New SUSA poll of Indiana will have Obama down by 9

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52-43. (poll will be out later). A ARG poll of NC has Obama up by 10--52-42.

I'm a bit disappointed in the Indiana numbers. The media will have a field day if Hillary wins Indiana and how she is on a row (forgetting about NC, of course, which they will say was "expected" unlike what they did in PA). I sound like a broken record, but I honestly think Obama has to start taking Hillary on and somehow make her the issue.

[book_worm]

1. Indiana was always going to be somewhat tough

why? because southern Indiana is very much like Kentucky and Tennessee where Hillary has big leads. To win Obama needs to begin getting a bigger share of the white vote than he has gotten of late and still pull in strongly among AA. Here are some demographics of this poll:

No Clear Trend in Indiana -- Clinton Ends April Just As She Started: In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/28/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton finishes ahead of Barack Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead. SurveyUSA tracking graphs show movement toward Clinton in the middle of April but offsetting movement to Obama at the end of April. This back-and-forth can be seen clearly on the interactive tracking graphs for males, for Democrats, for pro-choice voters, and for residents of greater Indianapolis. Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky. Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half. Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent

[book_worm]

2. actually this is an improvement over their previous poll for Obama he's cut H lead in Susa by 7

so not so bad afterall.