By: Mike Allen
Aug 11, 2007 08:17 PM EST
The Bush administration is finishing a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq that paints a sobering picture of
a mature civil war unlikely to be snuffed out through political progress, according to officials involved in the report’s preparation.
A late draft of the
document warns of the possibility of a spectacular attack in conjunction with a crucial mid-September assessment by Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Iraq.
With the Petraeus-Crocker report looming, some administration officials say they fear a coordinated onslaught like the Tet offensive, a surprise country-wide series of attacks that produced a psychological victory for Vietnamese Communists in 1968.
“We’re concerned about the desire of Al Qaeda to undertake some Tet offensive-style attack in conjunction with the Petraeus report to influence political opinion to the extent that people would lose their stomach for the fight,” one of the officials said.
Gordon Johndroe, National Security Council spokesman and deputy White House press secretary for foreign affairs, said: "The NIE, an update to the one from February 2nd, will likely offer a picture of the current successes as well as the remaining challenges we face in Iraq, and, like the previous NIE on Iraq, the consequences of pursuing different courses of action."
An NIE from January, called “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead,” provided what outside analysts called a brutal assessment. Key judgments released Feb. 2 pointed to “an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism.”
National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, however, told reporters in a briefing then that the NIE did “suggest that we can succeed with the right policies, and we think we've developed the right policy, the right strategy, the right approach.”
more(emphasis added)
Doesn't matter where this is coming from (Politico), the Bush admin is ready to strike fear into the heart of Americans.
Bush admin: "
There is no military solution to Iraq." Scratch that, "We can succeed with the right policies."
On edit: How many times and for how long did the Bush admin deny that Iraq was in a civil war? Now, when it's convenient to further their evil agenda, they're willing to admit that it's a mature civil war!
"(T)his is not just a civil war -- by historical standards, it's a relatively large scale civil war."