Congress at 14% approval? Well... maybe not.

[OilemFirchen]

Whilst subjected to my day-long feast of Boortz, Limbaugh (Hedgecock), and Hannity, I was fed regular morsels of a new Gallup poll suggesting (their words) that Congress had hit an all-time low "approval" level of 14%. Their contention? That, yeah, well, maybe *'s approval is a bit on the lowish side, but lookee here! The Dems are even worse!

I've seen similar sentiments here.

But is it really true? Uh, no.

First, any such poll is a measure of the entire Congress which, at last check, is about halvsies Dem and Rep. So, while it's statistically possible that the Dems are the cause, it's also, at least theoretically, possible that the Reps register zero "approval", and that, accordingly, the Dems register 28% "approval". The reverse, of course, is just as possible. Or the public's perception of both parties is about the same.

Second, this is not an "approval" poll - it's a "confidence" poll. And while equally as devastating, 'taint the same thing. And unlike an approval poll, which shows a more meaningful "disapproval" number, there is no comparable "no-confidence" number touted.

Why is that?

While approval polls tend to lump together "strongly approve" and "approve" as "approve", Gallup aggregates "great deal" and "quite a lot" to arrive at "confidence". But aren't there other options? Reading Gallup's Americans' Confidence in Congress at All-Time Low, one wouldn't think so. No internals are provided, so one is left guessing.

But a previous, comparable poll, taken June 1-4, 2006, shows that, indeed there are other choices, namely "some", "very little", "none", and "no opinion". And we find that Congress (roughly halvsies the other way) registered a measly 19% confidence, by their standards, but a remarkable 44% had "some" confidence in Congress. That sounds like a 63% confidence level, certainly as compared to the methodology of an "approval" poll.

And what else do we find? That the President, while registering a more respectable 33% confidence, only inspired "some" 25% confidence, for a total of 58% - lower than Congress. And the important numbers? As goes very little plus no confidence, Congress hits a walloping 35%, with the esteemed prexy blazing ahead with 40%.

Now let's compare what we know today. Congress's "confidence" rating is 14%. The President? 25%. Since we don't have other useful data, let's assume that, while Congress dropped 5% YoY, their actual confidence rating is now 58%. The monkeyboy? He dropped 8%, so his actual confidence is at 50%. That's assuming, of course, that the slippage wasn't into the "some" category and, accordingly, that it slithered into the "very little" and/or "none". Which would mean Congress' "no-confidence" rate is now at 40%, and * is at 48%.

Lotsa text (sorry 'bout that), but it actually suggests two conclusions:

Congress is still more highly regarded than *, and

Gallup's poll is bullshit anyway.

[Johonny]

1. The real poll question for congress are

What would cause you to have more confidence in Congress a return to Republican majority or a veto proof Democratic majority?

[OilemFirchen]

2. Or...

Did you lose confidence because the Dems are spineless, or because the Reps are obstructionists?

Better yet: Are you just cranky today? (As per my "confidence" in this poll.)

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. The congressional poll is always utter bullshit.

Might as well ask "Do you like your boss?"

[VP505]

4. One factor that

needs to be considered is the "sore looser" RePukes, Libertarians and Greens. I don't know if its possible to know how many contribute to that low approval rating but I would bet its enough to make the numbers look a lot worse that what they really are.

[Prisoner_Number_Six]

5. 14% seems a little high to me.

:shrug:

[Snotcicles]

6. Why did they start tracking Congress approval polls?

I don't remember anybody tracking the old Congress approval polls.
Oh yeah, the Republicans were in control, thats right.

[frogcycle]

7. apoproval, or lack thereof, of Congress

is a phony measure. Very few people are going to say "I approve of Congress as a whole". The RW'ers are going to give it a zero because the dems took over; the lefties are going to give it a zero because it still has too many RWers, and the lefties are too timid.