Myths About Jittery Markets

[babylonsister]

Myths About Jittery Markets

By Adam Lashinsky
Sunday, August 12, 2007; Page B03

Confused by the latest news from the financial markets? It's no wonder -- the markets seem plenty confused themselves. The major stock indexes swung wildly last week. Air continued to seep from the housing bubble. Financial giants such as Bear Stearns and Countrywide Mortgage warned of bleaker times than they've seen in years . What does it all mean? It's enough to make investors want to put their hard-earned cash under the mattress.

Before you do that, it might be helpful to burst a few bubbles of our own and separate the many myths about the markets from some truths about what really goes on in them.

1. The economy is crumbling before our eyes.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, more than two-thirds of Americans believe that the economy is already in recession -- or will be soon. Sure, housing prices are weakening, mortgage lenders are cratering and credit is tightening. But those are just a few pieces of tile in the overall economic mosaic.

For years, the United States was the primary engine of growth for the entire world. Voracious consumption and low savings rates at home juiced robust export markets in Asia and Europe. Today, the global economy is humming, more than making up for so-so performance in the United States. Brazil, Russia, India and China are particularly strong. The Chinese economy alone is the most important crutch propping up worldwide commodity prices, including oil. China is also a major buyer of U.S. securities of all flavors -- from U.S. Treasury bills to shares of the private-equity firm Blackstone Group.

And it's not as though the U.S. economic engine is sputtering. Job creation is good, corporate profits are solid, and, at least in Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke's opinion, inflation remains a concern -- a sign that the economy is growing, not contracting. This is why, despite the daily drumbeat of worrisome news such as the travails of the brokerage house Bear Stearns, which has been burned by bad investments in ultra-complex mortgage products, the U.S. stock markets have been relatively resilient. Yes, they have been volatile, signaling uncertainty (see below), but most remain up for the year.

2. The Fed chairman is God.

Blame this misperception on the long tenure of Alan Greenspan, lovingly called "the Maestro" for his harmonious orchestration of the U.S. economy. A semi-retired, tennis-playing, six-figure-speechifying octogenarian he may be, but Greenspan is most certainly mortal -- as is his successor, Bernanke. Greenspan was undeniably there when the U.S. economy needed him. After Sept. 11, 2001, and the bursting of the tech bubble, Greenspan engineered an ultra-low federal funds rate -- what the Federal Reserve Bank charges commercial banks to borrow money overnight -- to stimulate the economy. It worked: Rates remained at historic lows from 2001 to 2004, and the economy recovered nicely.

But Greenspan also created the permissive climate that led to no-documentation, no-money-down, no-common-sense home mortgages. He failed to slam on the brakes when giddy lenders and home builders were catering to house-flipping speculators and aspiring homeowners borrowing beyond their means. In fact, in 2004, he suggested that people would be better off with adjustable-rate mortgages -- just as interest rates were poised to rise.

Greenspan needed to send a signal of moderation. That's why Bernanke is reluctant to lower rates. Tougher credit is a good thing now. It's helping the housing market get back into equilibrium.

more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/09/AR2007080901542.html

[Warpy]

1. The markets aren't that jittery

The Dow is still above 13,000.

[babylonsister]

2. That's why they're referencing myths? Some people got a bit

concerned last week so they're trying to debunk the fear, I'm thinking.

[Fovea]

3. the fundamentals are not that sound

and you can have inflation without growth. Remember stagflation?

And I don't trust a single number this government puts out on the economy.

[yella_dawg]

4. "Job creation is good, corporate profits are solid"

May the gods help us.

Minimum wage jobs and corporate profits that disappear from the general economy to buy million dollar wrist watches.

[skids]

6. And job creation less than immigration. n/t

[skids]

5. If the economy is so good...

...then why did the corporate masters have to order their paid slaves at the WaPo to go out and allay the fears of the marks... erm... I mean ordinary investors? Wouldn't those column inches be put to better use teaching us to hate Hugo Chavez?

[coco77]

8. If the economy is so good then..

Why is neil cavuto and all of his pals trying to convince us all not to listen to anyone who says otherwise,or why are some of them telling us to not watch television. Why is he looking like he is scared as hell.

[lastknowngood]

7. Let's really dispell some Myths About Jittery Markets the real inflation

rate is between 7 and 12% that means you are loosing about 10% on the dollar each year and you can believe that the doubling of gas prices since 2000 has had no impact on the economy. The reconstructed M3 money supply is running about 11% that means inflation. The unemployment rate is now derived by assuming 225,000 new jobs were created each month just to keep up with population growth, that does not include and new undocumented workers who slip over the borders. There is ALWAYS an increase in productivity which means more work done by fewer people. To keep up with inflation ,using the fed's number of about 3.5% the stock market should be at least 14,450. We are "monitizeing" our debt, that is we are simply printing more money without anything backing it up but "The full faith of the federal government" how much faith do you have in the the idiots that are spending almost 1 trillion dollars a year more than they are taking in in taxes? So let's play a game.

1.Do you really believe that inflation has been running between 2.5 and 3.5% for the last 7 years?

2.Do you really believe that 225,000 jobs are created without the government knowing about it?

3.Do you really believe that the doubling of gas prices since 2000 has had no impact on inflation?

4.Do you really believe that every month Americans are quantitatively more productive than last month?

5.Do you really believe in the tooth fairy?

[fed-up]

9. money is no longer growing on trees and many are unable to pay the piper....nt