The first serious threat of the season seems to be organizing in the Atlantic.

[RL3AO]

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.



The area being watched is area #2. Most models are developing this system and IMO, I think Hurricane Dean could form out of this. This could be the big story next week if it develops.

[BellaB]

1. I will be watching this

because my kids live on the gulf coast of FL, they were hit direct by Charlie.

[Dr.Phool]

2. I'll be heading back to Florida myself this week.

I was dodging tornados in Ohio this week.

[BellaB]

5. So was I

They hit all around where I live, I am in NW Ohio and alot of the twisters were right in this region.

[onethatcares]

3. thanx for the heads up,

I live on the west central coast, no, not the beach, I'm too poor for that.

[RL3AO]

4. It is likely that the NHC will issue the first advisory tonight at 11.

[RL3AO]

6. Tropical Depression Four forms--projected to become a hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5_sm2+gif/145027W_sm.gif

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

----

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...BUT IT IS
MOSTLY CONFINED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0723Z THIS MORNING
ONLY CAPTURED THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOME BELIEVABLE 30-KT WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 12Z WERE 25-30 KT...ALTHOUGH THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SINCE 12Z. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/18...BUT MORE
RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MIGHT BE
EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. WITH THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MIGHT
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND FAIRLY BRISK. A VERY GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON DAY THREE AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS.

THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN
THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 12.0N 31.6W 30 KT (35 mph)
12HR VT 14/0000Z 12.0N 34.3W 35 KT (40 mph)
24HR VT 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W 40 KT (45 mph)
36HR VT 15/0000Z 11.9N 41.4W 45 KT (50 mph)
48HR VT 15/1200Z 11.9N 44.7W 50 KT (60 mph)
72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 51.0W 60 KT (70 mph)
96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 57.5W 75 KT (85 mph Cat 1 hurricane)
120HR VT 18/1200Z 16.0N 63.5W 90 KT (100 mph Cat 2 hurricane)

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[DemoTex]

7. You hit the nail on the head yesterday ...

Dr. D. is going to Pawley's Island this weekend .. maybe. She knows I don't brook lolly-gagging around when heavy weather approaches the coast. Been there, done that (too many times).

[RL3AO]

8. If it doesn't get its act together quick, it might be Madam Erin.

A new system is the Gulf of Mexico is getting organized quick.

[RL3AO]

9. Still a depression, watching another area near Cuba.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5_sm2+gif/204522W_sm.gif