Immanuel Wallerstein: Ending the Iraq War: Two Competing Plans

[scarletwoman]

Via Juan Cole :

Ending the Iraq War: Two Competing Plans

George W. Bush and Moqtada al-Sadr have competing plans for ending the Iraq War. Their plots have very different, conflicting objectives for its end. One may prevail over the other in the next year or two, says Immanuel Wallerstein.

There are only two serious plans -- or perhaps one should call them plots -- to end the Iraq War. Many will be surprised to realize that one of them is being formulated by George W. Bush, the other by Moqtada al-Sadr. The two plans share the presupposition that the Iraq War is a quagmire in which the proponents of these plans are losing more each day. But otherwise the two plans/plots are quite in conflict one with the other.

When things are going wrong in every way, realists throw over maximum objectives and seek to settle for at least something crucial. So the analytic question to ask is what is absolutely crucial for George W. Bush and what is absolutely crucial for Moqtada al-Sadr?

<snip>

So, if you were Bush, what would you try to salvage? Of the long list of U.S. objectives in Iraq, the most important has been the establishment of a long-term U.S. military base in the country. In terms of U.S. politics, Bush would undoubtedly like to minimize the negative impact on the 2008 elections. And if these were the two things that took priority, how could you do it? A recent leak indicates what plot is being concocted.

If, in early 2008, the United States announced that it was reducing its troop presence by half, and that it was largely withdrawing its troops from frontline action, what would be the consequence? First of all, it would blunt the attack by the Democrats that nothing is being done to reduce U.S. casualties and involvement. Secondly, it would put the Democrats in the embarrassing situation of having to say whether or not they favor long-term bases in Iraq. Chances are that many, perhaps most, Democratic leaders favor this. Chances are also that even a Democratic president, if elected in 2009, would continue such a policy.

(much more at link...)

Due to the 4-paragraph limit, I could not excerpt the exceptionally clear and concise Moqtada al-Sadr section of this article. I really hope people will click on the link and read the entire piece.

sw

[scarletwoman]

1. Gee, I was hoping *someone* would find this interesting... Oh well. (nt)