WTF: Hurricane Dean projected to be Cat 4 and Cat 5

[malaise]

respectively for Jamaica, Yucatan and looks like Texas.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Yah :^(

[maddezmom]

2. stay safe malaise

It looks like it may be a big one. Wonder if * will come back from vacation this time?

[malaise]

34. Thanks

Bush is a disaster on his own. :D

[spotbird]

60. Where will you go for the storm?

Are you prepared?

Good luck and stay safe.

[SheilaT]

3. I must say, that the first time

I saw a headline here on DU that said "Hurricane Dean" I thought it was something about Howard Dean making waves, so to speak.

Maybe if he'd acquired the nickname "Hurricane" he'd be president today. :)

[Justyce]

6. Me too -- I saw a headline

that said "Higher Gas Prices? Blame Dean!" and my blood pressure instantly shot up & I thought HOW can they possibly try to blame him, until I realized they meant the hurricane... lol

[DemReadingDU]

50. I thought it ironic, that a hurricane is called Dean

A powerful force is coming back to haunt the Bush administration

[MuseRider]

4. Be safe.

Keep us informed on how you are please.

[fed-up]

5. great, I have a brother in Austin, TX and a sis in Belize-at least they are somewhat inland nt

[malaise]

15. I have a niece in Houston and a nephew

in Midlands.

[Fleshdancer]

36. Please be sure to contact them

They really need to start preparing now. Do they have anywhere to go further inland?

[malaise]

44. We're in touch

they don't joke with hurricanes.

[tammywammy]

22. Texas is already preparing

They're getting ready and are getting ready for the evacuations.

And still, there's no way to really know where it's going to land at right now.

[tblue37]

53. My brother is 1 hour south of Houston--very near the coast.

He evacuated for Rita. I am quite sure he won't evacuate this time, though.

[SoCalDem]

7. It's that time of year, and we got a slow start..so watch out!

We have this beast to contend with ...but for now it's sleeping

and other places have different dangers..

Mother Earth can kick our ass..anytime she wants..no matter who we are or where we are :scared:

[InvisibleTouch]

16. San Andreas Fault?

At least I'm guessing that's the fault in your picture, given your user ID. Cool pic! Don't know that I'd want to live over it, but cool pic none the less. :)

[SoCalDem]

18. That's it.. It's very impressive

I'm hoping it stays asleep..at least while everyone I know is still living here:)

[InvisibleTouch]

19. By all means!

Here in the Midwest we have the little-known New Madrid fault as a potential threat - not running directly under us, but extensive enough to affect the entire region if it really lets go. The last big quake in historical times was so intense that the Mississippi River ran backwards. Some 10-15 years ago there was some kind of a prediction that we were in for a monster quake (I don't remember by what means or who predicted this), and my mother panicked and took all the pictures down off her walls, all the dishes out of the cabinets, laid all the bookshelves down ... and absolutely nothing happened. :)

May you be equally as lucky.

[SheilaT]

46. It was Iben Browning

in 1990 who made the prediction. Here's a link to lots of information about the New Madrid fault: http://www.greatdreams.com/madrid.htm.

I'd first heard about it and the quakes of 1811-12 from the John Nance book On Shaky Ground, which starts out with five chapters about the 1964 Good Friday Quake in Alaska. Great book.

[CoffeeCat]

51. My relatives used to tease me...

...because I was born on the day of the Alaska quake...March 27, 1964.

I always retorted, "Well. You can't ever say that you weren't warned about me!"

[RaleighNCDUer]

21. Not all that slow -- both Fran and Floyd hit NC in early September

so a 'D' in mid-august isn't too unreasonable.

[murray hill farm]

8. Stay with us, Malaise...until the electricity goes out.

a couple of years ago, I was living on Isla Mujeres..a tiny island off the coast of cancun, when Wilma hit with a cat 4 vengence. As it approached, I held onto DU as long as I could...and it was a lifeline for me of continual support and prayers and sending of caring energy. I think, in so many ways, it is the force that got me through it all. Pat

[fed-up]

11. I remember your posts and pics and was glad when you finally gave the a-ok nt

[malaise]

13. I remember how we were worried about you

We'll survive and adjust to the inconvenience for a while.

[SoCalDem]

17. Your ears must have about burned off. We are all worried about you all night long

and were very relieved when you checked back in :hug:

[Virginia Dare]

9. The bush administration is busily not anticipating any disaster..

if there's anybody left minding the store that is...has skeletor taken his ant-acid yet?x(

[youthere]

10. Any chances it's headed straight for the Bush ranch in Crawford?

and that Bush will be out clearing brush? Crap. Didn't think so.

[halobeam]

12. I've been watching Dean since he was coming off the Alaska coast

once it started to become a possibility of being a major player, I didn't know what to think. It could've taken off north and east, but didn't go that way. It could've gone even more south, but didn't do that either.

Yesterday it had a model reading a last minute northern lift into west LA and I almost felt sick. I thought don't hit Fla, they can't take it anymore and most certainly don't hit Louisianna or Mississippi because that is as cruel as it could get. What do ya think when you know it has to hit someone and then it is a possibility of being a 4 or 5?? Only thought I had after this was, well, lets hope its Mexico, because at least they might take care of their own people. Isn't that f'in sad? Obviously I'd like an unexpected factor to break Dean down or direct him where he won't hit anyone, but that isn't looking possible. Maybe Mexico will show America, how to REALLY do what is necessary and right for the people. If it's in our country, we already know we are fucked by this government. Heard whomever is still here in Natn'l Guard are on alert for TX already. Perfect chance for a bad situation to get really f'ed up by Bush, cuz that what he does best.

[Junkdrawer]

14. Alaska??? s/b Africa... n/t

[Auggie]

20. Oh wow -- the Yucatan is projected to get clobbered again

[SoCalDem]

23. We had friends get clobbered by Wilma a few years back

My friend said she was ready to clobber her friend who was with her..

They spent days sleeping on the floor in a flooded school, and had little or nothing to eat and her friend (from NOO York City) was crying and shaking and having panic attacks nonstop.. The guys went in search of food, and left the women behing, so they ventured out into a clearing in the jungle and sat on a rock..just pondering their fate.. She said they had scrounged mis-matched flipflops, dirty clothes, matted dirty hair, and had the same muddy clithes on for 3 days..

My friend grew up in Compton California and she's no stranger to hardship.. She finally took her friend by the shoulders and said..."Calm down.. no one's shooting at us, we're alive, so STFU"..


She said, after that, her friend was much easier to get along with..:rofl:

they got out on a cruise ship a week later and most of their stuff was lost, but they were happy to be alive and home..

and of course they are headed back to their damned condo again in September :eyes:..(not with those friends, though)

[theHandpuppet]

24. Stay safe, malaise!

Better check those emergency stores now. Potable water top of the list. And check in with us after he's passed, okay?

[malaise]

30. Checking the list twice

Thanks. Still If I were George Bush, I'd clear Guantanamo Bay today.

[Jeanette in FL]

25. Stay safe Malaise

I have been thinking of you since yesterday when it seemed that Dean is headed for your area.

Please keep with us as long as possible and find a way to get back to us as soon as possible.

Will keep you and yours in my thoughts and prayers.

[malaise]

31. Thanks Jeanette in FL

We're ready for whatever comes. Two days to go.

[fed-up]

26. first hand account from my sis in Belize (her first REAL hurricane)

why do I feel like there's a bullseye painted on the Yucatan Peninsula?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad

this is my first REAL hurricane watch...

Hurricane Stan doesn't count, because I didn't KNOW it was coming, and only caught the back edge (minor flooding, torrential rains) of a Pacific storm, that hit the OTHER side of Central America.

this one's different, as we watch alerts, and evacuations out on the Caribbean islands, and ominous satellite photos, and cruise/airline reschedules, and fluctuating reports and predictions... "Cat 2" "Cat 3?" Cat 4?"

we have water, food, fuel, animal feed, a generator, candles, plywood, kerosene lamps, butane appliances, we really planned ahead here!

BUT... our new house doesn't yet have a front DOOR!

and that screened porch is looking rather vulnerable!

and OMG... there's trees all around... don't limbs turn into flying missiles? and what about the louvered glass windows? (damn, shoulda used WOOD louvers!)

and hey, what about the ANIMAL houses? how well tied down are they?

are we going to have to bring the baby ducklings and bunnies and guinea pigs and chickies INSIDE our house for safety?

what made me think UP this hare-brained idea of living in the jungle anyway?

and we have friends visiting us from the US next week... will flights be cancelled? what about their "layover" in Texas, at Bush Int'l Airport? will the hurricane GO that way? will it be OVER by then?

I'm used to earthquakes, and forest fires, being from California.

but all I have to say is... THIS is different!

it's like being Polly Purebred, tied to the tracks, KNOWING there's a train coming, but on WHICH track? Will Dudley DoRight arrive in time?

will Hurricane Dean follow IVAN's path from 2004?

will all of my friends' places on the coast of Belize be okay?

will the hurricane continue to gather strength?

or will Dean just fizzle out?

I must say, I FINALLY understand the root cause of Hurricane Parties!

it's like a rollercoaster ride... exciting, scary, and nerve-wracking, but with such a SLOW and EXCRUCIATING wait!

nothing else to do after days of that, than to just get sloshed and pass out.

but we don't have time for shennanigans... there's WORK to be done!

cross your fingers kiddies... and KEEP 'em crossed, until next TUESDAY!

can you hold that position for six days?

love and hugs, from the jungles of Central America, waiting... waiting...waiting...

[Tommy_Carcetti]

28. Hope you stay safe

I hope you stay safe. Belize is beautiful from what both my dad and my sister have told me.

[fed-up]

29. I'm safe here in toxic hell, earthquake, west nile country, it's my sis that is in Belize...nt

[malaise]

32. No forecast says Belize but you never know with hurricanes n/t

[Lorien]

39. Tell her to take in the animals, tape up the windows

(packing tape works well) and don't worry too much about the trees. My house is surrounded by huge old live oaks and they actually sheltered my home through three hurricanes in 2004-though I did lose one of the most beautiful trees. Move herself and the animals to the inner most, window free areas of the home-such as bathrooms or closets. Fill the sinks and tubs with water and keep as much bottled water and batteries on hand as possible. Plenty of no cook food as well, such as granola bars. Fill the gas tank if she has a car. Don't go to a hurricane "party", half the time the idiots at those stand on balconies, screaming drunk, and get hit by flying debris.

Good luck to her!

[RestoreGore]

27. Recommended. Please stay safe.

[malaise]

43. Thanks n/t

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

==================
GROVELBOT.EXE v4.0
==================



This week is our third quarter 2007 fund drive. Democratic
Underground is a completely independent website. We depend on donations
from our members to cover our costs. Thank you so much for your support.

[Canuckistanian]

37. Very prudent, Grovelbot!

Danger indeed!

[SidDithers]

35. Update from Jeff Masters' blog at weatherunderground...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

St. Lucia got hit hard, with the roof of the Pediatric Wing of Victoria Hospital being ripped off.

Models are confused 3 and 4 days out, but:

The NOAA jet flew last night, collecting a large amount of high-quality data around Dean's environment that was used to initialize the latest (06Z) model runs. These models continue to unanimously show a grave threat to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands two days from now. Even if Dean misses these islands, it won't be by much, and residents should expect hurricane conditions, as Dean should be an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm by then.

Jamaican DU'ers, please keep reporting in, especially after the storm so we know you're OK.

Sid

[RL3AO]

38. Looks like this could be a cat 4 by tonight.

The eye is clearing up.

[Canuckistanian]

40. He says that Texas is going to be in danger of flooding

He says that Erin is continuing to dump heavy rain across southern Texas, saturating the ground.



If Dean hits the same area, all that water will have no place to go.
:scared:

[tammywammy]

41. Yep

that area has had plenty of rain this year. Like I said in another post, sorry for those folks in Brownsville, but that's where I'm hoping that Dead lands.

[Fleshdancer]

42. I think the news said Corpus Christi got 8 inches yesterday?

If not Corpus, then perhaps the Houston area. The saturation is INSANE. The moment a drop of rain hits the ground now, the emergency billboards along the highways warn us of potential flooding.

This is the strangest summer I have ever experienced in TX. Far less sun, temps that barely reach 100, extreme humidity, and everything is green and wet. It's tropical weather.

[alarimer]

56. We got very little rain yesterday

I am in Corpus. It was a very nice sunny day, after a little rain in the morning. Houston had more I think.

I think the storm was much further north than predicted. Once again our local meteorologists got in COMPLETELY wrong. There is a reason we call him "Dead-Wrong" Dale (Nelson). It is almost like clockwork; he predicts something; you can take it to the bank that the situation will be the complete opposite.

From the models I have seen so far (and I know that they can change a lot in a short time), most indicate it coming ashore in Mexico. Not that I wish that on anyone; I just don't want it here.

I am keeping an eye out but I am certainly not panicking or even worrying all that much.

[cutlassmama]

48. Nice...not! I'm in Texas :(

[trayted]

45. It'll be a Cat 4 before tomorrow. The Weather Channel always "underforecasts" to keep panic down

If you look at the satellite imagery on NOAA's website, the eye is already become more apparent, the outflow is perfect, and it's becoming a lot more "symmetrical." It'll be a 4 before tomorrow.

I project it will hit somewhere from Louisiana to Texas.

[Swamp Rat]

47. Your 5th rec.

Though you have prepared, I am still worried about you. :hug:

[babylonsister]

49. malaise, you're in my thoughts. Stay safe and get back to us ASAP! nt

[Catherine Vincent]

52. Malaise, you're in Jamaica?

I guess the Marley avatar should have tipped me off somewhat, duh! Stay safe on your beautiful island! :hi:

[Solly Mack]

54. Stay safe!!!

Please :)

[texanwitch]

55. I have been checking out my hurricane supplies I bought 2 years ago.

I brought solar lights after the hurricane, glad I did.

Anybody in the area that Dean might hit might want to buy some now while you still can.

[cutlassmama]

58. last time I bought A LOT of bottled water. It has since been drank up eom

[texanwitch]

59. That was crazy time here in Houston.

I live near I-10 and we would go down and just watch the cars crawl along.

I don't think so many people are going to leave this time.

My neighborhood was so quiet, it was strange.

I kept all my supplies in a clear storage box, all I need is batteries and water.

[Wednesdays]

57. It's a category 4 now...as of 9:05 PM ET; 145 MPH winds

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

Wind gusts have been clocked as high as 104 mph on Martinique.

Since passing the islands, Dean has strengthened quickly throughout the day. Dean now has top sustained winds of 145 mph; a destructive and life-threatening category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Dean's forecast track has become clearer, at least for the short term, and will likely bring dangerous hurricane conditions to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday and Monday respectively. A hurricane watch has now been posted for Jamaica.