Larisa Alexandrovna: My Take OnThe NIE

[Hissyspit]

http://www.atlargely.com/2007/07/my-take-on-the-.html

My Take on the NIE...

Having now read the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), the key points really can be summarized as follows: Because President Bush-Cheney decided to hit Iraq, instead of focusing their so called war on terror against Al Qaeda, the organization has regained pre-9/11 strength, spawned several sub-groups - one of which is a small contingent in Iraq now called AQI (which was not there prior to the Iraq war), and have been able to use the Iraq war as a recruiting tool. Moreover, they have been able to use Iraq as a training ground in real time.

My problem with the NIE, however, is on its assertions that AQI is fighting Sunnis. While AQ/AQI is indeed Jihadist, their origins are not Sh'ia nor would their focus be exclusively Sunnis.

I am also troubled by a broad range of suggestions that domestic attacks are likely being planned. Without context, I am skeptical of this assertion. Indeed, their is no reason to believe that the NIE is not incorporating some political estimations, given that it is a compilation of all 16 agency reports, distilled into a single report by a political office of the Director for National Intelligence.

- snip -

So in general, while I find the NIE a good analysis that jives with what I have heard for a few months now, I do think that some political items were likely added. I also think some key items were likely removed. I hope that Congress will take the time to separate the real threats (AQ rising and operating freely in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia), from the daydreams of Neo-Cons. I also hope Congress finally sees enough in this report to understand that Iraq is making us less safe, not more. We need to address the Pakistani ISI problem and their support of extremists. Iraq is draining our resources and keeping us from any actual progress on AQ.

[Hissyspit]

1. .

[bonito]

2. If AQ had oil they'd be history already

Me thinks.

[Igel]

3. Odd that he has a problem with Sunni-on-Sunni religious violence.

"While AQ/AQI is indeed Jihadist, their origins are not Sh'ia nor would their focus be exclusively Sunnis." But "not exclusively Sunni" does not mean "never directed at Sunnis". Oddly, while true, he asserts a falsehood in the previous sentence: He can't believe AQI would fight Sunnis. Obviously a claim made with no evidence.

Look at Pakistan. The Lal Masjid affair was entirely Deobandi Sunni versus a more moderate Sunni. The nonsense in Waziristan and the NWFP is entirely intra-Sunni.

Same for the violence in Sa'udi Arabia, hard-core Wahhabis versus more moderate Wahhabis.

When the group based in Syria blew up the wedding in Jordan, the bombers and bombees were Sunni.

The refugee camp violence in Nahar al-Barid is, of course, Sunni on Sunni violence.

The Salafist Group for Da'wa and Jihad in Algeria is now AQ-affiliated. Few Shi'ites in Algeria; they kill Sunnis.

The militant groups in Morocco ... target Sunnis.

A Salafi (or Deobandi) would have to say that by supporting infidel governments or the enemy in any way, you cease to be a Muslim; all four fiqhs admit the death penalty for apostates, with very degrees of emphasis, even if moderate followers of any given fiqh has trouble with the idea.

So note that in Anbar--Ramadi and the like--a number of attacks have been made against Sunnis by the ISI, probably AQI (to be specific). Why? Because the tribes there have dared to fight the ISI. They are, by definition, apostate, and must be fought until they repent or are dead. The same kind of language Zawahri used for those fighting the loons in the Red Mosque.

[bleever]

4. K&R for further reading.

And also for excellent journalism, which is so rare and precious.

[wiggs]

5. Unfortunately, congressmen see in reports like this whatever they

want to see. Their positions are already set, I believe, and an NIE doesn't change that.

[Kurovski]

6. K&R. (nt)

[KAT119]

7. K&R

[Catherine Vincent]

8. And another kick for Larisa!

:kick: