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Pat Buchanan: The collapse of the US dollar is approaching

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Karmadillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 05:51 PM
Original message
Pat Buchanan: The collapse of the US dollar is approaching
I don't have the exact quote, but he made it as an aside during a conversation on the "achievements" of the Boy Emperor on MSNBC's Dumb Tuck Carlson show. Maybe he's heavily invested in gold, but there's enough talk of this happening to worry those of use who know little about economics. Down below is a 2004 essay from Richard Heinberg's Museletter that suggests a similar fate for the dollar. Does anyone think the collapse is likely? If so, what, other than panic, should one do to protect dollar based assets?

http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/149

#149 The Endangered US Dollar

<edit>

To understand why the dollar is America's Achilles heel, a metaphor is useful. Imagine being able to write checks and then convince the people you give them to not to cash them. Perhaps they find the checks themselves comforting to hold onto; or maybe you have a friend who agrees to sell groceries or gasoline for your checks only, and then happily stockpiles and re-circulates them. In either case, you may be tempted to write checks for much more than you have in your bank account. As long as the checks themselves are regarded as valuable and not cashed, you get a free ride. But if people stop finding your checks comforting to hold onto, or if your friend starts selling groceries for other people's checks or for gold or silver, then the game is up. It will be revealed that your account is overdrawn and you will be in trouble.

The metaphor is not perfect. In fact, every nation in the world is attempting to write checks beyond its means. But the US has managed to do by far a better job of it than any other nation. The checks we are not talking about are not just hoarded paper dollars (though there are billions of these stuffed in mattresses around the world) but dollar-denominated investments and securities, including T-bills, stocks, and mortgages. Currently the US is running a $700 billion per year trade deficit, this on top of trillions in government debt and trillions more in consumer debt. No other nation in the world comes remotely close to this level of bad-check writing, on either a total or a per-capita basis.

If a run on the US dollar were to occur, then the only financial solution would be to create even more dollars (presumably through government borrowing), which of course wouldn't actually solve the problem and would in the long run make matters worse. The currency would become almost worthless, and in the process real wealth (land, factories, and natural resources) would be confiscated and turned over to creditors.

What could cause this to happen? A decision by OPEC to openly sell oil for euros could be a trigger. Some oil is already quietly being sold for euros, and several countries including Iran and Saudi Arabia have floated the possibility of valuing oil against a basket of currencies (meaning, effectively, dollars and euros). The Arab OPEC states have also toyed with an idea that must be equally worrisome to Brussels and Washington: to sell oil for gold (the gold dinar). If and when this happens, the full wrath of America will descend upon the Arab Middle East - and that's why it hasn't happened yet.

The other likely trigger would be a collapse of the US economy from within resulting from a bursting of the mortgage bubble. The recent US economic "recovery" arose almost entirely from low mortgage rates (set ultimately by the Fed), which allowed families to refinance their homes, cash out some of their equity, and use the money for immediate consumption. With oil prices soaring, the Fed will eventually have to raise interest rates steeply in order to contain inflation. But this may cause millions of homeowners to default on their currently low-interest adjustable-rate mortgages. In that event, property values would plummet, and with them would go the stock market and the economy as a whole.

If the Fed's real owners are confident in the present Washington leadership, they will do everything in their power to delay the inevitable until after the election (and this is what they seem to be doing). If they think it is time for a regime change, we may see the great unraveling begin even before November.

In either case, the response of US political leaders may be merely to seek foreign scapegoats. As Stan Goff writes in his recent essay, "Persian Peril" (www.fromthewilderness.com), it appears as if Iran is currently being set up as the next domino in the neocons' crusade for democracy in the Middle East. With Iranian and Russian cooperative energy agreements blooming, a US attack on Iran could be the trigger for another all-out conflict on the order of the World Wars of the 20th century. On the other hand, it is possible that the disastrous outcome of the Iraq invasion has sunk deep enough into the awareness of Washington elites that further similar adventures (however desperately sought by the neocons) will be headed off by cooler minds.
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 05:54 PM
Response to Original message
1. I don't know if this will help, but I transferred all my savings into Euro-Pacific
Edited on Wed Aug-15-07 05:55 PM by librechik
Growth funds.

Then it turned out most of these entities are heavily invested in the US dollar.

So I have no idea if it will save my retirement.

Keepin my fingers crossed.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 05:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. My entire pension is in Euros
and my fingers and toes are crossed.
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Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I've got half my 401K in Euro-Pacific.
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Mutineer Donating Member (659 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. Here's what I'm worried about
the collapse of the US Dollar will then lead to collapses elsewhere. So I'm really confused as to where and how to invest my money.
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MLFerrell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 09:08 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. One word: Gold.
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Canuckistanian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. My wife is thankful she has NO US Equities in her portfolio
But that doesn't mean that everything else is safe, I guess.
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
4. The upswing in the dollar lately is only temporary.
It's simply money coming out of the stock market, on its way to other investments. It will not stay in the dollar for long.
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MrModerate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 06:03 PM
Response to Original message
5. Money and magic are largely indistinguishable concepts.
The little anecdote about at the beginning of the article including the phrase "a friend who agrees to sell groceries or gasoline for your checks" is exactly the way money works already. Money is a convenient fiction created because you can't exchange the value of goods and services among people by physically swapping horses or baskets of grain. They figured that out 10,000 years ago.

Will the dollar collapse? Who knows? I do know that the biggest losers in such a situation would be the uberrich -- they have so much more to lose compared to those of us who are just hanging on by our fingernails -- and so they are likely to exert all their considerable influence to prevent such a disruption of the system(s) that feed(s) them so well.
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TheFarseer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Dick Cheney probably has more invested in Euros
Edited on Wed Aug-15-07 06:16 PM by TheFarseer
than most of us will earn in a lifetime. The same goes for most uber-rich. Don't worry about them. They have their contingency plan.
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MrModerate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-17-07 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #9
20. Yes, but if you're uberrich, the notion of becoming . . .
Merely rich (or, fates preserve, just "wealthy") is soul-shattering. They'll exert ever fiber of their beings to avoid such a circumstance.

Cheney probably has platinum bars stacked five-high around the walls of his den in Wyoming, and stuffs his Lay-Z-Boy with bags of Kruggerands. Loss of wealth is not something he's facing. However, with his defective cardiopulmonary system, he is going to die before most of us (gotta love those stents!), and with any luck, it'll be while pacing his cell in the Hague.
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 06:09 PM
Response to Original message
7. Pat Buchannan is a libertarian, gold horder and simply batshit insane. NT
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Karmadillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. All likely true, but Richard Heinberg clearly is a smart guy.
And he's talking as if the collapse of the dollar is inevitable.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Pat Buchannan has been right more often than not
I don't agree with his solutions to problems - but he does tend to be on target when identifying what the problems are. It's been true for years that this could happen. If he is not just talking theoreticals, then I'd say we're in trouble.
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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #7
16. he is not a libertarian
He is a paleo-conservative.
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pretzel4gore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 06:28 PM
Response to Original message
11. the nazi idea....
hitler ran up germany's debt in the leadup to dubya dubya 2....i did a research article for a pal's master's degree a few years back, and the economic aspects of nazism, esp. this idea that they ran up the debt in the military buildup, with the understanding the bill to be paid (?) by using the resources of nations germany conquered: france belgium poland and russia (USSR) etc...
the reason THE BIG LIE works is simply that citizens can't believe their own leaders are so goddarn depraved, impossible in fact! yet the history is plain! Still a person can go through life not knowing that the nazis BLACKMAILED their own biz community! And americans etc grew up thinking that germany was a peculiar case (the holocaust came in handy, showing how germany was crazy and the lesson wasn't applicab;e for us cuz our leaders are sound, righteous freedom loving xians etc)
If junyer bush is ever credited with anything, he exposed forever the big lie, and the massive infrastructure that supports it.
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Just as Bush has everyone believing
that if we invade Iraq & Iran and steal their oil, we'll be able to pay down the debt he's run up.

Do Dem leaders in Congress ever worry about this stuff or try to figure out how to stop him?
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pretzel4gore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-16-07 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. ever heard of the north american union?
in the background of bush's criminal activity is a larger crooked scheme: to unite canada, mexicio and usa under one.....whatever....the idea is the secret governments of the 3 countries are quietly assembling sets of laws and rules and so on which will see them pretend in a couple years that we the people were part of process all the time- bald faced lies which 99 percent of the population knows are false still work when the pigmedia is totally under control of mr pig! Bush maybe has over reached mr pig's plans, but as we can see, they are lying like monkees on every newscast to hide the facts...fukkem....hahaha (i love the idea of telling the freepers that soon canada and mexico gonna divvy up the usa, under cover of foxnews/cnn etc, and maybe deport all resisters, ie as terrorists, to africa, or maybe siberia...lol)
as far as the dem leadership, well they operate under astonishingly vicious rules- bush inc are mass murderers, and aids/child porn etc are tools to isolate (swiftboat) anyone who stands out, and the dems know it.. the criminals can/will create that kinda stuff, easy as 911. 'we the people' have to let it be known we're here for the dems. MAYBE best hope is the stock market collapses :)
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
12. There are games within games.
And people who give economic advice (make economic predictions) often have some financial interest in the matter; are driven/influenced by ideological considerations; have other powerful predispositions that influence/drive them -- and/or are just plain lying/bullshitting.

While the overall economic situation isn't great, I see some things going on that speak to double (triple, whatever; disguised) games.

If appropriate valuation levels are overshot on the downside, then there are potentially large profits to be made when these valuations recover. (Specifically, running the stock market up and down can greatly profit those who buy and sell at the right times* -- which is particularly appealing when high returns through easier means aren't so readily available.) And when the speculators get antsy, sometimes it doesn't take much to make them panic.

In short, I'm thinking that there are those who are looking to profit off a panic... the sooner the better.

*: Which is fairly easy to do -- if you're driving the ups and downs. I have an old story to tell about this (market "cycling"), but it's uncomfortably hot here (temperature, interestingly enough, can greatly influence state), and verifying my memories is just too much work.
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LastDemocratInSC Donating Member (580 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
15. What does he mean by "the Fed's real owners"?
In the next to last paragraph he says ...

"If the Fed's real owners are confident in the present Washington leadership, they will do everything in their power to delay the inevitable until after the election (and this is what they seem to be doing). If they think it is time for a regime change, we may see the great unraveling begin even before November."

Who are the Fed's "real owners"?
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-15-07 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. The Fed is a privately owned for-profit corporation, just like any other.
Edited on Wed Aug-15-07 09:25 PM by Selatius
The list of shareholders is private information. Nobody outside the Fed knows who owns the Fed and thus controls the monetary policy/supply of dollars in the US. The Federal Reserve is not a federal organ whatsoever; it's private and exists to generate a profit for the shareholders. The Founding Fathers were largely opposed to the idea of a private central bank dictating public monetary policy, after their experiences with the bankers in London crippling the colonial economies.

The bankers put profit ahead of the public good, and Benjamin Franklin asserts it's one of the biggest reasons why there was a Revolution in the Colonies. British Parliament outlawed Colonial Scrip at the lobbying of English bankers in the Currency Act of 1764.
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