama, but it would help them, and us, if he can take a few more states than expected, and that if it's obvious that he is really in the groove, all fired up, and fully armed to help us take our country back.

(and PS. I'm all for the positive campaign, but can't someone do a better job of reminding folks about the planeload of baggage and other difficulties on the HRC side? Someone really does have to take this on)