I didn't watch the NH republic debate, I did read the transcript and articles covering the debate.
One striking difference between this 3rd debate and the other 2 was the repositioning of the candidates from avoiding mentioning bush to bashing bush. The Monty Python scene of the knights in retreat yelling "run away run away" kept popping into my head...
Could it be the GOPer candidates have woken to find the bush/cheney mis-administration is a cement block around their necks? The GOP money machine recently fired and shut down their US based telemarketing phone banks (rumor has it they have/are contracting the phone bank to some outfit in SOUTH AMERICA. The "official" GOP reason for closing it down is that the equipment is antiquated and would cost too much to upgrade - but if you read
http://www.newswithviews.com/Ryter/jon175.htm :
The head of the RNC's small donor phone bank system reluctantly admitted that grassroots contributions were off 25% to 40%, but attributed the decline to their aging phone bank equipment that they said would cost too much money to update. And even though a spokesperson for the RNC denied there was any decline in grassroots fundraising contributions, saying that their records suggested they had outraised the DNC's grassroots fundraisers by a two-to-one margin. In reality, they didn't. The reverse was true. The GOP is feeling the brunt of some very serious donor backlash. Several of the fired telemarketers noted that most of the potential GOP donors they have called recently were angry over President George W. Bush's immigration reform policy. Bush, on the other hand, accused immigration bill foes—most of whom are close political allies who fought shoulder-to-shoulder with him on several other policy issues since 2001—of using scare tactics to alienate the support of conservative voters who stood with him for six years.
Iraq may have been the issue for the Dems in '06, but it seems immigration is the big issue among Republicans, and there are scattered mentions buried in articles that many registered republicans are now unregistering themselves as Republicans. So when you read a poll saying x% of registered republicans still support bush, you have to ask how many republicans are left.
Attempts at spinning this as a "normal situation" of a presidency winding down doesn't hold water. (
593 days remaining ) people do not leave a party or withhold support just because a particular presidency is coming to an end - they leave a party or withhold support because they are upset by the direction of a party.
And the Dems best take heed - people are also not too happy with what is seen as caving in to bush on the Iraq funding. With no sitting president/vice-president running for office in '08 - the field is open for a real new direction and that new direction may mean voters tossing alot of incumbents, Dems and republics, out the window. The elongated campaign season may also contribute to this as voters become weary of the same rhetoric and no action or worse - more of the same.
Conventional wisdom is leaning towards the '08 presidential seat is the Dems to lose, and assumes the next president will be a Dem. Maybe, if the voters only see a "credible" choice between a dem or a republic. Perot garnering 17% of the vote back in 1992 keeps coming to mind.
Talking to a friend of mine who is a political science professor and specializes in presidential campains maintains that there is no way a 3rd party would win under the current political system. Maybe not, but then again credible 3rd party candidates do make an impact on the outcome if enough voters are disgusted with the dem/republic slates.