Obama gets it wrong comparing crime in Chicago to the war in Iraq..

[ddeclue]

re: Obama bemoans 'epidemic of violence' – this article (July 15th 2007) has a major flaw in that it failed to call Obama on making a very faulty comparison.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/07/15/politics/p132635D02.DTL&type=politics

By NATHANIEL HERNANDEZ
Associated Press Writer

”CHICAGO - Standing before a church congregation that has witnessed
inner-city violence firsthand, Democratic presidential hopeful Barack
Obama said Sunday that more must be done to end a social ill that is
"sickening the soul of this nation."

Obama told churchgoers at the Vernon Park Church of God on Chicago's
South Side that too many young lives are being claimed by violence and
more must be done to combat the problem…

......

Nearly three dozen Chicago students have been killed this year, according to Chicago Public Schools. Obama said that figure is higher than the number of Illinois serviceman who've died in Iraq in 2007....”

OBAMA was comparing apples to oranges folks - domestic crime vs. the war in Iraq - but apparently AP reporter didn't see or failed to comment on the very faulty numerical comparison Obama just made:

While there is certainly an epidemic of violence recently (my town of Orlando has had record murder rates in the last few years) Obama is totally wrong in this argument (comparing youth deaths in Chicago to IL soldiers killed in Iraq) because he isn't comparing like sized populations!

There are far more student aged persons in Chicago than there are Illinois soldiers in Iraq so this is a totally invalid comparison and it is the exact same type that Republicans use to argue that Iraq "isn't so bad" when the reality is that Iraq is much worse than anything anywhere in the U.S.A. - it's a WAR ZONE in Iraq folks!

There are a total of 160,000 U.S. troops give or take in Iraq - only a small portion of these come from the state of Illinois probably no more than a few thousand - according to this Congressman's website there are only 2400 ING soldiers in Iraq:

http://www.house.gov/list/hearing/il10_kirk/natlguardreservists.html

According to this website there have been 129 Illinois based casualties in the war.

You would need to extrapolate the number of IL casualties by the ratio of ING soldiers in Iraq to the average population of student aged residents of Chicago over the past few years to get a reasonable comparison...

According to this website:

http://chicago.about.com/b/a/215535.htm

There are 200,962 students of approximately high school age (15-19) and another 239,252 of approximately college age (20-24). That's about 440,000 persons of "student" age in Chicago or about 183 times as many ING troops as in Iraq.

Therefore to compare apples to apples you'd need to multiply the 129 IL soldier deaths in Iraq by 183 times to get a reasonable estimate (23607 since March 2003) for comparing the crime rate in Chicago vs. deaths in Iraq.

In other words if there had been approximately 23,607 murders in the metro Chicago area since March 2003 then Obama would right in claiming Chicago were worse than Iraq.

But there HASN'T BEEN... Obama's off by over an order of magnitude when we compare apples to apples.

According to this website:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4155/is_20061222/ai_n17073001

there have been about 450 murders a year over the last several years- even if we allow for a spike of 25% in the last year - in the 53 months since the war began in Iraq there would have been only 2100 murders in Chicago.

In other words Chicago only has about 8.89% the murder rate per capita of those ING soldiers killed in Iraq - 2100 vs. 23,607.

and THAT is why this is fallacious reasoning and why Obama is wrong to go around saying it.

It's the same kind of rhetoric Republicans have repeatedly used to falsely claim that Iraq was less dangerous than (pick a city) - Detroit, Los Angeles, Washington, NYC and now we can add Chicago to that list.

Crime in cities is certainly up all across the boards and an issue we need to address as Democrats but until we start having 600 to 1,000 murders a month in major American cities, nothing that is happening here even comes close to what is happening in Iraq and we should refrain from making this invalid comparison!

Respectfully,

Doug De Clue
Orlando, FL

[Kagemusha]

1. Uh, you are wrong that it is "the exact same comparison".

The Republicans compare civilian deaths in Iraq due to the insurgency (I don't think they even acknowledge regular crime in Iraq) to civilian deaths by murder in major American cities.

Now perhaps that's a distinction without a difference to you and irrelevant to your argument, but so be it. You later call it "the same kind of rhetoric"... which may be broad enough to be true.

[ddeclue]

2. I think you are splitting hairs...Obama's off by an order of magnitude

in comparing crime in Chicago to the war in Iraq and this is the same kind of numbers game the Republicans use to make Iraq sound like "a nice place to live"...I've heard it many times before from any number of right wing talking heads and it's just as invalid from Obama...

Doug D.

[proud2BlibKansan]

3. But I think I understand what Obama meant

I think he was saying that the crime rate in Chicago is a larger problem than the deaths of Illinois troops in Iraq. When the republicans say this, they are trying to justify the war. But I don't think that's what Obama was getting at.

I think it was a dumb thing to say, regardless.

[ddeclue]

4. But actually the crime rate in Chicago is NOT a larger problem

than deaths of Illinois troops in Iraq.

You are far, far, far more likely to die in Iraq as a member of the Illinois national guard than you are to die in Chicago as a student at the University of Chicago or simply being a regular early 20 something on the South Side of Chicago not in school. Obama is wrong because he's not comparing like sized populations - his reasons may be different than the Republicans but the results of his faulty reasoning are the same:

Math challenged people will make the faulty conclusion that Iraq is less dangerous than Chicago and believe that Iraq is somehow gotten safe.

I appreciate him taking up the crime issue - it's a real problem here in Orlando too but his math doesn't work. He needs to avoid comparisons to Iraq!

Doug D.

[NYCGirl]

5. But it's not a direct comparison! Only a fool would think that Iraq is safer

than Chicago. But it is a very sad fact that more students in Chicago were killed this year than in a war zone, isn't it?

[ddeclue]

6. No it's NOT a sad FACT....that is my point exactly...

You like Obama seem to be "math challenged"... unless you compare the two different populations properly by scaling the smaller population (Illinois soldiers) up to the size of the larger population the comparison has no validity whatsoever.

The factual reality is that the Chicago problem is only 8.89% of the Iraq problem. Deaths have to be compared on a PER CAPITA basis, not on a gross numbers basis. No other comparison is valid.

You too are making an apples to oranges comparison...and the fact that you don't get it means a LOT of other people also don't get it either and this is why such invalid comparisons between vastly different population sizes are so extremely dangerous.

They lead to people treating problems as far out of proportion to what they really are or ignoring the real problem

Doug D.

[NYCGirl]

8. Even ONE student in a Chicago school dying because of violence is a SAD FACT.

Nice that you can be so incredibly detached about it.

[ddeclue]

10. Yes it's sad but it's not a valid f"fact"

You have to normalize things when you make comparison or the conclusions you draw are simply wrong...

and NO.. I'm not detached about this issue - it's huge here in Orlando too and I let my local electeds know how I feel about it every chance I get - but you still have to keep perspective and not go around saying that domestic crime rates here in the US are worse than the war crimes being perpetrated by BushCo in Iraq.

Doug D.

[madrchsod]

17. i got your back ncygirl

bitching about math-o-matics while kids get shot in their bed or watching tv because some dumb fucking gang banger sprays bullets. ya it`s all math-o-matics...

[NYCGirl]

23. Thank you, madrchsod. It is tragic when a major American city has more deaths

per year of students than the middle of a war zone — something must be done about both situations.

[ddeclue]

28. No that's INACCURATE...

It's invalid to make the comparison without correcting for the populations.

It's simply wrong and you can go on all you want but you are still wrong.

[ddeclue]

26. No it's not all mathematics but you can't refuse to accept

that Obama got the math wrong and made a very poor comparison.

Doug D.

[Terri S]

7. I must say, I agree with NYCgirl

He was not making a direct comparison, just a simple statement of fact. There IS an epidemic of violence in our cities and his statements about the cause and solutions sounded right on to me.

I honestly don't see how anyone 'math-challenged' or not could come away with the idea that he believes Iraq is less dangerous than Chicago from what he said in that speech.

[ddeclue]

9. It's an INVALID statement because it is an invalid comparison.

These are the types of manipulating the "facts" that shouldn't be allowed to go unchallenged.

You NEVER compare gross death counts of various causes of death or between various regions - You compare PER CAPITA deaths - it's called NORMALIZING your data so that it is a fair comparison.

Anyone who goes around saying "it's a sad fact" as the previous poster said is simply wrong and plenty of "math challenged" people walk away from such statements believing EXACTLY that Iraq is safer than Chicago (or pick a city) and thus that Democrats are wrong to complain about the war - We need to refrain from making such invalid comparisons because there are simply too many people who can't do the math!

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[dionysus]

19. he was using the numbers to illustrate a point, not to trivialize the war

please relax

[ddeclue]

27. But that is exactly the problem it DOES trivialize the war whether he meant to do so or not.

He should never have compared the two in this manner. He should have compared this year's crime to last years crime.

Doug D.

[stillcool]

11. I personally think any comparative...

inference between Iraq and any where else...except maybe another war zone...is ludicrous, and I have to wonder about the speakers intent when saying it. It seems to minimize the destruction and massacre of an entire country. I would think crime across the board should be going up. Cause and effect being what it is, it should come as no surprise.

Nearly three dozen Chicago students have been killed this year, according to Chicago Public Schools. Obama said that figure is higher than the number of Illinois serviceman who've died in Iraq in 2007

[ddeclue]

12. Thank you...you get my point!

My problem is that I understand too much about math apparently...

[ddeclue]

13. Thank you...you get my point!

My problem is that I understand too much about math apparently...

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

14. You're Putting Words In Obama's Mouth. You Are Creating This Debate Yourself Out Of Thin Air.

Obama never said nor hinted that chicago was as dangerous as iraq, which is what it appears you are trying to put forth as if he had.

He was just making a direct factual statement that more school age kids have died then servicemen in iraq, to make a good point that the violence must be diminished. He wasn't using the numbers to imply that chicago was therefore a war zone like iraq. Instead, he was just saying that the number is too high and was just using the iraq number for effect. It was a good speech for the right reasons.

What cracked me up is your post to the first response that has the gall to claim the poster is splitting hairs. Are you for real? Your OP gets the 'splitting hairs' award of the month!

[ddeclue]

24. Nope... I'm using Obamas words...

You are DENYING that he made domestic crime out to be bigger than Iraq...

This is in the category of Gerald Ford telling people that Poland wasn't behind the Iron Curtain in '76...

Obama should have said crime or murders are up X% and never compared it to Iraq. If you make the comparison it is fair game to discuss whether that comparison is a valid one or not.. I'm sorry you don't like that I've pointed out just how invalid it actually is.

Doug D.

[madrchsod]

15. jesus christ bitching about how something was said

while nothing has been done for years in the south side of chicago to structurally change the lives of the people he was talking about....it`s a fucking shame

[dionysus]

20. amen

[ddeclue]

25. Sorry if you don't like it but his ability to communicate his point clearly

is a valid concern to have about ANY candidate. He screwed up and you simply don't like that I pointed out that this is NOT a valid comparison for him to be making.

[Colobo]

16. You are just desperately trying to make Obama look bad and not being succesful

[ddeclue]

29. No OBAMA made OBAMA look bad...

I'm just brought it to your attention...deal with it..

[frazzled]

18. I guess you don't care about these children who have died ...

I read the newspapers and watch the news in Chicago. It's heartbreaking. A little girl was having her birthday party in her South Side home. Shots from a group of young men fighting outside strayed into the window near where she was standing and she was killed. At her birthday party. If I recall, she was eight years old.

It's typical that you don't see this as a problem: after all, almost all of these children are black. Their lives don't count for much. You see no need to address the problem. Iraq is seen as the only problem. But in realitythere are many problems that plague our country, and all of them need to be addressed. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Obama was not comparing Chicago to Iraq. He was making a sober point about the problems in our cities that no one else is looking at. It's a serious problem. It may involve stricter gun control. It involves addressing poverty and the roots of violence. And the facts are true: more children died this year in Chicago from violent acts than did soldiers in Iraq. That doesn't mean that the deaths in Iraq are not important. It's a fact that strikingly reveals the severity of the problem of violence and its effects on children. It doesn't mean that we don't address Iraq. But it sure as hell doesn't mean we don't address this issue.

This might be an important issue to you if you were a parent of a child in a violence-prone neighborhood. Or if you were an eight-year old black girl hoping to get to the cake at least on your birthday. But I guess since you are neither of these, it's not of any interest to you. Someone needs to be interested. I guess it has to be Obama.

[ddeclue]

30. You guessed wrong....and Obama by definition was comparing Chicago to Iraq

He used both in the same sentence in comparison.

We have plenty of crime here too and YES of COURSE I care about it - I've personally known three different people who were murdered in three DIFFERENT murders in the 1980's and 1990's when I lived in Atlanta so don't presume to lecture me.

Of COURSE crime is a problem but making bad comparisons between domestic crime and Iraq doesn't solve domestic crime - it just trivializes Iraq.

Do YOU not care about Iraq?

Doug D.

[frazzled]

32. No, I am quite right--and just giving you a dose of your own medicine

Your little (unconvincing and unprofessional) math game had nothing to do with the import of Senator Obama's statement, in his own community. He lives on the South Side, you see, and has two little girls. The people there understood what he meant. You chose to engage in jibber-jabber to bash a candidate.

And by the way, "casualties" does not refer to deaths. Casualties refers to the totality of wounded.

[G_j]

21. may be a connection though..

since our government sponsors and condones murder and violence.

[madrchsod]

22. i take it that this is you

http://www.democrats.org/page/community/blog/douglasdeclue
The Democratic Party | Community Blogs | Douglas De Clue's Blog

my choice in the primary so far is edwards or obama

[ddeclue]

31. Yes...

and I DO like Obama generally... I've seen him speak before and he's very good... I see him as my second choice below Edwards and above Hillary.

He screwed this speech up none the less. It's a bad comparison to make and one I've heard as RW talking points in the past and that's what irks me... I know he didn't intend to take up RW talking points but the end result is the same to people who hear this comparison and it hurts the Democrats because then people want to know why we care so much about Iraq if Chicago is worse...

Doug D.

[Boomdog]

33. This whole post is a joke, right?

Give me a f*ing break. Spare me your "statistical" analysis or whatever the hell you call it. He was making a point, and I don't care how many times you say he was "wrong" about it - the numbers he used are true. 25 Illinois dead in Iraq since September. 36 Chicago children dead from gunfire on Chicago streets since September.

I don't care how many more children there are in Chicago than Illinois soldiers in Iraq. Chicago children LIVE here. Illinois soldiers shouldn't even be there.

I DARE you to go to the parents of either a dead Illinois soldier or a dead Chicago child and tell them that their child isn't as statistically significant as the other.

Until then, do something productive with your time. And spare us your sanctimonious crap.