Forecasters cut 2007 Hurricane forecast --- and my personal rant

[cobalt1999]

As a coastal living Floridian, great news! Now my rant. HOW THE HELL DO YOU GET THIS JOB! Every year forecaster make their predictions of the number of hurricanes, every hurricane season they "adjust" their predictions multiple times until it matches reality! Last year they predicted armageddon and there was nothing. The year we had a hurricane every damn week, they predicted it to be normal. Why does anyone at this point listen or REPORT their predictions? It's like they get to move their chips around on the roulette table until the ball drops, then they say "see, we got it right". I want that job!


www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN2442542020070725?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The 2007 hurricane season may be less severe than forecast due to cooler-than-expected water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, private forecaster WSI Corp said on Tuesday.

The season will bring 14 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes and three will become major hurricanes, WSI said in its revised outlook.
<snip>

[trof]

1. Miz t.'s Hurricane Predicter:

The higher the sea turtles lay their eggs on the beach, the worse the season will be.
This year they're laying almost at high tide line.
That's pretty low.
Hope she's right.
We're in coastal Alabama, near P'cola.

[NMDemDist2]

2. I'm willing to bet Mrs. t is on to something there

:hi:

[cobalt1999]

4. I trust the sea turtles more than these yahoos.

It's amazing the publicity they get though, especially that supposed hurricane expert Dr. Gray from Colorado (of all places).

BTW, we are just down the coast to your east in Fort Walton Beach, FL.

[cobalt1999]

7. BTW, I hope you didn't take too much of a beating from Ivan a few year ago.

n/t.

[trof]

8. Actually, we got the shit kicked out of us.

The house made it OK.
Minor damage.
But we had 19 oaks uprooted.
And our dock was destroyed.
And part of our seawall bulkhead collapsed.

Know how much insurance will pay for removal of trees and rebuilding of dock and seawall?
ZERO
Not. Covered.

FEMA?
Fugeddaboudit.
:-(

[pitohui]

3. let me get this straight because i'm totally not getting you

you're mad because the predictions for 2006, which would have utterly devastated this country financially coming so soon after the catastrophes of 2004 and 2005, didn't come to pass?

and now you're mad because maybe MAYBE NO ONE KNOWS YET 2007 may not be as terrible as they originally feared?

predictions are adjusted as more and new information comes in, i don't see what is so hard to understand about that...

if you don't want the reports, simple, don't listen or click

[cobalt1999]

5. My point is if you don't know enough to make a prediction..

fine, say so. Why make one except for the publicity? Why is it published in all the newspapers? If you knew you didn't have a shoot in hell of being right you shouldn't issue ANY prediction. I want a job that lets me pick any random number out of the air and then consistently adjust it to match reality. What value add are they providing?

[pitohui]

9. they do have some shot in hell

they're actually not that bad if you ask me, compared to years ago

[cobalt1999]

11. I think they are very good at predicting the path of an existing hurricane

They are really BAD at predicting how intense an entire season will be. Too many variables, variables keep changing, no good models for how long the variables will even apply. Therefore, not much reason to ever issue a prediction especially to the media. As for getting better, let's look back to just last year...

The 2006 forecast called for:
17 named tropical storms - Actual named storms 9 (since the standard deviation is about 4 per season; that's damn bad)
9 hurricanes - Actual hurricanes 5 (they predicted almost double what actually happened; piss poor)
5 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph - Actual major hurricanes 2 (more than 100% off)

If that's not bad, I wish you were doing my job performance evaluations.

Again, I think the guys in the NHC are doing a fantastic job of predicting individual storm paths, I just don't understand how anyone buys the long term predictions from groups like Dr Gray in Colorado.

However, I will make one prediction myself: I predict their prediction for storm activity this season will be "adjusted" at least one more time.

[UTUSN]

6. "Meteorologist" = the only job where you can screw up every day & still have a job n/t

[pitohui]

10. what about pretzeldent? EOM

.

[Swamp Rat]

14. Best job on Earth

[SmokingJacket]

12. Not to defend anyone, but....

I wonder if the bizarro weather we've been having has thrown a real wrench into the usual prediction models. Yeah, in a NORMAL year such and such indicator might mean one thing, but this year -- when places like Oklahoma and England have had summer flooding, and most othe recent years for that matter -- the indicators don't mean as much.

[karlrschneider]

13. Our increasing ability to predict isn't keeping up with the increasing unpredictability.

Of the weather.

I know that sounds goofy but it's true.

[cobalt1999]

15. I actually agree with you and Smoking Jacket

There are no good models that can handle a normal year. With climate change, there are fewer normal years which makes their predictions even further off.

I'm not bashing the guys trying to work it out, I'm bashing the going to the media as "experts". If you know you're basically guessing, then say so up front and if they don't maybe an end of year report card should be issued.

[Catchawave]

16. Funny that the Katrina/Rita/Wilma year wasn't predicted ....

either. What have we learned from that?

[slackmaster]

17. We've learned that weather is pretty damned hard to predict

:dunce:

[cobalt1999]

18. Yes it is.

and I wish someone paid me to do it. I have a good dartboard. :)

[slackmaster]

19. My desert tortoise is very adept at predicting rain

He makes it clear that he wants to go inside the house.

[cobalt1999]

20. I had to look up their prediction vs. reality for that year...

Named Storms; Predicted 11; Actual 23
Hurricanes; Predicted 6; Actual 13
Intense Hurricanes; Predicted 3; Actual 7

Every prediction was over 100% off the actual. Amazingly inaccurate.