The huge problem with Tsunami Tuesday that will make you think twice (with calendar link)

[Perky]

http://www.nass.org/

For whatever it is worth. a long drawn out primary schedule provides a real vetting of top tier candidates. If someone gets a head of steam going into mega-Tuesday it might all be over by 2/6. rendering the last 20 tilts meaningless or at best "pro-forma". I don't mind a supur duper Tuesday. I just don't like it being so close to the first five contests. We do not really have a second chance if the presumptive self-implode on 2/10.


If we had mega-tuesday at the end of February I would be less fearful of what might occur.

But consider a scenario where our top three are essentially tied at 25% after Iowa and Edwards wins Nevada because he put in the most time there with the casino workers. Hillary gets to 30% in NH but Obama and Edwards tie for second. Next up is South Carolina and Florida. Obama Surges in South Carolina and in Florida Richardson pulls 22% and Hillary finishes fourth at 20% and Obama and Edwards both have 25%. The remaining 8 percent gets split

No clear frontrunner going into super tuesday just three days later and there is a presidential debate the night before the Superbowl and it wind up getting very ugly. No presumptive going into 2/5 and no presumptive afterwords and no way to lock it up with what is left to divvy up.

The scary thing about this is that in times past the "dead period" is the time when the presumptive goes out with everyone's fundrasing lists and starts raising megabucks for the fall campaign. The convention is not until the end of August, 2008 (done so that that the presumptive nominee can get more money before being officially tapped) Now those dollars are going to be fought over tooth and naileffectively killing the ability to amass a big war chest for the battle with the GOP.

Clinton can't really turn those dollars over to Obama or the party or vice versa. Even more so if the nomination process turns into a bloodbath and polarizes the party they would not want to do it even if they could.

Mind you that the GOP is in the precisely the same place and maybe even worse off. But still frontloading the primaries could create a stalemate situation that hurts the eventual nominee.

[DURHAM D]

1. Do you know where I can see a map of the primary schedule

and includes caucus vs. direct voting info?

[Perky]

2. Here is the link

http://www.nass.org/

National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS)
Calendar of 2008 State Primaries/Caucuses
Last updated: June 12, 2007
NOTE: This calendar is a working draft based upon national party information, state election office reporting and credible media
reports. Dates are subject to frequent changes. State dates that are under consideration but not yet finalized list the state in bold
italics. States with an asterisk (*) beside their name have indicated that their contest could move to another date (in the case of New
Hampshire, the Secretary of State has not officially set the date), but have not provided alternative dates. Some states are not
included because they have not provided information to the NASS office regarding their primary/caucus dates.
2008 Presidential Nominating Calendar
JANUARY 2008
• January 8: District of Columbia
• January 14: Iowa (caucuses)*
• January 19: Nevada (caucuses)
• January 22: New Hampshire (primary)*, Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
• January 29: Florida, South Carolina (Dem primary)
FEBRUARY 2008
• February 2: South Carolina (GOP primary)*
• February 5: Alabama, Alaska (caucuses), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses),
Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico,
New York, North Carolina, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island,
Tennessee, Utah
• February 9: Louisiana
• February 10: Maine (Dem caucuses)
• February 12: Maryland, Virginia
• February 19: Washington, Wisconsin
• February 26: Hawaii (Dem caucuses), Idaho (Dem caucuses)
MARCH 2008
• March 2: Hawaii (GOP caucuses)
• March 4: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, Texas, Vermont
• March 11: Mississippi
• March 21: Maine (GOP caucuses)
APRIL 2008
• April 22: Pennsylvania <1See note below for alternative dates under consideration>
MAY 2008
• May 6: Indiana
• May 10: Wyoming (Dem caucuses)
• May 13: Nebraska (primary), West Virginia
• May 20: Kentucky
• May 27: Idaho (primary)
JUNE 2008
• June 3: Montana, South Dakota
AUGUST 2008
• August 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado
SEPTEMBER 2008
• September 1-4: Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota
NOTE: State(s) that have opted not to hold a presidential primary election in 2008: Kansas
1 According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, the following dates are under consideration: Feb. 5, Feb. 12 and March 4.

[DURHAM D]

5. Thanks - I missed the link on first read.

Have you seen any place that lists the number of delegates for each state to the convention? Do you know the total number of delegates? Didn't Dean say something about not seating the Florida delegation?

[rzemanfl]

3. Wouldn't this scenario be the perfect time for Gore to step up

to the plate?

[Perky]

4. At a brokered convention or during the primaries?