Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2007 By BOBBY GHOSH
With Nouri al-Maliki's government teetering on the verge of collapse, Baghdad's Green Zone is humming with political maneuverings by Iraqi politicians who want his job. Given the dominance of the Shi'ite coalition in Iraq's legislature, the likelihood remains that the next Prime Minister — like Maliki and his predecessor, Ibrahim al-Jaafari — will come from within its ranks. And that fact alone means there's little likelihood of a major change in Iraqi government policies — bad news for the Bush Administration. Here's a look at the front-runners and the wild cards:
The Usual Suspects The Shi'ite coalition's most likely candidate is
Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a French-trained economist and political chameleon. Having been, at various points in his career, a communist, a Ba'athist and a secular liberal democrat, he has switched directions so many times it's hard to know which way he's going…
Former Prime Minister
Iyad Allawi, appointed by the U.S. but voted out in the first democratic election, is offering himself as a secular alternative to Maliki, but his own track record is not exactly inspiring either…
The Wild Cards Look out for
Ammar al-Hakim, the flamboyant and controversial son of SIIC leader Abdel-Azziz al-Hakim. With his father undergoing chemotherapy in Iran, the younger Hakim has had a major say in the running of the party…
One of the most unusual figures in Iraqi politics is
Mithal Alussi. He is Sunni — a major handicap in the Prime Ministerial stakes — but is widely viewed as secular and independent. He earned the wrath of Sunni insurgent groups when he visited Israel in the fall of 2004…
Like Alussi, deputy Prime Minister
Barham Saleh is seen as upright and secular. But he's a Kurd, which would make him unacceptable to the country's Arab majority…
Some analysts have begun to talk about the
"Musharraf option" — a Pakistan-style military dictatorship under a strongman willing to pursue U.S. interests. Sunni politicians have openly said they would prefer this to a Prime Minister from the Shi'ite Islamist parties. But none of Iraq's military commanders has looked a likely candidate, and the U.S. is unlikely to back a coup.
The wildest of wild cards is
Moqtada al-Sadr. The firebrand Shi'ite cleric has no interest in holding office himself — he regards himself as being above politics — but he is the country's most powerful player, and will likely have a major say in who gets Maliki's job…
Whenever an Iraqi prime minister looks shaky, you can count on
Ahmed Chalabi to put out the word that he is a candidate, and launch political maneuvers…
more Statement of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton Calling for Political Change in IraqThis is the same thing Obama was criticized for.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
A rumor is circulating among well-connected and formerly high-level Iraqi bureaucrats in exile in places like Damascus that a military coup is being prepared for Iraq. I received the following from a reliable, knowledgeable contact. There is no certitude that this plan can or will be implemented. That it is being discussed at high levels seems highly likely.
"There is serious talk of a military commission (majlis `askari) to take over the government. The parties would be banned from holding positions, and all the ministers would be technocrats, so to speak. . . (
The writer indicates that attempts have been made to recruit cabinet members from the ranks of expatriate technocrats.)
The six-member board or commission would be composed on non-political former military personnel who are presently not part of the government OR the military establishment, such as it is in Iraq at the moment. It is said that the Americans are supporting this behind the scenes.
The plan includes a two-year period during which political parties would not be permitted to be part of the government, but instead would prepare and strengthen the parties for an election which would not have lists, but real people running for real seats. The two year period would be designed to take control of security and restore infrastructure.
. . .(I)t is another
, but one which many many Iraqis will support, since they are sick of their country being pulled apart by the "imports" - Maliki, Allawi, Jaafari et al. The military group is composed of internals, people who have the goal of securing the country even at the risk of no democracy, so they say. "Edited to add Time article.
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