Centralized Food Production Collapse

[LeftHander]

Eventually the cost of shipping fresh produce and other consumables from giant production locations like California's central valley will become cost prohibitive. As fuel supplies dwindle and costs rise, our incomes will remain flat, inflation in our food and commodities markets will increase at a ever growing rate. The result will be we will be priced out of the market. This is a reality based on simply supply and demand economics. The demand will only rise, the supply will become more expensive to produce and deliver thus the cost will rise.



California's Central Valley, America's Pantry.

The current trend in food production is not unlike a drug dealer looking to increase profit. Reduce the main ingredient with a inert similar substance. Our processed foods that are highly packaged do just that. As costs rise the product is made more affordable by cutting the actual food down to it's bare minimum and substituting ingredients with easily available inexpensive filler. the cheapest of them are "air" and High Fructose Corn Syrup.

This is the example. As fresh produce become more expensive and volatile in price the poor will purchase less and less of those items. Nutrition falls away and is replaced by "junk" processed food with ingredients of questionable origin from the far east.




Boxed Macaroni and Cheese is a far cry from melted cheese on pasta. Stabilizers, colorants, filler, with added nutrients and massive marketing round out the product.


We will face a food inflation crisis sooner than we think. Already certain food items are priced out of many people's budgets. Peppers, fresh tomatoes, lettuce and fruit are all becoming more costly to the average household thanks to rising petroleum prices. Our agricultural technology was built on cheap oil. We have become highly mechnised and the economy of scale has risen such that many food crops come exclusively from isolated areas in our nation. As we became accustomed to fresh produced from 1000 miles away we lost the ability to utilize our local farm produce. We forgot simple canning techniques and growing. Our local farmers were forced out of the business of producing food for local consumption to producing a ingredient crop that will ship hundreds if not tens of thousands of miles where it is turned into filler. High Fructose corn syrup is one example. Once the local demand for local produced vanished in the 1950's and the supermarket came into being the farmers were forced to adopt crops in keeping with a new global and national scale of food production.

All that is going to change as oil disappears. As fuel prices rise we are left with three choices:

1. Eat less "food" and more filler.
2. Succumb to poor nutrition and bad fatty diets of cheap meat and junk.
3. Begin to grow and produce for local consumption and as consumers seek out that produce.

It is a simple fact. It costs money to ship truckloads of produce 3000 miles. It costs less to ship it 50 miles direct to the consumer.

Prepare for the future.

Seek out you local growers and farmers markets if you haven't already.
Look into local cooperative farming in you area.
Research you local food products, when they are available and how to preserve them.
Eat seasonally, design one or two meals a week based on locally produced food for that time.

It is going to take small steps to grow our local economies. Start by supporting your local farmers directly whenever possible.

Not only for the future but also because it tastes good too.

[villager]

1. growing my first vegetable patch in about five years...

fell out of the habit when my marriage collapsed, and I was "wandering" a bit...

Need to be contemplating the fall/winter garden now, actually.. and hope the bees find their way there!

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. You can have a container garden

even if you don't have a back yard for a larger one. Go to the library and read about container gardens. If you live in a rural area, you can supplement your home grown produce with food gathered from the wild--lamb's quarters is very nutritious and easy to find, and persimmons keep well and are a tasty treat.

[Deja Q]

3. With that tv advert talking about how much less it costs to use existing rail compared to trucking,

this nightmare "fact" scenario you've posted may not happen for decades.

[LeftHander]

6. That is still in my lifetime...and certainly our children's....

Who is going to teach them how to cope? the TV?

[Deja Q]

8. Anything's possible.

And apart from spreading the stories of gloom and doom, what are you going to do to solve the problem?

Think globally, act locally. That's all we can do. AND not let bad news crush us.

As for the TV, why not? Most parents, regardless of reason, aren't. And given the current messages being told on TV, even a TV advert promoting rail transport is far more mature and educational than the actual programming; the bulk of it being empty filth that kids sure as hell shouldn't be watching.

[MisterHowdy]

4. Extremely high gas prices will force us to become more self-productive

Walking, riding bikes,
growing small gardens, eating smarter, consuming less, producing less waste.
There will be rough times throughout the transition but, in time, we will
say that outrageous gas prices were the best thing to ever happen to us.

This, of course, is my wishful thinking.

[Deja Q]

7. The truth is in the middle.

Why else do I find some of these gloom and doom posts to be anti-productive?

Alternatives exist, they can be used, and when TV starts talking about using them you know it's going to work out.

Period.

Besides, bike riding is good for the body. Come August, I've slated my budget to purchase a self-powered transport vehicle for local commuting. (A 3 wheeled bike with storage bin.) There are motorized bikes and the like that use less gas as well.

People shouldn't let doom and gloom dominate their lives. It can cloud judgment and blind people to one mindset. This clearly is not healthy.

[MisterHowdy]

10. well said.

I'm tired of being scarred shitless with all the "peak-oil" doomsday scenarios.

As you say, the truth is in the middle.
No easy miracle alternative fuel will come into play, but also, there will be no chaos and canabalism

Its going to take insanely-high gas prices to get people to stop buying trucks and SUV's
Its going to take these prices to get people to get people to become less excessive.

[LeftHander]

12. Not gloom and doom. Just a gentle poke with a stick...

The red hot poker comes later....I'd rather have the stick myself.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

5. Food storage

You don't have to can food to store it. Many foods can be dried. The advantage is that the dried product can be stored in any clean container. Dried foods weigh less and take up less volume, so you can pack away more of it in the same space you've set aside for cans. Onions are great to dry. You can make fruit leathers out of watermelon (wow, it is FABULOUS dried) and persimmon, and any fruit you wish to puree. Dried apples and pears are great, too.

If you have electricity, don't forget that freezing is another way to preserve food. This is the time of year my neighbors give me zucchini. I make zucchini-crust pizza for now, and grate the extra zucchini and freeze it so I can make zucchini crust pizza later on in the season.

You can even make your own cheese and yogurt. Buy yogurt culture once, then use a bit of your finished yogurt to start a new batch. Use cheesecloth to make yogurt into cheese. I've also used cultured buttermilk in much the same way. Rennet tablets will allow you to make cottage cheese, too.

[Warpy]

9. Some things can be shipped more easily than others

but my guess is that we'll be eating more root veggies and squash and less salads in the future. Out of season stuff will become as pricey as it was always meant to be.

I'm thinking about a small greenhouse in the back yard for winter salads...

[kineneb]

11. eat locally grown foods

Up until now, we have been spoiled by having access to many out-of-season foods, which are shipped long distances. Also, the artificially low cost of fuel has made it economical. What increasing fuel costs mean to our diet is this:

1. The cost of foreign-grown out-of-season fruit and vegetables will go through the roof; result: forget eating Chilean grapes in the middle of winter. You will have to cope with cold-storage apples, canned fruit or dried fruit. This is how I grew up; we canned our own applesauce and ate it through the winter.

2. Fresh fruit and vegetables will have to come from local sources, to be reasonable in cost. If folks have half a brain, the local farmers will plant for their own markets, and not for shipping or "export". There will be more use of Farmers Markets and other direct produce sales. For those of us in California, it will mean little change, but elsewhere, people will need to make adjustments in their diet.

3. Corporate agriculture will become increasingly expensive, as shipping costs absorb some of their profit. Prices on food will go up, as a result, especially processed foods.

In essence, we will return to the eating patterns of previous years, before 1960 or so, when most foods were relatively locally grown.

[LeftHander]

13. Spot on well said...

It starts with food....creating a central "market" then as people gather to shop, other goods become available, locally made clothing, entertainment...etc.

Who knows maybe a "real" culture will develop to replace the existing one projected upon us by TV.

[kineneb]

14. I managed a farmers market,

in the not-too-distant past, and know a bit about both small and large-scale agriculture. Also, many of my ancestors were farmers, and I grew up on my grandparents' "mini-farm" (3/4 acre, planted with 20+ fruit trees, 5 rows of grapes, and lots of row crops). I picked the first yellow squash from my garden today, and am eagerly awaiting fresh tomatoes.

We won't starve, IF we use our intelligence, and learn to be more flexible in our diet.