Third straight month of 100+ US killed in Iraq

[alcibiades_mystery]

Today the number of US KIA's for the Iraq theater in the month of June, 2007 reached 100 ( http://icasualties.org/oif/ ). It is thus the third straight month of 100 or more US KIA's, as 104 were killed in April and 126 in May. Bush wasn't kidding about the "cruel summer" that US troops, their families, and the nation as a whole will see as a result of his flagging surge strategy. Just for some context, in the FORTY-NINE months preceding the 3 month period in question, only FIVE months saw 100+ killed (and two of those occurred in October and December of 2006).

Here are some longer term historical considerations:

Number of months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 45
Number of 100+ KIA months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 3
Percent 100+ KIA months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 6.6%

Number of months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 9
Number of 100+ KIA months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 5
Percent 100+ KIA months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 55%

Let's drop it to 80+

Number of months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 45
Number of 100+ KIA months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 10
Percent 100+ KIA months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 22%

Number of months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 9
Number of 100+ KIA months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 8
Percent 100+ KIA months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 88%

And 70+

Number of months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 45
Number of 70+ KIA months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 15
Percent 70+ KIA months March 2003 to SEPTEMBER 2006: 33.3%

Number of months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 9
Number of 70+ KIA months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 9
Percent 70+ KIA months OCTOBER 2006 to JUNE 2007: 100%

There is your SURGE....

[TriSec]

1. Surge of death.

Wouldn't it stand to reason that if we "surge" more troops over there, we're giving them more targets?

[bdamomma]

2. more bodies and more needless death, * should be thrown out!

x 3568 3571 the count now.

[Solly Mack]

...

...

[ananda]

3. so what is the disease metaphor

Toxic septicemia and tropical malaise?
Post traumatic stress disorder leading
to the kind of depression that results in
inaction?

[frogcycle]

4. to further illustrate...

for reasons not entirely clear, every year since the war/occupation began there has been a significant "dip" in casualties in the feb/march period.

the lowest number this year - 80 in feb - is more than twice the minimums of previous "dips" So the months of jan-mar, although below 100, were actually high.

I calculate a 6-month moving average (purple line in graph below). It peaked at 91 in Jan '05 following several months of big numbers during the Fallujah campaign. Since then it had oscillated until Aug '06, at which point it started climbing steadily. In January it hit 90, and since then has continued to rise, now at 106.

that is an average of 106/month for six months.

The average per month over the entire war/occupation (blue line) is just under 69 (3580 over 52 months). That number is creeping up, but does not tell the story.

[racaulk]

5. Is the insurgency in its final throes yet?

:eyes:

[Tesha]

6. Don't worry -- soon, even this will seem like "the good old days". (NT)

[frogcycle]

7. sadly, I fear you are right

there is every indication that they have NO INTENTION of actually pacifying the place, nor of leaving.

They are divvying Baghdad up into egg-carton-like compartments using concrete barriers - pretty much like throwing in the towel on any aim to achieve peace, more like building a zoo. Clearly not something with an end in sight. And a general was bragging about 'stunning successes' or words to that effect the other day - the building of barriers - that get 'obscured by the continuing violence'. If more concrete barriers are 'stunning successes' then clearly we are in for a long, long haul, and a continuing "shooting gallery" parade of casualties, as they send our troops out to drive around drawing fire and IED attacks.

There is NO frigging plan, nor intention, to end this thing. It is a cash cow for Halliburton. They have a p/l statement to maintain, and their stockholders would be disappointed if total revenues were to taper off due to a troop reduction.

[frogcycle]

8. more and more stories of evidently competent snipers

"Marine Cpl. Derek C. Dixon, 20, of Riverside, who was killed in Iraq on Tuesday, was shot while he was working at a vehicle checkpoint in the city of Saqlawiyah.

The round entered under his left arm above his armored vest and went into his chest, said Marine Maj. David Slack, spokesman for the Dayton-based Marine Reserve's Military Police Company C. A casualty call officer with the unit notified Dixon's family of his death in western Iraq."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/news/local/2007/06/29/ddn062907marinefolo.html

of course, I don't see stories of rounds stopped by body armor or helmets, so maybe the recent spate of headshots and ones like this are just due to "luck" with more volume of attempts. Somehow, though, I suspect there is a decent quality sniper school in operation working against our guys.

These are the same damned people who supposedly need an infinite amount of additional time to be trained before they can take responsibility for protecting their own country. Crap!

Wherever this shooter was hiding, odds are some locals knew it. If his only available targets had been Iraqis, he'd probably have been exposed.

[Quantess]

9. K & R!

Sad.