The Terrorism Index

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http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3700

The Terrorism Index


Six months ago, we launched a groundbreaking new index that asked more than 100 of America's top foreign-policy hands if the United States was winning the war on terror. Their answer? No. Now, surveyed again today, this bipartisan group sees a world that continues to grow more dangerous and a U.S. national security strategy that is failing on several fronts. In the second FOREIGN POLICY/Center for American Progress Terrorism Index, these experts warn that not only is another attack imminent, but that the United States may be distracted from the threats that matter most.

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To help determine whether the United States is growing more or less safe, FOREIGN POLICY and the Center for American Progress teamed up once again to survey more than 100 of America’s top foreign-policy experts—Republicans and Democrats alike—in the second FOREIGN POLICY/Center for American Progress Terrorism Index. First launched last June, the Terrorism Index is the only comprehensive, nonpartisan effort to mine the highest echelons of the nation’s foreign-policy establishment for its assessment of how the United States is fighting the Global War on Terror. Its participants include people who have served as secretary of state and national security advisor, senior White House aides, top commanders in the U.S. military, seasoned intelligence officers, and distinguished academics and journalists. Eighty percent of the experts have served in the U.S. government—more than half in the executive branch, 26 percent in the military, and 18 percent in the intelligence community.

As with the first index six months ago, the results show that America’s foreign-policy community continues to have deep reservations about U.S. policies and priorities in the war on terror. Eighty-one percent see a world that is growing more dangerous for the American people, while 75 percent say the United States is losing the war on terror. Those numbers are down marginally—5 and 9 percentage points respectively—from six months ago. Yet, when asked whether President George W. Bush has a clear plan to protect the United States from terrorism, 7 in 10 experts say no—including nearly 40 percent of those who identified themselves as conservatives. More than 80 percent of the experts continue to expect a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11 within a decade, a result that is unchanged from six months ago.

Index participants continued to criticize a number of the United States’ key national security priorities, including public diplomacy, homeland security, and energy policy. Only one policy—Iraq—received poorer reviews from the respondents than did public diplomacy. Fully 87 percent of the experts said America’s public diplomacy is failing, and nearly half said that failure is the result of poor leadership and ineffective policies. In fact, leaders and their policies apparently matter a great deal to U.S. national security. In the last index, nearly all of the departments and agencies responsible for fighting the war on terror received below-average marks. This time, however, 6 of 9 received above-average rankings, including the Central Intelligence Agency and Defense Department, both of which have welcomed new chiefs since the last index survey was conducted.

The experts did not show a similar optimism when it came to Iraq, however, even as the White House is sending in more troops. Eighty-eight percent of the experts believe that the war in Iraq is having a negative impact on U.S. national security. Just 19 percent of respondents believe that the strategy of deploying more troops in Baghdad is a good idea. Perhaps more importantly, 92 percent said that the Bush administration’s performance on Iraq has been below average, with nearly 6 in 10 experts of all political stripes saying the Bush administration is doing the “worst possible job” in Iraq.

These pessimistic conclusions would be less troubling if a majority of the experts did not also believe that Iraq is distracting the United States from more dangerous threats. More than two thirds of the experts say that Iraq is not the central front in the war on terrorism. In fact, given the choice between securing and stabilizing Iraq and ridding North Korea of its nuclear weapons, more experts say dealing with Pyongyang is the most important U.S. foreign-policy objective of the next five years. It’s a reminder that, just as America learned on September 11, the threats that are ignored are often the most dangerous.

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