RE Hurricane Dean ... does it get any plainer than this?

[thunder rising]

DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE
HIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF
SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

All the models agree.

NHC

The disaster teams must be getting into place NOW. Monday may be too late. This storm is going to make landfall somewhere and where ever it is, wouldn't it be nice if things were ready to dig people out?

I'm adding this:
This is a prediction of another "Whod'a thunk" moment. Except, we get to watch this one unfold.

[tammywammy]

1. Texas is getting ready

"Gov. Rick Perry will probably issue a declaration of "imminent threat" today and activate the emergency center in Austin on Saturday, WFAA-TV (Channel 8) reported Thursday night.

As part of the preparation for a possible Dean landfall, 4,500 National Guard troops have been placed on standby along with 700 buses. "

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/nation/stories/DN-weather_17tex.ART.State.Edition2.4355c45.html

[thunder rising]

13. Glad to hear that TX is on top of it

It does not take much from a President to focus some attention on a looming disaster.

Christ (FL) is probably in the closet with his boy friend, not that there's anything wrong with that, just that it's time for the leaders to start acting like leaders. You know, instead of waiting for the BLOGS to tell them what their job is.

[tammywammy]

15. I think they're getting their act together okay in Texas

Hurricane Rita evacuations were horrible. But mostly that was because you had the entire Houston area evacuating, when they didn't need to be, and then when SE Texas near Louisiana started to leave the roads were even more clogged up. Then it took freaking forever for them to make a major highway one way only.

Harris County (where Houston is) has over 4 million people alone, so it was a hell of a lot of people leaving. And then there weren't any hotel rooms either, since there were so many people from Katrina up here too. My family was driving to the DFW area from the Beaumont-Pt Arthur area, usually a 5.5 hour drive and it took them an average of 25 hours to make it up. They were lucky enough that they never ran out of gas. Plus, since Rita was so soon after Katrina people were just scared shitless pretty much.

[zulchzulu]

2. Pay no attention...move along...nothing to see here...no danger to the public....

The Repugs are going to blame Howard Dean for this!

:sarcasm:

[Virginia Dare]

22. No one could have anticipated a major hurricane hitting..

the gulf coast, blah blah blah....:argh:

[LynneSin]

3. Here's what scares the bejesus out of me - this thing could hit New Orleans

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/150024.gif.

Right now it looks to be heading for Texas but if this thing takes a slight turn north it could hit New Orleans instead. Are we ready for another Hurricane to hit this area. I'm guessing it'll be Cat3 by the time it gets there

[RL3AO]

5. But the thing is it can't turn into New Orleans. A ridge is blocking it.

For it to be able to hit New Orleans, the ridge will have to move into the Western Atlantic but it can't because a trough will block that from moving that far.

[LynneSin]

6. And they said a Hurricane could never hit Brazil either

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Catarina

Thing is - hurricanes are extremely unpredictable but hopefully what you said will happen

[RL3AO]

7. Whos they?

[karlrschneider]

10. The weathergirl in Manaus?

:shrug:

[SoCalDem]

9. or Spain...(but one did.. the first ever)

and who expected a tornado in Brooklyn?

All bets are off these days..

[uppityperson]

26. 1 of 5 models show it heading to LA, not Mexico....graphic...

[FourScore]

27. I'm gonna' go with the 4 out of 5 for now . n/t

[RL3AO]

28. Actually, its like 1 out of 40. That map only shows the big 5.

[uppityperson]

29. Yeah, GFDL is moving further south too.

It will bring rain out quite a ways but am glad it is headed as far west as it is, and hope it weakens a bunch. Bad time to be in Yucatan or Belize or between/around.

[Fleshdancer]

17. even if it doesn't hit NOLA, they're still going to get a lot of wind and rain

I have no idea what TX is going to do. Everything is completely saturated from the months of freak rains so we're flooding very quickly...the water has nowhere to go.

:(

[tammywammy]

18. It depends on where it lands in Texas

If it lands near Brownsville then Nola won't get wind or rain. And it could still land in Mexico. :shrug:

[Fleshdancer]

19. I'm hoping that's the case

We really don't need the rain in TX right now but I would rather get it here if it means NOLA is spared.

[tammywammy]

20. Oh, I know all about the rain!

I wouldn't mind a little up in North Texas though. :)

Yeah, sorry for anyone that lives in Brownsville, but I'm hoping it heads your way. My extended family lives in the Beaumont-Pt Arthur area. At least they were smart enough to buy generators after Hurricane Rita.

[RB TexLa]

4. There is a chance it hits Mexico or Louisiana then Americans won't have to care

[karlrschneider]

8. The last comment is a bit odd:

"IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY."

[SoCalDem]

11. reminds me of that song..

"Ohhh, I loved you more today than yesterday But darlin' not as much as tomorrow Tomorrow makes each spring time just a day away ..."

[RL3AO]

12. See this post I made yesterday.

The area I circled is an upper level low near the Bahamas. It is forecasted to slowly move across Florida and move across the Gulf towards Texas. This would prevent interaction between Dean and this low. But if the upper level low moves further south, it will interact with Dean and cause a more northwesterly turn which would not be good for Texas.



The second area is a ridge of high pressure over Texas. This will move east. If the ridge stays over Mississippi and Alabama it will prevent Dean from turning northwest and hitting Texas. But if it moves further east and settles over Georgia and northern Florida, it will allow Dean to move up the side or "periphery" and towards Southern or Central Texas.



The reason the track is more uncertain today than yesterday is because more of the models have the system interacting with the low and the NAM model is forecasting the ridge to be over the Atlantic, not Alabama in 5 days.

[cwydro]

14. I don't wish it on anyone,

but I hope the hell it stays away from us in the Keys.

[merh]

23. Is the cloud area east, south east of the tip of florida

the upper level low you mentioned last night?

[RL3AO]

24. Part of it. The actually low is just off the coast of Florida.

You can see the swirl on water vapor.

[RL3AO]

16. Looks like Dean is now a Category 3.

Air Force Recon found 115kt flight level winds which is about 100kts surface.

[AnnInLa]

I hate being in the position of hoping it doesn't come here,

to South Louisiana, because that means it would hit someone else on the Gulf Coast. But, I can't help hoping, with all being, not to see another hurricane. Ever. This weekend will be busy for us along the coast...so much to do and prepare for.

In addition, many of my good friends are living on, or visiting on the island of Isla Mujeres, off the coast of Cancun. Just got an email from friend there who said the tourists are frantically trying to get off the island by the two ferries to Cancun or Punta Sam. Said the store shelves are empty now, and people are moving up the island into the town part. Can't help remembering that last hurricane that sat on top of the island for 3 full days, devastating it and Cancun.

I hate hurricane season even more than I hate republics.

[merh]

25. you and me both

I don't know if I can take another one this way, not yet, I'll empty my fema trailer and take to high ground, but damn it to hell - we won't be able to come back from another one. not no way, not no how.

[RubyDuby in GA]

21. I'm sorry for any area that it hits, but please let GA get some rain out of this

We're over 16 inches behind for the year.
I'm about ready to start doing naked rain dances, and trust me - the neighbors don't want to see this!