Why is Guiliani and McCain skipping the Ames straw poll this weekend?

[AlCzervik]

really, and will them blowing it off have a negative impact on both or does it not matter?

here is a link in case anyone wanted some details.
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070807/NEWS09/708070394/-1/NEWS04

[TwilightGardener]

1. They're giving Mittens a big opening--he's doing well in Iowa,

and he will probably take New Hampshire. All he needs to do is shore up SC and he's the nominee.

edit to add--Nevada has a ton of Mormons--he'll do respectably well there too.

[hfojvt]

2. because they are not strong there

and a bad showing would hurt their campaign more than skipping it will.

[mr_hat]

3. My impression (here in Iowa) is that the early, active

repub participants are on the wacko religious right. Brownback and Tancredo are doing quite well.

The "big tenters" will come out later.

[AlCzervik]

5. so is that the norm for both parties then?

[mr_hat]

6. Not sure what would be analogous on the dem side.

[TahitiNut]

4. McCain can't afford to bankroll enough 'straws' -- Giuliani can't find "Aims" on a map.

:shrug:

[saltpoint]

7. Because the numbers aren't there and Romney's team has outflanked them.

There is no compelling winning momentum or percentage for McCain and Rudy in Iowa. Romney has outspent them and has a far better ground organization, and is going to win big. By skipping Iowa, Rudy and McCain can say that Romney remains "untested," and that Romney's only competition were 2nd-tier candidates.

There's no risk to Giuliani and McCain for skipping this straw poll, really. The gamble would have been to go whole-hog into it and STILL get whomped by Romney.

They're diluting his win by staying away.

[librechik]

8. they don't want to look like the losers they are just yet.

[saltpoint]

9. Mitt's going to win, but the GOP field will be shaken up some in Ames

this weekend.

I look for Tommy Thompson to get slaughtered, drop out, hurl slang nouns at the liberal media, and then make a pilgrimage to the Holy Land.

We're done with Tommy's presidential campaign after the Iowa Straw Poll. I only hope he doesn't return to Wisconsin and decide to run again for governor.

Brownback may finish second behind Romney. If he does, the pressure will be on Huckabee to bow out. if Huckabee places second, maybe pressure builds on Sam to drop out. I'm thinking that both these guys can't be the fundies' darling.

Duncan Hunter, if he's still in the race now, might as well not be in the race now, and might as well not be in after the Ames straw poll. In the next life, Duncan Hunter will come back as a bus seat.

[bullwinkle428]

10. Ron Paul has been making a big push with TV and radio commercials

over the past several days, and apparently has big plans involving busing supporters from all over the state to Ames for the straw poll.