Contributions to presidential candidates by military personnel (current and retired)

[Maddy McCall]

This comes from a blog that is citing another blog that got its numbers from FEC contributor employment data, so I'm in no way stating that this is accurate. And, since I am an Al Gore supporter until all hope is diminished for him to enter the race, please don't accuse me of somehow skewing this. I'm just posting this because I thought it interesting that the number of contributors is almost equally split, according to these calculations, between Democratic and Republican candidates.

Democrats' total military contributors = 41245 = 46%
Republicans' total military contributors = 48745 = 54%

Below is the number of military contributors to each candidate:

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Ron Paul (24,965)
Barack Obama (22,866)
John McCain (17,425)
Hillary Clinton (10,550)
Bill Richardson (5,325)
Mitt Romney (3,851)
John Edwards (2,504)
Rudy Giuliani (2,320)

There are curiosities if you consult the full chart (see that first link). Clinton does badly among those presently serving (she didn’t get a dime from anyone serving in the Army, although the Navy seems to like her ok.) She ekes out a 4th overall because she is 1st in contributions from veterans. I don’t think anyone would have predicted that.

Also, apparently there is some concern the Obama figure is inflated (with his total counting income from sales of mugs, t-shirts and such, whereas other campaigns don’t count that. Would I know whether that is true or not? I would not.)

These numbers are low, in absolute terms. I take it to be obvious they might not mean much. (Someone else want to quantify the insufficiency of the data set?) Still, it is suggestive. On the assumption that 2008 is shaping up to Giuliani-Romney/Clinton-Obama primary match-ups, the Dems look ok, the Reps quite pitiful. (Throw in Fred Thompson and John Edwards and the picture doesn’t change.) Romney and Giuliani together get just over half of Clinton’s total, who gets half of Obama’s. So: only 6% of military contributions are going to ‘serious’ Republican candidates, whereas 35% are going to ‘serious’ Dem candidates. (OK, I should throw Edwards in at this point, boosting the Dems to 38%, because Edwards still has, at this point, a real shot, unlike McCain or Paul.)

It makes sense that members of the military would be focused on the war, as a campaign issue. I guess what we are seeing, among Republicans, is intense polarization – pro- and anti-war, with McCain and Paul as beneficiaries of those who will only reach into their wallets for those who are strongest in these directions (Ron Paul is obviously going to sweep the anti-war Republican table, cash-wise). But it doesn’t look as though the Republican party will be the party of McCain or Paul. Where does this leave Giuliani and Romney, elbowing each other, looking to look tougher and stronger?

UPDATE: one commenter at Phreadom points out that Ron Paul seems to be unusually good at collecting employment data from contributors, thereby artificially boosting his standing in this match-up. Another points out that the data may be a bit of a mess. I also trust it is clear that I mean ‘serious candidate’ only in the horse-race sense of ‘might actually win’. There are, I grant, other forms of seriousness.

snip/

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http://crookedtimber.org/2007/08/06/ron-paul-most-contributed-to-by-military-personnel-candidate/#more-6105


Like I said, this could be utter bunk--I don't do math well. So if you've got a gripe with it, please don't take it out on me--take it out on the guys who gathered these numbers.

[mmonk]

1. Ron Paul would cut military spending. Are they aware of that?

[sarge43]

2. I'm curious how anyone determine the vet and retiree status.

Active duty is obvious - employer. However, I've made many political contributions and have never indicated my retiree status nor was it ever asked for.

As for the military support of Paul, that may be due to his opposition to the war.

[peacebaby3]

3. We are Army and donated to Obama. I really wouldn't be surprised by those

statistics. If asked to evaluate my husband's unit as a microcosm, I would have said 50-50 which says a lot because you are talking about a group of people that have literally been indoctrinated into believing that the republic party supports them.