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Don’t count me among them. What I am looking for in a candidate now I simply am not finding. Of those who actually might have or could still run in 2008, I think Al Gore, Wes Clark, Russ Feingold, or John Kerry would be more to my liking than those who are now running. And that is just sticking to those who at one point or another expressed any possibility of running in 2008; it’s not a fantasy list. There’s not a Bill Bradley, Mario Cuomo, or George Mitchell among them. OK, I will grant you that John Kerry was unlikely to be embraced again by our Party as our standard bearer so quickly on the heels of his failure to secure the White House in 2004, but there are many in our party who do still yearn for his experience and leadership. And while I disagreed with him about the importance of learning from our mistakes on how we got into Iraq, Mark Warner was a formidable potential leader too. On a "good day" I might include Warner also in the field that should have run instead of the one we now have. So why am I not impressed with those now being offered to us?
OK, Count me in the group that says Barack Obama is our future, but now is too soon for Obama to become President, even though he does have amazing potential and some significant accomplishments. While I do have a few issues to pick with Obama, I won’t even go there now because I just don't think America should or will (given the right options) elect as President in the next Presidential election a man who was a relatively junior member of a State legislature during the last Presidential election. If we believe that America needs to become color blind, and not discriminate against people of color because of their color, than I can't in good conscience overlook Obama's relative lack of experience simply because I support people of color running for President. The only way Obama’s thin resume looks good is compared to a thick resume that documents a record of wrong choices, and that is exactly how I will have to defend Obama in 2008 if he ends up as our nominee.
Regarding John Edwards, I believe that he continues to evolve, in positive ways, as an American leader. We are indeed fortunate that this man, and his true life partner Elizabeth, decided to make their deep commitment to public service, and that they are willing to champion the issue of poverty in America. John Edwards concedes himself that he is a much more seasoned candidate for President this time than he was last time, and that points to my concern. John Edwards, in my opinion, wasn't ready to be President in 2004, but he still focused on that goal for years prior with laser like intensity. He has more experience now, in regards to international affairs and national security, than he did then, but not that much more. I don't think Edwards is best suited for the Presidency. In some key areas I do not believe that the solidness of Edward's judgment under fire is buttressed enough with sufficient life experience to assure that he instinctively will make the right call when needed. My concern remains centered on international issues. I increasingly trust Edwards on domestic concerns, which has always been the focus of his interest.
I think John Edwards has an important future before him as a leading American voice of conscience and as an inspirational leader of a movement for social justice here at home. Even putting my concerns aside, however, I do not see Edwards as a strong Presidential candidate. He is not winning over the Democratic Party outside of his current base among left leaning activists, and outside of Iowa which has virtually become his second home over the last few years. He offers the Republican Party a tempting target IMO, because of inconsistencies between his positions of today and those of his Senate days, and because he has symbolically given Republicans too much cheap shot material to work with in challenging his sincerity. Edwards had massive positive publicity carry over from his 2004 run, but he has been unable to capitalize on it. It is telling that only Edwards core supporters make the case that Edwards was an impressive campaigner running with John Kerry in 2004, and mostly they blame Kerry for not letting Edwards be Edwards, rather than argue that he truly sparkled. Obama, coming out of virtually nowhere, was able to quickly eclipse Edwards in appeal this time, and I think that speaks as much to Edward's weaknesses as a candidate as it does to Obama's strengths. John Edwards does as well as he does today, I believe, only because the activist base of the Democratic Party desperately needs a champion, and men like Kerry, Clark, Gore and Feingold staying out of the race gives Edwards much support out of default.
Hillary Clinton IS a strong candidate and I would argue that she really is the only strong candidate in the current field, which is the only reason why someone with her amazingly high negatives in polling can continue to top 2008 polls. Hillary polarizes voters more so than any other leading Democrat. She is running a very polished, very competent campaign. She has a very strong, very experienced team behind her. I think her 8 years spent as a first lady with real access to the inner workings of her husband's administration does give her credibility regarding seasoning and experience that the other leading Democratic candidates lack. Her negatives though are major. I am by far not alone in the Democratic Party activist base being unhappy to think about backing her. She let me down on Iraq, I don't trust her on Iran, and she is much cozier than I will ever be with the Corporate wing of our Party.
A distaste for Hillary felt by many activists will be a significant handicap against her winning in 2008 should she become our nominee. I would work for Hillary as our nominee, I would even work hard for Hillary, but I know in my heart that I would work much harder for someone who I believed in more. I'm sorry, but that is just how I'm wired, and I know I'm not alone that way. Meanwhile Republicans LOVE to hate Hillary, should she become our Party's nominee she will be a healing tonic to the G.O.P. Most Americans barely even like Hillary. No one else has her negatives. So though I admit that Hillary is a strong candidate, she is no titan, and she isn't even a Bill Clinton. Rather she carries his baggage along with her own.
Of the remaining field only Bill Richardson had potential break out appeal in my mind, and his own performance to date has been woefully underwhelming. That happens sometimes. Bob Graham looked great on paper, and he was popular in his home state, but he could not impress voters away from home. Richardson is not an inspirational leader, and he is not connecting well with most voters. I like Richardson's seasoning and track record on World affairs. I sure as hell don't like his role in suppressing the 2004 recount in his home state however, and I don't like the fact that he spent way too long backing Gonzales as Attorney General either. Richardson has been more of a disappointment than he has been a strong candidate. I think the only reason he still gets the support he gets now is BECAUSE of the weakness of our field, not despite it.
Same goes for Biden. The weakness of the rest of the field gives him his best excuse for running, because Joe Biden is well past his public prime. Joe Biden is kind of like a thrift store male version of Hillary Clinton, except without her charisma if you can wrap your mind around that one. He sure can’t count on progressive support. To paraphrase a favorite slogan of a leading credit card issuer: "Who's in your wallet?” And while I am glad that Denis Kucinich is running again, to have his voice in the public debate, if Denis can't effectively compete in his own home state primary, he won't be our next President. Speaking of Chris Dodd, since everyone and his uncle refuse to even mention his name after 6 months of active campaigning and a few public debates, those arguing for the strength of this field won’t score any debating points pointing to Senator Dodd, who now is being outpolled by two Democratic non candidates; Al Gore and Wes Clark.
Then there is that nagging little matter about a bunch of current and recently ex United States Senators supposedly comprising such an unbeatable line up for Democrats. JFK was the last candidate from any Party to gain the Presidency after serving in the United States Senate without cycling through the Vice Presidency first. And it’s not like plenty of Senators haven’t tried and failed to pull off that feat in the 48 years since. I’m not saying that 2008 won’t be the year when a Senator finally wins; I’m just saying it is one more significant data point to refer to in countering the argument that our current field of candidates is such a powerful one. I strongly suspect that many Democrats are confusing the relatively strong position of the national Democratic Party today, after 6+ years of George W. Bush failing as President, with offering a sterling group of candidates for President now. It is the Democratic Party which is strong today, not our Presidential candidates. A generic unnamed Democrat performs far more favorably in matchups against a similar Republican, from a Democrat’s perspective, than when we plug in some real names of those now running.
In closing let me say that an impressive display of affirmative action in action does not a strong field make. I have seen the wonderful generic genetic diversity of our current line up of Democratic Presidential candidates used to prop up the argument that our current field is so powerful. It is a wonderful thing, granted, that our Party has so many diverse candidates of arguably Presidential caliber. But we will not elect a demographic expression in 2008; we will elect that single individual President who manages to win the confidence of more Americans than whomever else is running against him or her.
It serves the interest of those who back one of the current candidates running to argue that the bus is full, the train left the station, the bell has sounded, and the horses are out of the gate. It is in the interests of those who back any of our current candidates to discourage support for Al Gore and/or Wes Clark to still enter the 2008 Democratic race for President. Taking a small bit of liberty with a liberty already once taken by Pete Seeger, let me hereby misquote: “To every season; spin, spin spin, there is an ending; spin, spin, spin, and a purpose to claim that said ending was upon us.” Yeah, sure, but not in June of 2007, not with this field anyway.
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