Could Mario Cuomo Have Won in 1988?

[liberalpragmatist]

Had Mario Cuomo run for president in 1988 and won the Democratic nomination, could he have beaten George H. W. Bush?

At the time, Reagan's popularity was high and there was fairly strong sentiment in favor of the death penalty, both issues that severely crippled Dukakis. Would Cuomo have dealt with those challenges better than Dukakis?

[tblue]

1. I wish. He is one of the great orators of our time. And a street fighter, too.

Remember when he called Quayle 'Danny the Cabin Boy'? LOL!

[H2O Man]

2. It would have

been interesting. Though certainly not perfect, Cuomo was (and is) a highly intelligent person, and he was an outstanding speaker. He was able to debate well, because he could think on his feet. I had the opportunity to meet him when the Iroquois were working with the state on some important issues. I liked him, and tended to trust him. That was rare for me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I'm Concerened That Any Northeasterner Can Be Elected President

It will be forty eight years since it last happened and John Kennedy was sui generis...

That being said I expect a repeat of 00 and 04 with a subtle twist... I think the Democrats can capture a few western states like New Mexico, Colorado, and Arizona and that will make the difference...

[H2O Man]

5. Valid concerns.

Cuomo surely would have been pegged as a "northeastern liberal." But in 1988, he was still faitly close to being at the top of his game.

There were a couple of things that hurt Michael D., and one was that he didn'y feel at ease with Jesse. He did not handle the 4th of July meeting well. He also made a few errors in the campaign (the tank bit and one debate) that I do not see Cuomo at risk for making.

One of the big pluses would have been having him debate Bush. Cuomo would have scored well in that format. I think that his skills were superior to any of our candidates now in the primaries, and that the ability to connect on a level other than just as a "politician" would have given him a greater advantage than anyone from the northeast since RFK in '68.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Don't Know If It's Apocryphal Or Not

But I read the only person who polled as well as George Wallace among working class whites was Bobby Kennedy... He was really a different kind of liberal, a tough minded one, and maybe he could have led them in a different direction... But we all see things through the prism of our own experience or our own hopes and dreams and maybe the politics of that day and our day is what it is and many working class whites will gravitate toward the most conservative candidate... As a historian you know that the pitting of working class whites against African Americans destroyed the populist movement in the late eighteenth century....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Probably Not...

But who knows...

That was an amazing race...Dukakis had a seventeen point post convention advantage that turned into a eight point election day defecit...That's a swing of twenty five points...But the Clinton 92 victory was built out of the ashes of that defeat...The ten states the Duke carried and the 140 Electoral Votes was a nice foundation for Clinton to build on... That and the closeness of California...

The Duke wasn't a very good candidate but a good fella...

[H2O Man]

6. Slime politics

reached new lows in '88. Michael D had made a couple errors in the campaign, but the fact that he came across as a nice guy was used against him. I think we've seen again, in both 2000 and 2004, that there is a real need to be able to fight back.

[MADem]

8. They went after Kitty too--she was having trouble. It made it hard for him

to concentrate.

[H2O Man]

9. Yes, they did.

Very important point. They will attack the spouse of a person they view as their enemy. We saw it in '88, and again in 2003.

[MADem]

7. What was the skeleton in Mario's closet?

There was some reason he didn't go for it, and it wasn't the usual excuses. Of course, nowadays, whatever it was, it wouldn't be a problem in the present environment.

Quite frankly, if you look at the Decider we have today, apparently, anything goes--he's lowered the bar to the point where you can get busted for coke, get DUIs, dance nekkid on bars, go AWOL...whatever!!

[H2O Man]

10. That used to be

something that a lot of people wondered. My own belief is that he considered his options, and recognized the hardships it would create for his family, and decided to stay as the governor of New York. I had thought of posting that, even before you mentioned Kitty D being attacked on another post.

[MADem]

11. I have friends who are 'embedded in the system' and they alluded to it

without passing on any details. So I'm in the dark. All I know is that it had potential to be a showstopper, whatever it was.

I mean, really, how bad could it be?

Hell, back then, a dalliance, or even a soulmate on the side was a disqualifier...IF one got caught. And plenty never did.

Nowadays, whatever his indiscretion, it may well be seen as quaint....given the passage of time and the indiscretions of others...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. People Suggested He Might Have Mafia Ties Which Strike Me As Dumb...

I guess with six degrees of separation we all do...

Truth be told I don't think he could have won... But I think America is a very different country now and a northeasterner has a chance because the power of the South has been diluted... Still a lot Electoral Votes down here but a Dem has a shot in the West (AZ, CO, and NM)...

[MADem]

22. He was an ORATOR. Once he got going, he could suck you in.

I think he might have had a shot.

But we'll never know.

I recall those mafiosi rumors...I never thought they could be made to stick. Too many pissed-off Italians (many of whom voted Republican) would have been outraged, I think. When you think of the numbers of Italians in the arts, with access to airwaves, and how they could go on every show from Phil Donohue to Johnny Carson and get super-pissed off, well, it coulda backfired.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. The Five Best Orators Of My Lifetime In No Order

I am just saying the ability to deliver a speech... I'm not commenting on the content:

John Kennedy

Ted Kennedy

Jesse Jackson

Mario Cuomo

Ronald Reagan

[Gman]

13. Anybody could have won as long as

they didn't get in a stupid tank, put on a stupid looking helmet and look like an idiot riding around. And if they would have had some kind of a passionate answer about your wife getting murdered and the death penalty.

[H2O Man]

14. The Willie Horton bit

was, sadly, very effective.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Sad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVg8Ztn6sgg

Plus there was a bit of ethnic bigotry in the campaign...

[rug]

16. Maybe, but he definitely wouldn't have suggested farmers grow endives.

Or driven around in a tank with a stupid helmet.

[Wetzelbill]

17. not sure about '88 but I think he would have in '92

if he was able to win the nomination, that is.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Don't See It...

Clinton carried five southern states and Cali in 92...

Plus you had Perot...

And Clinton was the most adroit politician in our lifetime...

[H2O Man]

21. I'm not sure.

Timing is so important. By 1992, New York was experiencing some problems that were being blamed on Cuomo. I think he would have had his best chance in '88. Bush, of course, could be viewed as weaker in '92 as well, so you could be right.

[Wetzelbill]

25. I was solely thinking because Bush was weaker and Perot

would have divided the Right enough to let Cuomo squeak by.

[H2O Man]

26. Perot was

a big factor in Clinton's victory. He may have helped Cuomo, too, had he run.

[liberalpragmatist]

28. Although Clinton continued to lead when Perot dropped out

And post-election polls showed Perot voters would have split evenly, meaning Clinton would have won a somewhat narrow but comfortable victory - about 52-47. I think it may actually have been higher - more like 53-46 or 54-45, given Bush Sr.'s unpopularity at that point(his approval ratings were in the 30s). Although Clinton's electoral vote might have been lower. He probably would have lost Montana, Colorado, Georgia, New Hampshire, and maybe Tennessee - all states he won by very narrow margins.

[liberalpragmatist]

27. Right, that's why I thought '88

I do think that, given Bush's unpopularity, Cuomo would probably have won in 1992. But he would have had an easier time, I think in 1988. Yes, Bush wasn't as unpopular, but Cuomo would have faced major controversy over New York's fiscal crisis, the crime wave then engulfing NYC (and most major cities), and the state of the recession. Most of those issues weren't his fault, but he would have been tarred by them.

In contrast, in 1988, New York was doing pretty well, his in-state popularity was high, and he could campaign from a position of strength. Yes, Bush didn't have lousy approval ratings, but he wasn't that popular and he may have made a poor contrast with the dynamic Cuomo.

[liberalpragmatist]

29. Clinton might have beat him in '92

... for the Democratic nomination. In '88, Cuomo would probably have gotten the lions share of establishment support. In '92, many activists (especially outside the NE) and much of the establishment was absolutely dead set against nominating another liberal northerner. And Cuomo's New York woes in '91/'92 would have only made them more suspicious about his electability. Clinton would have given him a good fight and might well have prevailed.

I can easily see a situation where Cuomo wins New Hampshire but Clinton comes out a strong second, slightly ahead of Paul Tsongas. Clinton then goes on to carry most of the Southern primaries, knocks out Tsongas fairly early and ultimately overcomes Cuomo by late spring.

[PinkTiger]

20. No.

President Reagan was an immensely popular president who attracted people to Republican politics who considered themselves, before, to be Democrats. There was also a religious fervor among Republicans, who infliltrated churches and made it appear that to be anything other than a Republican was anti-God. This is similar to the "liberals are anti-American" attitude of 2001- present.
Dukakis was an East Coast Liberal (their words) and he seemed somewhat strange and alien to most Americans in the heartland. He was Greek, he had an accent, and his wife was an alcoholic. People are so funny about their voting -- they want the President and family to embody some ideal in their heads that doesn't exist - and Dukakis just didn't fit it.
Cuomo would have been attacked for being Italian.

Today, we have George Bush, who is seen by most people, even GOP, as being a crook and a liar. He is, at best, ineffective and weak. His VP is even worse - most people consider him evil and scary.

The only thing that would keep the Democrats from winning is for them to wake up in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. LOL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I'm Cautiously Optimistic

Don't forget if not for 30,000 votes in Hawaii and Ohio Gerald Ford would have beat Jimmy Carter in 1976 and this was in the aftermath of Watergate and Carter was running against Richard Nixon's handpicked successor...


I might get pilloried for saying this but Gerald Ford was the last decent Republican...He was pro choice, pro ERA, and pro affirmative action... He shied away from racial politics and even filed an amicus brief as an ex president in favor of his alma mata ,the University of Michigan's affirmative action program , when it was challenged in the Supreme Court...

He had his partisan momemnts when he tried to impeach William O Douglas but he was a decent guy...

[book_worm]

30. Yes!!! because Cuomo was a smart politician

Remember Dukakis had a 17-point lead after the Dem convention and could have won but he ran a terrible campaign and let Bush define him. I don't think that would have happened with Cuomo. So how could Mario have done it? Look at the states that Duke lost by only 1-3 points:
California
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Maryland
Missouri
Vermont
Maine
Conneticut
Colorado

Furthermore lets say Cuomo picked Bentsen as his running mate, just as Duke did, and Bentsen without being saddled with Dukakis may have made Texas much more competitive.

I don't think that Cuomo would have blown a 17-point lead.

[H2O Man]

31. "Diaries

of Mario M. Cuomo: The Campaign for Governor" (Random House; 1984) is a fascinating book. It covers from 11-5-80 to 11-27-83. In my opinion, it remains one of the most important books for democrats at the grass roots level to read to appreciate the art of campaigning.