Category 5 Cyclone (hurricane) Hitting Middle East Oil Producing Countries

[kpete]

Severe Cyclone Gonu Prepares to Strike the Gulf of Oman
Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:34 AM CDT on June 05, 2007



An unusual event is happening over the next 48 hours, as the first tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds, and major hurricane-force winds at that, is approaching the Gulf of Oman, to strike the eastern coast of Oman, curve northward, and make landfall on the coast of Iran. In the tropical cyclone best tracks and the modern era of weather satellites, there is no record of such an occurrence.

Today, Steve Gregory and I will be guest-hosting the blog, while Jeff is on vacation, to provide current information on Severe Cyclone Gonu. I'll provide some background on the areas that are currently forecast to be in the path of this dangerous cyclone, followed by Steve's Monday evening surge forecast and assessment based on the most recent JTWC track and intensity forecast, which currently calls for sustained winds of 115 kt when first passing near the coastline of Oman.

Updates during the day will be posted on my blog, The View From the Surface.

As I write this it is late in the evening in the central US, but the day has already begun in the Middle East. Distant cirrus from Gonu have already started to cloud the Gulf of Oman, and over the course of the day there, conditions will deteriorate along the eastern coast of Oman as the tropical cyclone approaches. Overnight, the core of Gonu will approach the tip of Oman, with the eye passing offshore just before dawn, and the bulk of the surge occuring along the eastern coast some time shortly before that. By midday the next day the worst of the storm will have passed the southernmost portion of the coast, and the core of the storm will be directly east of Muscat, the capital of Oman, home to over half a million people. Right now the forecast has the storm passing just offshore, but if the track shifts further east, the most damaging winds of the cyclone will remain over water. This will lessen the damage to Oman, but will likely result in a higher intensity when making landfall in Iran.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=690&tstamp=200706

[AnnieBW]

1. There goes the price of gas

again.

[EstimatedProphet]

2. Just wait. It'll be $5 a gallon in 2 days.

[Generator]

3. Thank God Mobile /Exxon now has an excuse for next year's

profits. John Stossel: "It's supply and demand. They deserve those profits."

[marmar]

6. John Stossel deserves to be slapped senseless....

I can't stand that little creep.

[uppityperson]

4. couple more DU links, in case of interest. Actually it's down to Cat 1-2

Still, 100 mph winds and flooding are a problem. Yes, I've been interested, watching a bit. Bunch of other links in these topics too

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2870613&mesg_id=2870613
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2870613
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1048031
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1046900

[originalpckelly]

5. You know, this just couldn't happen at a worse time.

Who the hell has ever heard of one of these suckers hitting the Middle East anyway? Talk about the weird weather effects of global warming, if this should be related.