Larry Johnson: Real Washington Whispers

[cal04]

Recent conversations with several friends have turned up some pretty interesting news, some that is not yet in the public record.

1. Michael Bloomberg is running for President: Bloomberg recently had lunch with David Boren, former Senator and a Democrat from Oklahoma. Bloomberg told Boren he is running for President. This will split the vote of Democrats and Independents and will boost the chance that Fred Thompson will be the next President. A well plugged in Republican friend of mine is betting that the final slate of candidates will be Hillary, Thompson, and Bloomberg. Thompson will reap the reward for Bloomberg's third party candidacy.

2. More members of Congress face bribery indictments: At least five Republicans and one Democrat, John Murtha, are going to be indicted for bribery. The Department of Justice essentially has criminalized earmarks. Members of Congress who have accepted political contributions and then placed earmarks in legislation are on the chopping block. In the past this was normal practice in the lobbying community. On this issue at least the Bush Administration Justice Department is not playing to partisan favorites.

3. Another prominent Republican Senator will break this week with the Bush Administration's policy on Iraq. The tide has turned and the Bush policy is going beneath the waves like the Titanic.

4. Neocons burrowing into the Thompson campaign. If you loved Bush Cheney your going to be thrilled with Fred Thompson. It is not simple happenstance that Liz Cheney, Mary Matalin, and Mark Carallo are playing key roles in the nascent campaign. U.S. Ambassador Michael Retzer also is leaving his post to work on the Thompson campaign. In fact (you'll love this), based on work I did in 1996 on the Dole campaign I got a call asking if I was interested in working on the Thompson campaign. I told my friend that Thompson's enabling of Scooter Libby disqualified him from any serious consideration for President as far as I am concerned.

5. Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer are not speaking. The majority of Americans believe Dick Cheney and George Bush should be impeached. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, says no. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, I am told by someone familiar with the inner workings of the House, favors proceeding with impeaching Cheney. But Nancy says no. Pelosi is being described by some as Tom Delay in a skirt, in terms of her refusal to pay attention to what the majority of Americans want.


http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/07/real-washington.html

[splat]

1. Bloomberg running splits the white-guy-only vote, helps Hillary n/t

[SoCalDem]

10. In some quarters, the choice between a "woman and a Jewish man" means Fred wins.

Republicans know this.. Look back to Joe Lieberman's "strength" in the '00 election. There still are many anti-semites in some parts of this country and we all know that some men (and women) would NEVER vote for a woman..any woman.

Rationality and common sense play very little parts in election. Many people vote on "gut instinct".. That's how Reagan Democrats came to be, and why so many people claim to be "independent"..

[John Q. Citizen]

20. Naw, Lieberman is a very bad example. He was brought on to help win Florida, which he did.

And to shore up the so-called "morals mess' from the Clinton presidency. The math was there in 2000 for the Dems, but the Repos just flat out stole the whole thing, in Florida.

You are correct about gender politics. There isn't a real constituency for it. Lot's of liberal women who would vote for a woman they liked, in a heartbeat, in fact would love to vote for a woman they like, won't support Hillary because they don't like some good portion of her politics, such as her economic corporatism and her hawkish stand on defense, Iraq, Iran, her Empire-America proclivities.

Reagan reaped and exploited the benefits of Nixon's Southern strategy, which was to divide and conquer economically depressed blacks and whites. Basically it's a racists stradedgy. It's the cornerstone of inmate control in our prison system, so why not in our society in general?

[spooky3]

25. and your evidence is...?

1) L may have been brought on board to help win FL, and Gore-L won Florida (despite the USSC), but how do you know that Gore would not have won it with a better VP candidate? And, the % of voters who are Jewish is tiny (I believe less than 5% of the electorate), and they vote overwhelmingly Democratic in nearly every election.

2) I'm not sure I understand what you meant by "correct about gender politics." There are many women here at DU who have said exactly what you said about disagreement with Clinton's politics, although that's true for nearly any candidate, and I would like to think that liberal men would also vote for the best candidate regardless of gender. In *nearly* every Pres. election, women have voted more strongly Dem. than do men (if we can believe the exit polls), and sometimes the gap is sizable. Further, single/divorced/widowed women are strongly Dem; the major problem for Democrats is that unmarried people and younger people, regardless of gender, do not turn out and vote to the same extent as do married people. This will be a problem for any Dem. candidate and I wish they would start addressing this as the non-married group is much larger than most people realize. I am not sure what the data say about women's vs. men's preferences among this year's Dem. candidates but if you do, it would be great to see them.

I agree with you if what you meant was that people do not necessarily vote their own demographics; as far as I know, that is what the data show, but obviously there have been far fewer choices for non-white males to vote/not vote their own demographics.

[John Q. Citizen]

30. 5% of the electorate was huge in Florida in 2000. it's a matter of the math. It was the

key to Florida and the whole election. Only 5% was win or lose, for sure, if you could get a significant portion of that 5%. Both the Dems and the Repos did the math, and they both knew whoever won Florida was going to win the election. They knew this at least a month or more out.

JL has long been perceived as a long time staunch supporter and friend of Israel, and the Jewish population in Florida tends to be retired. They vote, and they care particularly about Israel.

What other running mate would have been better for Gore in 2000, in Florida? Who also wouldn't have changed the math elsewhere? Who was campaign tested and vetted? Who was relatively well known?

I'm not a Lieberman fan, I'm not even a strong supporter of Israel (I think they have a right to exist, at this point in time, but I think their government is dead wrong on a lot of stuff, like occupation of the territories, settlement expansion, etc.) But I can't come up with a better running mate given all the variables and the importance of Florida to a win. We already knew the fundies were voting bush, the Repos, and the Cubans. So where else to find the winning margin? bush took out about 50,000 black voters with the bogus felony list, we weren't going to improve there with a choice of running mate. The Cubans are demographically solidly in the Repo camp. Who would have been better from a winning strategy point of view?


2) Gender politics used to be a very big deal in the 70's, sisterhood, women working together, which is great. But except for a relative handful of votes in this country, gender hasn't ever transfered into a reliable voting block, for either gender. There was focus group and polling data from the 80's which found that men were more likely to say that they would vote for a women for president, than women would. An actual candidate wasn't used in the studies, just "would you ever vote for a women for president?" More men replied yes. I haven't seen any recent data on this, and this may have changed. Or it may not have.

[John Q. Citizen]

18. Lots of women will vote for the white guy only. Women make up the majority of

voters, and have for a long time.

Ever wonder why no woman has been elected President or Vice-President before?

The myth of gender politcs is just that.

Bloomberg hurts Clinton because they are both social liberals on wedge issues (guns abortion,gays) and economic corporitist.

That's my take, anyway.

So how reliable is this Johnson guy, as to his sources and his predictions?

If he's on the money, the Dems need to nominate a real social AND economic liberal, and a populist, man or woman. Then Bloomberg would split the corporitist vote with Thompson, and we'd win big.

[Greeby]

2. On No.5

Given their respective actions and voting records, I'd suggest it's probably the other way around

[Truth2Tell]

3. Most interesting item here?

Hoyer supporting impeachment of Cheney.

Most speculative and maybe wrong?

Hillary getting the Dem nom.

The rest - yep, check, check, check and check.

[Annces]

4. Nancy Pelosi as Tom Delay - OMG n/t

[stellanoir]

5. Don't get Thompson's appeal at all.

Seems like another simian sort. More gorilla than chimp.

No offense to simians. . .just don't want to be governed by unenlightened primates any more really.

[NoodleyAppendage]

8. It's all about a strong "daddy" image for the scared sh*tless Repukes and Xofascists.

Repukes always look for the "daddy" figure to make all their troubles go away. Thompson is a perfect choice for their wimp idiocy.

J

[John Q. Citizen]

21. He certainly beats out McCain in that regard. McCain is kind of the senile grand dad,

a former daddy figure who is now retired, off his game, maybe off his rocker and has lost his alpha credentials.

[splat]

15. They are running him as his Law and Order character n/t

[me b zola]

33. We should counter with the charactor he played on Roseanne

After Clooney left 'Roseanne', they brought in a new boss at the Wellman Plastic factory. Thompson was an obnoxious, horrible boss that made the workplace unbearable for the workers and ended with a mass walk-off of the workers.

[K8-EEE]

32. To me he seems downright stupid.....

Of course, GWB always seemed that way to me too. It's actually a strength for a certain segment of the GOP "base" to not be too smart (that's "elitist" doncha know!) I remember in 2000 the "GWB don't need no fancy words" contingent. I myself think intellegence and basic communication skills should be job requirements for President of the United States, but I don't vote in the GOP primary!

[JDPriestly]

6. Bloomberg needs a good talking to.

Why would he want to spoil the Democrats chance to win? Does he think that Democrats won't support Israel if elected? Democrats need to find out what is motivating Bloomberg and get him under the Democratic umbrella. Is Bloomberg an Iraq War supporter? I had the impression he was not.

I really don't think Bloomberg will draw many votes from outside New York. He is an unknown, and Democrats are pretty intent on winning regardless of which candidate prevails in the primaries.

As for Independents voting for Thompson. Unlikely. Thompson can't have his cake and eat it too. That is, he can't be the candidate of the far right, the successor to Bush and still draw Independents. Independents are sick of Bush and they are not going to vote for someone who links himself to Bush. Independents are sick of the far right, and they are not going to vote for anyone who panders to the far right. Independents will be drawn to the Democratic candidate because of issues like health care, human rights, Iraq and the environment. Independents have voted for Republicans because it seemed the safe, cautious thing to do. After Katrina and global warming, the fiasco in Iraq, Terry Schiavo, Plame, Cunningham, and all the other scandals and fiascoes that have sullied the reputation of the Bush administration and Republicans in general, voters are going to want a change more than anything.

Bloomberg is a New Yorker. Sorry, but, as a general rule, New Yorkers are not liked in other parts of the country -- with the exception of comedians who are from New York. Ultimately, Giuliani is going to have the same problem. The polls don't show it now, but just give it time. Bloomberg is not electable, and he won't draw votes from anyone who would vote for a Democrat. He could pose a formidable threat to Giuliani on the Republican side.

Nader drew a lot of votes from Independents and Democrats in 2000 who were angry at Clinton because of the allegations against him and because there was a feeling that there was no difference between voting for a Democrat or a Republican. Very few would say that there is no difference between voting for a Democrat or a Republican today.

Bloomberg should save his money and his energy. He will garner votes in New York, but not much of anywhere else. Democrats and Independents fell for the third party ruse in 2000, and look where we ended up. Democrats are not likely to fall for that ploy again.

We all want the Bushies and their ilk out. Thompson has no substance. He is a wishy washy guy. He has the appearance of yet another bully. He can't get nominated unless he has the support of the extreme right. Independents are not going to buy what he has to sell in order to get the nomination. Democrats and Independents are more scared of the Republican right than of anything else right now.

[John Q. Citizen]

23. Are you saying independants won't vote for an independant if he's from New York?

My guess is that by the time the general comes around, if Bloomberg runs he will be very well known. I mean, Thompson, who the hell was he last year?

[JDPriestly]

38. Thompson is a Republican.

He is a TV star. He is well known.

[pacalo]

7. My thoughts...

Larry knows Washington better than I, but my gut feelings differ...

1. I think the overall public majority would not want another Rethug presidency for a long time. Bloomberg will be as good for Thompson as Perot was for Poppy Bush. And now that Poppy's boy-king son is the face of the Rethug party, the Rethugs are history.

2. I'm disappointed about John Murtha, but I want to learn more about his circumstances.

3. Excellent.

4. It took a lot of gall to ask Larry to work on Thompson's campaign; there's no end to their gall. I hope that the Plame case isn't the only reason for which Larry disqualified his consideration.

5. The fact that Steny Hoyer wants to move on to impeachment proceedings makes me wonder if Nancy Pelosi has been threatened by the boy king cabal. This was very eye-opening.

[John Q. Citizen]

24. Well, is #5 or any of the other true? Or not? Hard to say. Time will tell......

[peacetalksforall]

9. How are they going to get the vote of fervent religious believers for Thompson?

Abortion record - three times married and now to a very young women?

Some of those voters are going to fail unless Pat Robertson and Dobson types talk them into it.

The obsession Republicans have for Hollywood actors amuses me.

Does anyone have a side-by-side comparison of Reagan and Thompson (all the things Republicans love about their adored actor, Reagan, and where Thompson stands)?

I think if Larry is talking to the media - they will say Hillary Clinton no matter what.

Which kinds of Republicans would vote for Bloomberg?

Would Bloomberg pick a Republican for a nominee or a Dem? Male or female? Christian or not? 'White' or not?

Bloomberg - replacing Nader?

Some self-declared 'leaders' sure shift around.

We should just call it the way it is - instead of Dem-Repub - just call it Corporate-Military Party and the Corporate-Military Party Contained.

[TomClash]

11. "A well-plugged Republican friend of mine"

I call plant.

[Annces]

12. Hmm

Yes I think Larry Johnson cares powerfully about the troops, but I do not quite get his political instincts.

[TomClash]

34. He is pretty conservative after all nt

[SpiralHawk]

14. "Well-plugged republicon" description fits Jeff Gannon

the Bush White House male prostitute, who -- according to the official Secret Service records, check it out if you doubt -- visited Commander AWOL's corrupt White House over 200 times, with several suspicious overnight visits...

http://www.americablog.com/2005/02/man-called-jeff.html

"well plugged" Republicon chickenhawk hero, White House male prostitute, and pretend Marine, Jeff Gannon:

[InkAddict]

13. I take it you switched flag colors?

"In fact (you'll love this), based on work I did in 1996 on the Dole campaign I got a call asking if I was interested in working on the Thompson campaign."

I don't understand what's up w/Madame Speaker? Obviously, DEMS have plenty of power-grabbing precedents/interpretations to up-end the opposition following an election, not sayin' I'd be entirely happy to see the Dems use those kinds of tactics, but....What's wrong with some major pre-convention damage control? IMO, it's imperative the House joins forces the Senate to step-up and make this admin. mind their Ps&Qs before anything more truly awful can occur, if that's even possible, and I worry it is a distinct possibility. Perhaps the SCOTUS would also be hemmed in from detrimental rulings by the power of "on-going investigations!" We need to use whatever tools of the Constitution are still available to FIGHT against the tyranny of an unchecked Executive and his Vice mob. What am I not getting? Oh yeah, we don't have the votes????? We don't want to know the answers to the tough questions and we'd just be fluffing up that loose sand that got in Fitzgerald's eyes?

Someone please tell me how much more of this :puke: can we need to eat!

[Peace Patriot]

16. Re: Murtha (#2) - As with torture, as with bombing raids, as with firing US attorneys,

as with election fraud, as with outing not just one CIA agent but an entire WMD counter-proliferation network (there were TWO outings, one of Plame, then of the foreign network of agents/contacts), and other events, the Bush Junta characteristically sends up a lot of flak to cover their real purposes and targets. John Murtha was pivotal in turning the tide within the political establishment against their heinous, illegal corporate resource war in Iraq. He is the real target. And it is simply not believable--indeed, it is totally ludicrous--that the Bush Junta would suddenly "get religion" about earmarks and start promoting the notion of honest government.

Give me a break.

It's quite interesting how many of their own the Bushites have set up for prosecution--either by deliberately recruiting highly corruptible candidates, or merely by letting the lower echelons run rampant. Corrupt people are highly manipulable (as to their votes, for instance). And a lot of these lower echelon Republicans are also very expendable. Also, keep in mind that the Bush Junta has been engaged in massive domestic spying without a warrant, and no doubt in black ops to set people up for blackmail--and that all investigations and prosecutions are under their control, in agencies they have purged and filled with toadies. We really cannot trust ANYTHING the FBI or the DoJ says or does, nor ANY war profiteering corporate news monopoly reporting of it--even when the target is someone we despise. We really don't know, and can't know, what is really going on.

---------

On the other items in this rumor report. Washington is...how shall I describe it?...a snakepit of lies, deception, backstabbing and corruption. It has never been a very nice place (not since atomic bombs were invented and the president became the emperor with all life on earth in his hands; or, if you don't like that as a benchmark, not since JFK was assassinated). Under the Bush Junta, it is crawling with low lifeforms like Mary Matalin, James Carville, Karl Rove, 'Scooter' Libby, Bob Woodward, Jack Abramoff, Tom Delay, Ann Coulter, Judith Miller, Stephen Hadley--both famous and in the shadows--because the top of the food chain (Bush, Cheney et al) are scum. Scum likes scum. Disinformation is routine. Expect it. Until we can clean out this nest of vipers--and I do think we will, some day--we cannot trust anything that comes out of this creepy crawly place.

And if we are stuck with a three-way contest between H. Clinton, Thompson and Bloomberg, I was going to say it's everything we deserve for our neglect of our election system, and our failure to stop (or undo) its conversion to electronic voting machines run on 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by rightwing Bushite corporations. But--though it is the expectable result of this highly corrupt, non-transparent vote 'counting' system--it's not what the American people deserve. The American people--who have shown astonishing resistance to relentless, 24/7 fascist propaganda and war mongering, for six years now--deserve better. The voting system conversion was fast-tracked into place below their radar, with the mind-boggling collusion of the Democratic Party leadership. It has given us a political system that is impossible to change. Instead of our best possible candidates rising to the top, and running for president, we get the worst possible candidates--war supporters, corporate shills, fascists. There are other things wrong with our election system, for sure--money and the corporate-controlled media being prime among them--but rightwing SECRET corporate control of the vote counting is the coup de grace. It is the democracy killer. And until we restore transparent vote counting, we can expect nothing but more fascism, more war and more oppression of every kind.

[davekriss]

36. Great post, Peace Patriot! (eom)

[blogslut]

17. meh

We'll see, I suppose. Not too fond of Larry's turn at gossip blogging.

[MaineProgressive]

19. No matter what you may think of the NRA, they are

a very formidable political force. Bloomberg's position on gun control has earned him NRA Public Enemy #2, second only to Hillary Clinton.

Democrats won big in 2006, but a surprising number of these gains were from pro-gun (or anti-gun control) candidates.

(Interesting article - http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1944296,00.html)

Bloomberg has been a lifelong Democrat. His positions overlap with those of the Democrats and, unfortunately, will pull Dem votes. Bloomberg is to the Democrats in 2008 as Perot was to the Republicans in 1992.

"I don't know why people carry guns. Guns kill people..." -- Michael Bloomberg

[orleans]

22. i can't get over #5!

someone should remind nancy what happened to delay...?

[John Q. Citizen]

26. If it's true, that is. n/t

[KittyWampus]

27. Bullshit. Many GOP'ers nationwide are social liberals & sick of NeoCons AND Fundies

They would vote for Bloomberg.

There is only a small fraction of GOP'ers who wouldn't vote for Bloomberg as a protest. That would be the 30% that is Bush's solid base.

[MaineProgressive]

29. Bloomberg has NO APPEAL

[anitar1]

28. this reminds me of a "gossip" article. why should

anyone take this article as factually true ? and yet it seems some posters do.

[K8-EEE]

31. It IS a gossip article....the fun about gossip

is guessing which parts turn out to be true. It's probably about as trustworthy of info as the sources most people get their "serious news" from!

I remember when Rush's drug use was as Enquirer exclusive, LOL....

[John Q. Citizen]

35. The National Enquirer has broken a lot of big strories over the years. So what if

nobody except the possibly insane believe them until they are carried in other publications.

They pissed somebody off though enough for someone to send them anthrax shortly after they did one of their whacky, colorful, unbelievable, exclusives about the bush twins...

[in_cog_ni_to]

37. I don't see how Bloomberg's running helps the repuke. He'll take the semi-normal repuke's votes

(if there is such a thing) and Thompson goes down to a HUGE Democratic win. Bloomberg=Perot.

As for Nancy and Steny not speaking, she'll have to change her mind soon. Too many citizens are calling for Impeachment. She works for us.

[tsuki]

39. Amazing.

"At least five Republicans and one Democrat, John Murtha, are going to be indicted for bribery."

Why are the Republicans not "named?" Or conversely, why is the only Democrat "named?"

If this rumour is coming from the DOJ, it is just another example of how they have been politicized.