Hurricane Dean update

[ClintonTyree]

Looks like Dean may be a bit more of a problem for the U.S. mainland than previously expected. It's predicted to turn into at least a CAT 4, possibly a CAT 5 Hurricane and then turn into the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models are trending it's path on a more north/northwestern track. There's some talk about it effecting Texas or western Louisiana. I hope that talk is erroneous.




Computer models:



I've found over the past few years that the UKMET models have been more reliable than the others and that model has it heading in a more northward path than before.

Let's hope for the best here. Southeastern Texas and Louisiana certainly don't need the rain and wind punishment this could bring.

[kdmorris]

1. Well, no one ever needs it

But, yeah, they need it less than others right now.

I keep watching the Water Vapor loop, hoping that it will still catch that Low over the Bahamas and go out to sea.

That's not going to happen, of course, but one can hope. Unfortunately, the NHC is usually pretty accurate with these things, so hoping that a storm will do something completely contrary to what they say is usually a losing bet.

[Selatius]

2. I'll wait until next week until I pay attention to the forecast models.

When Katrina first hit the Gulf after rolling through uneventfully through Florida, I remember early forecasts saying it would swing north and hit the Florida panhandle, but they were off. It maintained its westward motion. It didn't swing northward until much later, and that left it in a path that would take it just east of New Orleans, somewhere near the Louisiana-Mississippi border. We know what happened afterward.

[ima_sinnic]

3. omg, a direct hit on Jamaica--that is awful

as with any other poor island nation, Jamaica can ill afford the devastation and suffering that that will inevitably cause. I have loved ones in Jamaica and now will be worrying about them, trapped on that island.

[matcom]

4. I'm worried about Mexico

x(

[TZ]

5. this storm is clearly bad news for somebody

where it hits who knows. But I think anybody that lives around the Gulf should be paying close attention.
And it does look bad for Jamaica who can get really bad flooding from just normal thunderstorms.

[liberal N proud]

6. I could still strike anywhere on the US coast

From Texas to North Carolina. Hurricanes can do some crazy patterns out there and once they get in the Gulf, anything goes.

[Cetacea]

7. And if it stalls, all bets are off. (nt)

[texpatriot2004]

8. I hope Hur Dean avoids NOLA nm