Possible endings: chaos? Sunnis? Iranian influence?

[NNN0LHI]

http://daily-journal.com/archives/dj/display.php?id=400013

Assume the Democrats, and selected Republicans, are successful in setting a hard and fast deadline for the withdrawal from Iraq.

Even if Bush were to stave off withdrawal until the end of his term, surely the next president would begin removal shortly thereafter.

Some possible endings if the United States withdraws from Iraq:

* Somehow the central government of Nouri al-Maliki satisfies all factions and begins to rule a peaceful, stable Iraq. Remote.

* Al-Qaeda wins. Despite administration fears, many of the al-Qaeda operatives appear to be foreign nationals, despised by native Iraqis. Remote.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I think it will end

with a breakup of the country into ethnic states. Sunnistan will become a protectorate of Saudi Arabia; Shiastan will become a protectorate of Iran. And Turkey will be VERY nervous because of the independent Kurdistan. I also think that al Qaeda will be chased out of Iraq by the natives.

[MADem]

2. Yep...I'm thinking that's about it, myself. And who knows how Iran will

look at Kurdistan over the long haul? They've got one too, and it's pretty big....!

I'd hate to see the Kurds get their "Stan" and then have Iran roll over them in order to prevent them from merging into a greater nation. Which isn't an impossible scenario--only I think they might be surprised at how hard the Kurds might fight back...!

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. One must realize that the modern borders of these nations

were set by the Europeans after WWI (not sure about Iran, but the rest were). Here's a question: have the Kurds ever had their own independent nation? Were they descendants of the Hittites, an ancient civilization in eastern Turkey, or did they settle into the region later? I think I'll do a little research into this.

On edit: Yes, the Kurds go back to the Hittities-and back beyond them. From the brief amount of time I spent reading, it appears that they are a mixture of Indo-Europeans and indigenous peoples, and that they have fought for autonomy ever since the last time they were independent in the 1200s.

[MADem]

4. Yep, fat white guys with big black pens, more or less

If you ask the Kurds, who speak Kurdish as their first language, they've always had a land. It's only in recent generations that they've had "trouble" with regard to free movement within their nation.

The Kurdish Library in NYC is a great place to start, if you're anywhere near there. They've a huge collection, but you've gotta get there--they aren't 'much' online, at least last time I've checked.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

7. Fascinating, what I read online

Alas, I'm nowhere near NYC, but there was a lot of basic information online. I can tell that the Kurds have a rich history. I didn't know that at one time their ruler converted to Judaism and helped out the besieged Jews in Galilee, nor that some later converted to Christianity after the Muslims had taken over. Their land appears to have shifted as they were moved hither and thither-they wish their autonomy but appear to have been under the thumb of their more powerful neighbors for centuries.

[MADem]

8. And in supreme Irony, Hitler called them the original Aryans...!!!

Very tall people, some of them, many with light gray and blue eyes. More than a few blondes scattered in their population, too. Very diverse people in appearance...the light eyes are quite remarkable...

[Junkdrawer]

9. ...and there'll be an expanding war to determine who gets the oil fields...

It's started already...and we're already arming the Saudis in preparation for their entry.

[dorkulon]

5. A break into three states, then the Turks occupy the Kurdish one...

while we stand by and do nothing but watch the Kurds get slaughtered yet again. Meanwhile, Shiites and Sunnis continue to fight over borders and oil-rich territory, funded by Iran and the Saudis, respectively. Freedom!

Edit: And yes, al Qaeda will be run out of the region as soon as we leave.

[MADem]

6. And Iran, and their Kurds, stand by and let that happen???

I dunno about that scenario...