Rare cat 4 cyclone in Persian gulf

[greenman3610]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623#more

"Why might Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world supply of petroleum seemingly stuck around 85 mbbl/day, any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets.

Particularly, Oman matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade.

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect UAE, India, Pakistan, and Iran for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions, but there could be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on track and landfall."
"From 1995 on, no tropical storm of any strength ever reached the Persian Gulf."




http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?blog=andrews&date=2007-06-04_11:02&month=6


"I can say with confidence that this forecaster has never seen the likes of this":

[Clark2008]

1. Jeezus Kee-Rist on a Trailer Hitch.

THAT is incredible. You simply don't see this.

Kicking this thread. :kick:

[youngdem]

2. 240 MPH WINDS !!!!!!

Stronger than Katrina. Smaller though.

Expect higher gas prices I guess.

[bananas]

3. kph

[tavalon]

4. Too bad they won't stay rare.

[spinbaby]

5. It's a cat 3 now

Looks like it'll hit in about four hours:scared:

[RL3AO]

6. Its weakening.

It wont make landfall in Oman but will hit Iran as a cat 1. 100 degree sand does a good job of killing a tropical system.

[Lerkfish]

7. with global warming, I suppose severe, extreme, unprecedented weather will be the norm

[profgoose]

8. damage estimates and a re-link...

KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 25-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 15-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.

Also, take the #more out of the link to TOD, you're missing all of the graphics...try this one:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623

[gatorboy]

9. How man oil refineries are we talking about?

Get ready for 10 gas boys and girls, because, dag nab it, the oil companies just can't seem to find the time to fix those damaged refineries.

[Swamp Rat]

10. More info here:

WTIO31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 61.1E

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/cgi-bin/abpwcreate.cgi?File=1

[RL3AO]

11. Check this out.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=690&tstamp=200706

[Swamp Rat]

18. Thanks

I wish I was there (in a plane overhead or a Navy lab) collecting the data from the remote sensing equipment and inputting it to the GIS. :)

[RL3AO]

12. Do you see this?

Thats a Omanian (?) village built in a dry river bed near the coast. Not good.

[uppityperson]

13. Here's a map of "major energy infrastructure" & where Gonu will be

[RL3AO]

14. Forecast map.

Oh crap. I just looked at this. Its going right over the capital of Oman...a city of 600,000.

[uppityperson]

15. Blog writen by Omanite (Omani?), living in Australia, link here

http://omaniidiot.blogspot.com/2007/06/cyclone-guno-to-hit-oman.html

I don’t know about you, but I’m terrified. And I’m in Australia. Seriously. Who wouldn’t be? This has never happened in Oman. EVER. A little heavy rain and the country goes into complete chaos (flashbacks of last December here http://omaniidiot.blogspot.com/2006/12/muscat-drowned.html and here http://omaniidiot.blogspot.com/2006/12/car-piles.html ).

[RL3AO]

16. I think the death toll could approach 50,000. It depends how quicking the Gov't acted.

[uppityperson]

17. another link to some more bloggers in the way

http://www.globalvoicesonline.org/2007/06/05/oman-tropical-cyclone-gonu-hits-oman/

...(clip)
Though initially not taken seriously by many, the majority of the people are now seriously terrified as recent announcements state that the cyclone is moving towards the capital of the Oman, Muscat. Surprisingly, the Omani media has been doing a great job by proving coverage over TV and radio regarding the latest updates, but as the evening approaches now approaches, everything seems to cool down. OmanTV is now showing a drama TV series as if nothing has happened, I do not have access to a radio right now to hear what’s going being broadcast there.
(clip with info on bloggers in Oman and other news media)
There are no sources for instantaneous news updates regarding the cyclone in Oman. I think that visiting one of the Omani forums such as OmanForum and EnglishSabla can provide somewhat of a helpful guide on what is happening.

[uppityperson]

19. sleepless in Muscat Blogger just reported this...

It has just started to rain here in our area in the Muscat region for about 20-30 minutes with a strong breeze.

Since it is night-time, nothing can actually been seen at all.

We have told that such signs are the beginning of the storm's presence in the area. From hereon, it should be at least another 3-4 hours until it hit peak levels.

Rains here have been moderate to drizzly so far but haven't stopped since the minute they started.

There has been a report of grounding several airlines such as Oman Air, Gulf Air and Air India - but no such word about closing down the airport. These flights could take off in the morning and possibly moved to Salalah's Civil Airport, the report says. (Gulf News)

CNN.com has presented a very thorough report about the Cyclone that is set to change lives if it hits Muscat with full force - to read it, click here. Alternatively, you can watch the video that was posted on the same news site here.
-----------------------------------
Uppityperson here, it is interesting, looking through blogspot blogs from Oman, what an interesting time we live in, with people blogging about everywhere.

[Jim Lane]

20. And the Freepers put their atavistic spin on it

Some of the Freepers are hoping the storm will swerve into Iran. One example: "Let us hope it tracks into southern Iran. It would be bad if it did take that NW track into the Persian Gulf. Could loss (sic) some grounded oil tankers that simply cannot moore (sic) in deeper water (main channel area)." So the Freepers are venting their spleen at Muslims (wishing for widespread deaths of innocent people), and, in the process, misspelling common one-syllable words. Some things in this world change and some don't.

At least one Freeper isn't content to just sit back and hope God decides to smite the unbelievers. He thinks we should be more proactive:

This will be that “Golden Moment” to take iran out,,,Hit em’ rite behind the storm,,,Oil will already be up,,,they will have no “oil weapon”,,,they will be helpless,,,Game Over...;0)

Both these quotations are from about the storm. There are other threads on the subject, probably with more such material, but I confess I haven't looked. I can take only so much.

A thorough search might even find a post in which one of these defenders of Christianity gently remonstrates with his colleagues for their dubious application of the "Love thy neighbor" principle. As it happens, however, my reading didn't include any such material.

[uppityperson]

21. You go there so we don't have to!

Thanks for the post on them, shaking my head.

[uppityperson]

22. update, high tides, flooding, story/link

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theuae/2007/June/theuae_June129.xml§ion=theuae

(clip)A spokesperson for the Dubai Meteorological Office said the storm will not directly affect most parts of the emirates, except for Fujairah, which is nearest to the Gulf of Oman. “We’re expecting Fujairah to experience strong winds and high tides, which can rise to as high as 10 feet by mid-morning today,” he said.

Local authorities have confirmed that the traffic leading to Fujairah had been diverted to alternative routes as Kalba Street remained closed. Sand bags were lined along Kalba to block excessive water inflow.

According to late evening reports, high tides swept through Kalba coasts, flooding the great garden at Al Faisail, the Heritage Museum at the old house of Shaikh Saeed Al Qasimi, as well as some residential districts. Bad weather conditions affected the normal activities along the East Coast. Construction activities at Al Qariya were temporarily halted as water submerged the construction equipment, while desalination facilities at Qadfa were flooded with rain waters. Strong waves smashed the breakwaters at Sharm and Bedia, resulting in flooding. Traffic from Khor Fakkan to Dibba came to a standstill. Met offices across the UAE have advised the public, residents and tourists not to engage in any water-related activities until the weather stabilises. Faisal Al Muhairi, head of weather forecasting section in Abu Dhabi said: “We are monitoring the cyclonic waves through the satellite and radars round the clock and we will officially issue alert notices on Wednesday after assessing the exact situation.”

According to the Met department, the cyclone is at the Arabian Sea and heading towards the northwest with the speed of 10-12km per hour. “This will bring sundry changes in the weather like rain with thunder showers in the eastern areas of the UAE. It will likely reach Fujairah by Wednesday afternoon with wind speed at approximately 50 knots,” Al Muhairi said.(more@link)

[soothsayer]

23. I wonder if HAARP has been busy lately...

[RestoreGore]

24. 17 to 21 MILLION barrels of oil a day come out of the Persian Gulf

We are drug addicts.

[RestoreGore]

25. One video I found

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=49750&cl=2947923&ch=283293&src=news

[Strelnikov_]

26. Pics starting to come in

Flooding in Muscat (Capital)



"Do you think we can cross, Amir? Probably, we'll try"

[Strelnikov_]

29. Wee bit of storm surge

Qurum beach, near Muscat








Google maps:

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&t=h&ie=UTF8&ll=23.615705,58.497176&spn=0.008729,0.014591&z=16&om=1

[npincus]

27. Holy shit- wasn't it cat 1 this morning?

[uppityperson]

28. Yes, it grew to 5, now is down to 1. Lots of rain though

Links to stories, pictures, blogger
http://www.gulfnews.com/indepth/gonu/index.html
http://www.gulfnews.com/region/Oman/10130416.html
http://archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/gonu/sub_story/10130467.html

http://sleeplessinmuscat.blogspot.com/2007/06/updated-news-bulletin-part-9-sftermath.html