The Urban Legend: These Are The Places * Was Re-Elected , Do You Live There? Can You Explain?

[althecat]

THESE ARE THE PLACES WHERE BUSH WAS RE-ELECTED IN 2004. - Do
You Live There? Can You Explain?

(hat tip to Mad Maddie - Changed post title to better reflect
content)

DUERS.... 

IS YOUR COUNTY ON THIS LIST>>>>>>>> IF
SO CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY BUSH DID SO WELL IN YOUR COUNTY IN
2004?


Bush Largest Recorded County Vote Gains
over 30,000 increase from 2000 to 2004

				      Change	ChgPct	Bush		
ST	County	Precincts 	BUSH	BUSH	BUSH	Net	Incid	Method
AZ	Maricopa    	1004	57.2%	145,697	27.0%	8.6%	32	 Optical 
CA	LosAngeles    	4963	36.4%	142,610	14.9%	10.6%	36	 Optical 
CA	Riverside    	1093	58.4%	49,812	18.9%	18.7%	2	 DRE
CA	SanDiego    	3568	52.7%	46,329	10.5%	3.7%	9	 Optical 

FL	Brevard    	177	57.9%	37,653	24.6%	13.0%	4	 Optical 
FL	Broward    	618	34.8%	66,376	27.2%	12.7%	56	 DRE
FL	Miami-Dade    	614	46.8%	69,080	19.3%	0.2%	54	 DRE
FL	Duval    	268	57.9%	67,153	30.6%	-1.2%	12	 Optical 
FL	Hillsboro    	320	53.2%	63,846	26.1%	5.6%	21	 DRE

FL	Lee    	         150	60.1%	38,273	26.5%	4.5%	0	 Optical 
FL	Orange    	232	49.7%	57,873	30.1%	2.7%	16	 Optical 
FL	PalmBeach    	531	39.2%	58,943	27.8%	10.1%	88	 DRE
FL	Pasco    	132	54.5%	34,616	33.5%	15.6%	0	 DRE
FL	Pinellas    	345	49.8%	40,804	18.1%	7.1%	6	 DRE
FL	Polk    	163	58.7%	33,237	26.9%	14.4%	5	 Optical 
FL	Seminole    	133	58.2%	32,449	30.0%	6.9%	4	 Optical 

GA	Cobb    	152	62.5%	32,712	18.9%	2.5%	2	 DRE
GA	Gwinnett    	133	66.3%	38,257	23.9%	-0.6%	2	 DRE
HI	Honolulu    	214	48.6%	42,859	29.7%	21.3%	2	 Optical 
IL	Cook    	5016	29.4%	50,230	8.5%	-0.4%	84	 Punch 
IL	Will    	352	52.8%	33,592	26.0%	4.4%	4	 

MI	Macomb    	406	50.4%	37,063	18.4%	6.6%	1	 Lever
MI	Oakland    	608	49.5%	42,285	13.4%	1.3%	10	 Punch 
MI	Wayne    	1511	30.0%	37,960	14.8%	-0.9%	59	 DRE
MO	Shannon    	12	64.3%	242,143	-7.6%	15.7%	2	 Punch 
NV	Clark Co    	677	47.3%	82,500	32.6%	2.7%	24	 DRE

NJ	Bergen    	554	47.8%	34,462	19.3%	18.2%	4	 DRE
NJ	Monmouth    	428	54.7%	42,999	26.6%	25.6%	0	 Lever
NJ	Ocean    	292	60.4%	41,758	29.0%	36.2%	0	 DRE

NY	Brooklyn    	1888	24.8%	67,235	42.9%	38.0%	63	 Lever
NY	Nassau    	1070	46.7%	64,523	23.1%	25.3%	2	 Lever
NY	Queens    	1470	28.0%	41,325	26.4%	21.8%	23	 Lever
NY	Suffolk    	1006	48.8%	77,671	25.7%	19.8%	0	 Lever
NY	Wstchester    	948	40.7%	38,923	25.4%	7.3%	6	 Lever

NC	Wake    	169	51.5%	30,069	17.4%	-6.7%	1	 Optical 
OH	Cuyahoga    	1506	33.2%	30,935	14.3%	-6.8%	75	 Punch 
OH	Franklin    	760	45.9%	41,170	17.6%	-11.3%	82	 DRE
OK	Oklahoma    	273	64.2%	35,629	20.4%	4.3%	0	 Optical 

PA	Allegeny    	1309	42.5%	33,311	12.4%	2.6%	31	 Lever
PA	Bucks    	298	48.6%	31,835	20.7%	2.5%	3	 Lever
PA	Montgmry    	405	44.2%	30,938	18.0%	-2.3%	5	 DRE

TX	Bexar    	626	55.3%	44,226	17.0%	5.0%	6	 DRE
TX	Collin    	127	71.7%	44,854	25.9%	-11.3%	0	 DRE
TX	Denton    	126	70.4%	38,403	27.3%	-4.8%	0	 Paper
TX	Harris    	935	55.1%	54,874	9.5%	-2.6%	37	 DRE
TX	Tarrant    	535	62.8%	62,451	17.9%	1.7%	2	 Optical 

UT	SaltLake    	688	60.5%	38,415	18.4%	0.1%	0	 
WA	King    	2707	34.1%	44,058	15.2%	-7.2%	0	 Optical 
WA	Pierce    	635	48.5%	39,987	27.5%	8.9%	0	 Optical 

*********

Althecat Chanelling TIA

DUERS.... IS YOUR COUNTY ON THIS
LIST>>>>>>>>IF SO CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY
BUSH DID SO WELL IN YOUR COUNTY?

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MadMaddie]

2. Sooo...............does this mean

that 30,000 valid eligible voters moved there?
or 30,000 votes were fraud?

I am sure there are other possibilities but it would interesting to check the populations, registered Rethuglican voters and Actual Rethuglican votes recorded. That would be very interesting indeed.

[althecat]

4. These places are where Bush was re-elected.

These places are where Bush was re-elected.

It shows where bush increased his vote by serious real numbers....

[bleever]

6. After the 2000 fiasco, they desperately needed to win the popular vote

as well as the electoral college in order to cement their legitimacy.

Even last weekend, Rove was still talking about the legitimacy question. :)

[L. Coyote]

20. Huge increase in total voters in 2004.

[althecat]

3. For Background See - Michael Collins/Autorank/Scoop "The Urban Legend"

BACKGROUND...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0706/S00165.htm (on scoop)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=474094&mesg_id=474094 (in DU ERD)



BACKGROUND...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0706/S00165.htm (on scoop)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=474094&mesg_id=474094 (in DU ERD)

[althecat]

11. More background.... .find the ghosts research thread. (CRUNCH YOUR OWN NUMBERS HERE TOO)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x474370

[bleever]

5. Any of those changes is plausible. All of them? Impossible.

At least, if the totals reflected actual votes cast by real people.

One kooky result might be hard to swallow, but still possible. That's what the bell curve is about. But when so many kooky results all occur together, and overwhelmingly to the benefit of one candidate, the conspiracy theorists are the ones claiming there must be a perfectly good explanation, even though they don't know what it is.

[althecat]

7. If you beleive too then come sign on on the Bleevers Mighty Whale!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=374070&mesg_id=481097

[HughBeaumont]

8. Explain "Bush was re-elected" . . .

. . . because I live in Cuyahoga County, and I can MORE than assure you Kerry won this county by the widest of all county margins in Ohio. Franklin County (home of Columbus) came a close second in that regard.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/index.html

Now, does your stats mean Kerry should have won by MORE votes? Because that, I agree with. I believe Cuyahoga should have been a far greater landslide than it was.

[althecat]

10. Heres the line from the stats on Cuyahoga... you can probably clarify mistakes

OH	Cuyahoga    	1506	33.2%	30,935	14.3%	-6.8%	75	 Punch 

I think this means to read across that.

1. there are 1506 precincts in Cuyahoga
2. bush received 33.2% of the vote
3. this was a "real numbers" increase in his vote of
30,935 votes and a percentage increase in his vote of 14%

(Did you see lots of  Bush GOTV activities in Cuyahoga County?
14% is a pretty impressive vote growth rate.)

4. not completely sure what this figure means (Bush Net)
5. there were 75 voting incident reports
6  and the method used is punch card voting

[L. Coyote]

21. Bush had a lower % of votes in 2004. This is deceptive because

the total number of voters increased in 2004. What is really reflected is the sizes of counties.

[Patsy Stone]

9. He's just so likable

and 21% more people showed up to vote for him in Honolulu in 2004 because he was the guy they wanted to have a beer with the most.

Another possible explanation: cheating.

:hi:

ed: grm.

[bleever]

12. Just think if he'd

worn a pancake on his head.

But no; they had to cheat. So sad.

[Patsy Stone]

15. Well, my friend

Hindsight is 20-20.

[bleever]

19. And to be fair, we did know that

there we things that we didn't know that we didn't know.

Guess the pancake thing was one of them. No one could have anticipated it.

Also: "Holocaust Survivors for Buchanan"'s membership boom.

[DaveJ]

13. Why is Cook Co. - Chicago - on the list?

I am engulfed here and there is no way the people here support Bush, or the Republican thinking in general. I'm not a certified statistician but even though we are on this list, the numbers point toward lower support overall according to the Net column I think.

[althecat]

26. Yes... however bush's vote in Cook was up 50,000 votes...

There be the urban ghosts we are going on about - thats an 8.5% increase in Bush's turnout in Cook which was only a fraction behind the boost in kerry's vote in the county hence the -0.4% net figure.

[OnTheOtherHand]

54. no, it isn't

Please reread the article. According to the article, the urban ghosts you are going on about are the ones in that national exit poll table, not the ones in the official returns. The article expressly points out that the national exit table doesn't match the official returns in this respect.

[althecat]

59. If you say so OTOH....

:eyes:

[OnTheOtherHand]

62. the article DOESN'T say that?!

There was no 66% increase in urban voting; but there was an increase consistent with the national average, about 16% based on actual voting data from the over 50% sample of big cities presented above.... How did the NEP get it so wrong on the urban vote?

You're lucky that so few people actually read this stuff.

[althecat]

64. Yeah right.....

:eyes:

[TahitiNut]

14. I just don't get the point here.

Kerry won Michigan. Kerry won Oakland County. Kerry won Wayne County. Macomb County is the 'home' of the Reagan Democrats ... and overwhelmed with evangelicals. Even with that, Bush got only 6,000 more votes than Kerry in that county ... and the state went for Kerry.

There's no way anyone could sanely claim that Bush 'won' in Michigan, Oakland County, or Wayne County.

If there's some kind of delusion that more votes for Bush in 2004 than in 2000 equates to some kind of 'win' then someone ought to examine how the campaigns spend money in states they feel are in their column. Further, population changes and migrations coupled with GOTV efforts are going to change raw numbers. Making claims about the impact of such changes in the net results of an election requires far more than some flood of context-free and methodology-light numbers.

Sheesh! Bush got 257,750 votes and Kerry got 600,047 votes in Wayne County! That more than 2::1 for Kerry. Who the hell would advise the Kerry campaign or the DNC to invest any MORE in Wayne County???

No... I'm NOT going to go wading through the Dali-esque mounds of poorly-structured and "quantity vs. quality" data dumps again. I've spent enough hours trying to make some kind of sense of it and it's beyond my patience. Much of my latter career was as a Research Scientist engaged in analysis of some fairly complex systems. I lived and breathed metrics ... but I cannot find the time to even got to the point of rationally critiquing something that just looks like a mess to me. This isn't to demean any individual or any effort to pursue this data ... but even with a math degree and decades of analytical experience, it's far too garbled and surreal for me to grasp in the hours I've spent looking at it. I 'm just not willing to chase those hours with more hours.

FWIW, Oakland County uses a variety of balloting technology ... but optical scan is used all around here (Royal Oak) and environs. It's not "punch card" here ... and I don't know where they might be used. Michigan has traditionally used (non-computerized) voting machines. Election equipment is selected at the local level in Michigan - not county-wide nor state-wide.

[bleever]

16. If I may,

the point goes beyond winning the most votes in the electoral college.

In order to overcome the lingering stigma of the 2000 selection, they were determined (I submit) to win a clear "mandate" by winning the popular vote in convincing fashion.

[emulatorloo]

17. Clearly they padded the popular vote -- TX and CA, thinking nobody would notice

I don't live in any of those counties, but it does confirm what I have long thought -- they padded the popular vote, figuring nobody would notice. Esp in states like TX that were going for Bush anyway and CA that was going for Kerry anyway,

[Melissa G]

18. TX would have been easy to do as Bush/Rove were recently in charge of the

State and running it by proxy anyway since they left for DC.

[L. Coyote]

22. would have ben??

[Melissa G]

39. LOL! yes L Coyote, you are right. It was easy to do but I just don't have the definitive

proof to make the assertion. And yes, I know it's up to them to prove it wasn't done.:hi: Thanks for all you do to shed light on the theft! :yourock:

[L. Coyote]

23. So, why not show how many more Kerry voters there were too?

[althecat]

28. Well maybe because we don't think Kerry stole the election....

Actually now you mention it. Didn't he lose?

However feel free to compile a matching table if you feel a need to provide balance.

Thing is though.... Kerry would be expected to have lots of large gains in urban/semi-urban counties. Bush OTOH should not be expected to do well in these areas - his vote increase if following the expected pattern ought to have been a result of lots of small gains in small counties.

[althecat]

29. Another interesting fact if you care to look...

There are approx 45 "large" counties listed above in which bush achieved a 30k vote increase or more. In only 12 of these counties did Kerry's increase in vote exceed bush's increase in proportional terms.

[SaveAmerica]

24. Isn't Wake Co. NC a blue, progressive area? I thought I'd read that somewhere?

ETA: I might be mistaken the area of Raleigh tends to be more progressive than other cities in NC but my google search is showing Wake Co. to be half and half.

[althecat]

27. Wake County - thats interesting....

NC	Wake    	169	51.5%	30,069	17.4%	-6.7%	1	 Optical 

This shows that bush's percentage fell in Wake even though his
vote increased by 17% which on the face of things is a very
good performance... i.e. Kerry's vote gain was even greater
than 17%. If indeed it is a bluish tinged county then it looks
like he narrowly lost the race to kerry in 2004 when he won it
in 2000. This story runs against the official narrative as
told by the exit poll.

[HowHasItComeToThis]

25. MILITARY INDUSTRIAL JOBS, OF COURSE

CORPORATIONS HAVE BOUGHT YOU FOLKS

[althecat]

30. These 50 counties represent 2.6 Million or 25% of bushes total vote increase across the nation

[althecat]

31. Number of votes gained by machine type (from the table above)

DRES 867188
Lever 434885
Optical Scans 856327
Punch 365593

& then there is Denton County texas where they use paper according to the table.

[althecat]

32. Counties sorted by the relative scale of the crushing victory over Kerry.

In other words these the places ranked in order of how well
bush did relative to kerry (sorted by the "bush Net"
column). Deductive reasoning would suggest that these are
places where the Bush/Rove machine was particularly busy and
where it achieved a relative victory over the democratic GOTV
campaign. Judge for yourselves..



				      Change	ChgPct	Bush		
ST	County	Precincts 	BUSH	BUSH	BUSH	Net	Incid	Method
NY	Brooklyn    	1888	24.80%	67235	42.90%	38.00%	63	 Lever
NJ	Ocean    	292	60.40%	41758	29.00%	36.20%	0	 DRE
NJ	Monmouth    	428	54.70%	42999	26.60%	25.60%	0	 Lever
NY	Nassau    	1070	46.70%	64523	23.10%	25.30%	2	 Lever
NY	Queens    	1470	28.00%	41325	26.40%	21.80%	23	 Lever
HI	Honolulu    	214	48.60%	42859	29.70%	21.30%	2	 Optical 
NY	Suffolk    	1006	48.80%	77671	25.70%	19.80%	0	 Lever
CA	Riverside    	1093	58.40%	49812	18.90%	18.70%	2	 DRE
NJ	Bergen    	554	47.80%	34462	19.30%	18.20%	4	 DRE
MO	Shannon    	12	64.30%	242143	-7.60%	15.70%	2	 Punch 
FL	Pasco    	132	54.50%	34616	33.50%	15.60%	0	 DRE
FL	Polk    	163	58.70%	33237	26.90%	14.40%	5	 Optical 
FL	Brevard    	177	57.90%	37653	24.60%	13.00%	4	 Optical 
FL	Broward    	618	34.80%	66376	27.20%	12.70%	56	 DRE
CA	LosAngeles    	4963	36.40%	142610	14.90%	10.60%	36	 Optical

FL	PalmBeach    	531	39.20%	58943	27.80%	10.10%	88	 DRE
WA	Pierce    	635	48.50%	39987	27.50%	8.90%	0	 Optical
AZ	Maricopa    	1004	57.20%	145697	27.00%	8.60%	32	 Optical 
NY	Wstchester    	948	40.70%	38923	25.40%	7.30%	6	 Lever
FL	Pinellas    	345	49.80%	40804	18.10%	7.10%	6	 DRE
FL	Seminole    	133	58.20%	32449	30.00%	6.90%	4	 Optical 
MI	Macomb    	406	50.40%	37063	18.40%	6.60%	1	 Lever
FL	Hillsboro    	320	53.20%	63846	26.10%	5.60%	21	 DRE
TX	Bexar    	626	55.30%	44226	17.00%	5.00%	6	 DRE
FL	Lee    	        150	60.10%	38273	26.50%	4.50%	0	 Optical 
IL	Will    	352	52.80%	33592	26.00%	4.40%	4	 
OK	Oklahoma    	273	64.20%	35629	20.40%	4.30%	0	 Optical 
CA	SanDiego    	3568	52.70%	46329	10.50%	3.70%	9	 Optical 
FL	Orange    	232	49.70%	57873	30.10%	2.70%	16	 Optical 
NV	Clark Co    	677	47.30%	82500	32.60%	2.70%	24	 DRE
PA	Allegeny    	1309	42.50%	33311	12.40%	2.60%	31	 Lever
GA	Cobb    	152	62.50%	32712	18.90%	2.50%	2	 DRE
PA	Bucks    	298	48.60%	31835	20.70%	2.50%	3	 Lever
TX	Tarrant    	535	62.80%	62451	17.90%	1.70%	2	 Optical 
MI	Oakland    	608	49.50%	42285	13.40%	1.30%	10	 Punch 
FL	Miami-Dade    	614	46.80%	69080	19.30%	0.20%	54	 DRE
UT	SaltLake    	688	60.50%	38415	18.40%	0.10%	0	 
IL	Cook    	5016	29.40%	50230	8.50%	-0.40%	84	 Punch 
GA	Gwinnett    	133	66.30%	38257	23.90%	-0.60%	2	 DRE
MI	Wayne    	1511	30.00%	37960	14.80%	-0.90%	59	 DRE
FL	Duval    	268	57.90%	67153	30.60%	-1.20%	12	 Optical 
PA	Montgmry    	405	44.20%	30938	18.00%	-2.30%	5	 DRE
TX	Harris    	935	55.10%	54874	9.50%	-2.60%	37	 DRE
TX	Denton    	126	70.40%	38403	27.30%	-4.80%	0	 Paper
NC	Wake    	169	51.50%	30069	17.40%	-6.70%	1	 Optical 
OH	Cuyahoga    	1506	33.20%	30935	14.30%	-6.80%	75	 Punch 
WA	King    	2707	34.10%	44058	15.20%	-7.20%	0	 Optical 
OH	Franklin    	760	45.90%	41170	17.60%	-11.30%	82	 DRE
TX	Collin    	127	71.70%	44854	25.90%	-11.30%	0	 DRE

[althecat]

33. Counties sorted by the magnitude of the bush GOTV efforts success

I.E. sorted by the percentage gain in the bush vote from 2000
to 2004. For example in Brooklyn NYC for every bush voter in
2000 bush's RoveBots managed to pull 1.4 bush voters into the
polling booth in 2004.

				      Change	ChgPct	Bush		
ST	County	Precincts 	BUSH	BUSH	BUSH	Net	Incid	Method

NY	Brooklyn    	1888	24.80%	67235	42.90%	38.00%	63	 Lever

FL	Pasco    	132	54.50%	34616	33.50%	15.60%	0	 DRE
NV	Clark Co    	677	47.30%	82500	32.60%	2.70%	24	 DRE
FL	Duval    	268	57.90%	67153	30.60%	-1.20%	12	 Optical 
FL	Orange    	232	49.70%	57873	30.10%	2.70%	16	 Optical 
FL	Seminole    	133	58.20%	32449	30.00%	6.90%	4	 Optical 

HI	Honolulu    	214	48.60%	42859	29.70%	21.30%	2	 Optical 
NJ	Ocean    	292	60.40%	41758	29.00%	36.20%	0	 DRE
FL	PalmBeach    	531	39.20%	58943	27.80%	10.10%	88	 DRE
WA	Pierce    	635	48.50%	39987	27.50%	8.90%	0	 Optical
TX	Denton    	126	70.40%	38403	27.30%	-4.80%	0	 Paper
FL	Broward    	618	34.80%	66376	27.20%	12.70%	56	 DRE
AZ	Maricopa    	1004	57.20%	145697	27.00%	8.60%	32	 Optical 
FL	Polk    	163	58.70%	33237	26.90%	14.40%	5	 Optical 
NJ	Monmouth    	428	54.70%	42999	26.60%	25.60%	0	 Lever
FL	Lee    	        150	60.10%	38273	26.50%	4.50%	0	 Optical 
NY	Queens    	1470	28.00%	41325	26.40%	21.80%	23	 Lever
FL	Hillsboro    	320	53.20%	63846	26.10%	5.60%	21	 DRE
IL	Will    	352	52.80%	33592	26.00%	4.40%	4	 
TX	Collin    	127	71.70%	44854	25.90%	-11.30%	0	 DRE
NY	Suffolk    	1006	48.80%	77671	25.70%	19.80%	0	 Lever
NY	Wstchester    	948	40.70%	38923	25.40%	7.30%	6	 Lever
FL	Brevard    	177	57.90%	37653	24.60%	13.00%	4	 Optical 
GA	Gwinnett    	133	66.30%	38257	23.90%	-0.60%	2	 DRE
NY	Nassau    	1070	46.70%	64523	23.10%	25.30%	2	 Lever
PA	Bucks    	298	48.60%	31835	20.70%	2.50%	3	 Lever
OK	Oklahoma    	273	64.20%	35629	20.40%	4.30%	0	 Optical 

NJ	Bergen    	554	47.80%	34462	19.30%	18.20%	4	 DRE
FL	Miami-Dade    	614	46.80%	69080	19.30%	0.20%	54	 DRE
CA	Riverside    	1093	58.40%	49812	18.90%	18.70%	2	 DRE
GA	Cobb    	152	62.50%	32712	18.90%	2.50%	2	 DRE
MI	Macomb    	406	50.40%	37063	18.40%	6.60%	1	 Lever
UT	SaltLake    	688	60.50%	38415	18.40%	0.10%	0	 
FL	Pinellas    	345	49.80%	40804	18.10%	7.10%	6	 DRE
PA	Montgmry    	405	44.20%	30938	18.00%	-2.30%	5	 DRE
TX	Tarrant    	535	62.80%	62451	17.90%	1.70%	2	 Optical 
OH	Franklin    	760	45.90%	41170	17.60%	-11.30%	82	 DRE
NC	Wake    	169	51.50%	30069	17.40%	-6.70%	1	 Optical 
TX	Bexar    	626	55.30%	44226	17.00%	5.00%	6	 DRE
WA	King    	2707	34.10%	44058	15.20%	-7.20%	0	 Optical 
CA	LosAngeles    	4963	36.40%	142610	14.90%	10.60%	36	 Optical

MI	Wayne    	1511	30.00%	37960	14.80%	-0.90%	59	 DRE
OH	Cuyahoga    	1506	33.20%	30935	14.30%	-6.80%	75	 Punch 
MI	Oakland    	608	49.50%	42285	13.40%	1.30%	10	 Punch 
PA	Allegeny    	1309	42.50%	33311	12.40%	2.60%	31	 Lever
CA	SanDiego    	3568	52.70%	46329	10.50%	3.70%	9	 Optical 

TX	Harris    	935	55.10%	54874	9.50%	-2.60%	37	 DRE
IL	Cook    	5016	29.40%	50230	8.50%	-0.40%	84	 Punch 

MO	Shannon    	12	64.30%	242143	-7.60%	15.70%	2	 Punch 

[icymist]

34. King and Pierce counties with 34% and 48% respectively?!

This is fierce Dem country. Gotta be something wrong with those numbers. Oh yeah, they fired the Federal attorney here. Something about not wanting to prosecute Dems during the election.

[althecat]

36. King & Pierce Washington - some questions....

This is seattle right.

WA King 2707 34.10% 44058 15.20% -7.20% 0 Optical

Democratic stronghold. Shows a 15% increase in its Bush vote - 44,058 new bush voters... This was more than balanced by a significantly greater increase in the Kerry vote from the look of things probably around 30% or more. Can you tell us more?

WA Pierce 635 48.50% 39987 27.50% 8.90% 0 Optical

Interesting. Bush's percentage of the vote increased markedly.... it must have been comparable to King in the previous election but turned on far more strongly to bush than King according to the final vote. A 27.5% increase in the bush vote is a spectacular result indeed for team rove. What would your impression be of the GOP GOTV campaign in this county?

[satya]

40. King County resident Dino Rossi (R) was running for governor in 2004.

Yes, KingCo includes Seattle, but it also includes rural areas, and the Eastside, where Rossi lives and where there are a lot of country club Republicans who support him. I still see freakin' Rossi bumper stickers around here. It also includes the 8th CD, where Dave Reichert (R) was re-elected to his 2nd term in 2004. And Boeing employs a lot of KingCo residents.

This is not to say that I think the vote counts are accurate; I believe the GOP stole the 2000 and 2004 elections (and probably others). And I suspect that vote-padding could account for Gov. Gregoire's near loss to Rossi. OTOH, there are other factors to consider too.

[althecat]

35. Sorted by the magnitude of the victory by either bush or kerry....

Sorted by the magnitude of the victory by either bush or
kerry....

COUNTIES WON BY KERRY IN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF KERRY VICTORY

				      Change	ChgPct	Bush		
ST	County	Precincts 	BUSH	BUSH	BUSH	Net	Incid	Method

TX	Collin    	127	71.70%	44854	25.90%	-11.30%	0	 DRE
TX	Denton    	126	70.40%	38403	27.30%	-4.80%	0	 Paper
GA	Gwinnett    	133	66.30%	38257	23.90%	-0.60%	2	 DRE
MO	Shannon    	12	64.30%	242143	-7.60%	15.70%	2	 Punch 
OK	Oklahoma    	273	64.20%	35629	20.40%	4.30%	0	 Optical 
TX	Tarrant    	535	62.80%	62451	17.90%	1.70%	2	 Optical 
GA	Cobb    	152	62.50%	32712	18.90%	2.50%	2	 DRE
UT	SaltLake    	688	60.50%	38415	18.40%	0.10%	0	 
NJ	Ocean    	292	60.40%	41758	29.00%	36.20%	0	 DRE
FL	Lee    	        150	60.10%	38273	26.50%	4.50%	0	 Optical 
FL	Polk    	163	58.70%	33237	26.90%	14.40%	5	 Optical 
CA	Riverside    	1093	58.40%	49812	18.90%	18.70%	2	 DRE
FL	Seminole    	133	58.20%	32449	30.00%	6.90%	4	 Optical 
FL	Duval    	268	57.90%	67153	30.60%	-1.20%	12	 Optical 
FL	Brevard    	177	57.90%	37653	24.60%	13.00%	4	 Optical 
AZ	Maricopa    	1004	57.20%	145697	27.00%	8.60%	32	 Optical 
TX	Bexar    	626	55.30%	44226	17.00%	5.00%	6	 DRE
TX	Harris    	935	55.10%	54874	9.50%	-2.60%	37	 DRE
NJ	Monmouth    	428	54.70%	42999	26.60%	25.60%	0	 Lever
FL	Pasco    	132	54.50%	34616	33.50%	15.60%	0	 DRE
FL	Hillsboro    	320	53.20%	63846	26.10%	5.60%	21	 DRE
IL	Will    	352	52.80%	33592	26.00%	4.40%	4	 
CA	SanDiego    	3568	52.70%	46329	10.50%	3.70%	9	 Optical 
NC	Wake    	169	51.50%	30069	17.40%	-6.70%	1	 Optical 
MI	Macomb    	406	50.40%	37063	18.40%	6.60%	1	 Lever
								
**********

COUNTIES WON BY KERRY IN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF KERRY VICTORY

				      Change	ChgPct	Bush		
ST	County	Precincts 	BUSH	BUSH	BUSH	Net	Incid	Method

NY	Brooklyn    	1888	24.80%	67235	42.90%	38.00%	63	 Lever
NY	Queens    	1470	28.00%	41325	26.40%	21.80%	23	 Lever
IL	Cook    	5016	29.40%	50230	8.50%	-0.40%	84	 Punch 
MI	Wayne    	1511	30.00%	37960	14.80%	-0.90%	59	 DRE
OH	Cuyahoga    	1506	33.20%	30935	14.30%	-6.80%	75	 Punch 
WA	King    	2707	34.10%	44058	15.20%	-7.20%	0	 Optical 
FL	Broward    	618	34.80%	66376	27.20%	12.70%	56	 DRE
CA	LosAngeles    	4963	36.40%	142610	14.90%	10.60%	36	 Optical

FL	PalmBeach    	531	39.20%	58943	27.80%	10.10%	88	 DRE
NY	Wstchester    	948	40.70%	38923	25.40%	7.30%	6	 Lever
PA	Allegeny    	1309	42.50%	33311	12.40%	2.60%	31	 Lever
PA	Montgmry    	405	44.20%	30938	18.00%	-2.30%	5	 DRE
OH	Franklin    	760	45.90%	41170	17.60%	-11.30%	82	 DRE
NY	Nassau    	1070	46.70%	64523	23.10%	25.30%	2	 Lever
FL	Miami-Dade    	614	46.80%	69080	19.30%	0.20%	54	 DRE
NV	Clark Co    	677	47.30%	82500	32.60%	2.70%	24	 DRE
NJ	Bergen    	554	47.80%	34462	19.30%	18.20%	4	 DRE
WA	Pierce    	635	48.50%	39987	27.50%	8.90%	0	 Optical
HI	Honolulu    	214	48.60%	42859	29.70%	21.30%	2	 Optical 
PA	Bucks    	298	48.60%	31835	20.70%	2.50%	3	 Lever
NY	Suffolk    	1006	48.80%	77671	25.70%	19.80%	0	 Lever
MI	Oakland    	608	49.50%	42285	13.40%	1.30%	10	 Punch 
FL	Orange    	232	49.70%	57873	30.10%	2.70%	16	 Optical 
FL	Pinellas    	345	49.80%	40804	18.10%	7.10%	6	 DRE
								

[althecat]

37. Some More TIA Urban Legend Comments...

MORE GREAT MATERIAL FROM TRUTHISALL...
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm


SEE ALSO....(a bit older mind)
http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=120&topic_id=3549


Regarding the 2004 Urban Legend:

I set up an Excel database of 2004 vote, incident and voting machine type data for 4603 counties and filtered for those in which a) Kerry won a majority and b) at least 200,000 voted. He won the 68 urban counties which met the criteria by 62-37%. Of course, as these were corrupted recorded votes, he actually did much better than that. The database includes the first 116 million of the total 122.3m recorded votes. Bush "led" by 3.5m votes and vote-switching was virtually complete; he already had his "mandate". With the vote switching turned off, Kerry won 55% of the remaining 6 million. The final Bush "margin" was cut to 3.0 million.

This is additional analysis of the Bush urban legend.
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm

Be sure to check out the Final NEP Smoking Gun and the DU "game" thread from August 2005. Two years after losing the "game", naysayers still chant the same old mantra: exit polls were not designed to check for fraud; Gore voters lied to the exit pollsters; exit polls are not pure random samples; non-responders were Bush voters; Bush won despite his 48% job approval; Gore voters defected to Bush.

It's been more than two years since the Final National Exit "Voted 2000" demographic was proved impossible. The exit pollsters used mathematically impossible weightings and implausible vote shares in order to force a match to the recorded vote count. Simple logic dictates that ALL other NEP demographics, including location-size, must also have been forced to match the count.

Nothing will ever convince the naysayers that the preliminary (good) and final (bogus) exit poll timelines are at minimum, powerful indicators of a stolen election. The extensive statistical analysis has been confirmed by the massive documented incidents of election fraud. But show them more evidence and it's still not enough; they want absolute "proof" that fraud cost Kerry the election. But that's their agenda.

They send you on a wild-goose chase in order to deplete your energy. Trying to use rational arguments with them is like trying to convince Alberto Gonzalez to quit. Or discussing evolution with a fundamentalist. Or convincing Bush that Iraq is a lost cause. Or getting an oil executive to admit that global climate change is due to carbon emissions. Or convincing the media to investigate election fraud. It's impossible.

They are indefatigable, tenacious and relentless. A logical analysis is anathema to them. They ignore common sense and historical context. They are masters at obfuscation and disinformation.

It has become obvious over the past two years from the tenacity, tone and sheer volume of their posts, that their agenda has been to suppress the truth. But the posts are permanently recorded. They will have to live with that fact. They can’t hide that evidence.

As a lifelong quantitative analyst, I have never seen anything quite like it. These are smart people making ridiculous arguments. They would be fired in a heartbeat if they used similar faith-based logic to solve real world analytical problems in technology, science and business. On the other hand, there is no need to quibble: Al Gore is absolutely right. There has been a pervasive assault on reason.

[RebelOne]

38. I don't live in Cobb County, Georgia, but I work there.

And it is an easy explanation why Bush did so well. It is a red county in a red state.

[althecat]

42. Even so 32,712 new bush votes a 18.9% increase is pretty spectacular...

Especially as Kerry's vote must have increased by a similar % over the same period.

[yewberry]

41. Bush did not win King County WA in either election.

According to the county site:

In 2000, Gore took King County with 474,700 votes (60.02%) vs Bush with 273,171 votes (34.4%).

In 2004, Kerry took King County with 580,378 votes (64.95%) vs Bush 301,043 votes (33.69%).

Bush gained 27,872 votes from 2000 to 2004. The Dem candidates gained 103,678 votes from 2000 to 2004.

The 2004 election had a higher turnout than 2000 (82.99% vs 74.75% of registered voters). Also, third-party candidates took less of the vote in 2004, so the votes were more concentrated.

[althecat]

43. Looks like King County was very hard fought..

Bush increased his vote by 44058 (15.20%) and still went backwards quite significantly. Odd then that Gregoire came so close to losing methinks.. but that is an old story.

[althecat]

44. Fresh Data To Review - Counties Where Bush 2004 vote gain > 20,000; >16% incr; net incr >2% (61)

Note: The data base does not categorize counties by
location-size:
Urban, Suburban and Rural

Data screen:
Counties where Bush's recorded vote increased by at least:
1) 20,000 over his 2000 recorded vote and
2) 16% over his 2000 recorded vote and
3) 2% greater than Kerry's increase over Gore 2000.

		Recordedvote(000)	     Chgfrom2000	%Change         Net
ST	County	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Bush	Incidents

ST	Tot/avg	9244	9062	46.7%	52.8%	1161	2226	15.4%	26.7%	11.3%	607

AZ	Maricop	404	540	42.8%	57.2%	74	146	18.4%	27.0%	8.6%	32	Optical
AZ	Pima	154	138	52.7%	47.3%	16	23	10.6%	16.3%	5.7%	8	Optical
CA	Placer	50	85	36.9%	63.1%	11	22	21.8%	25.8%	4.0%	0	Optical
CA	Riversi	188	263	41.6%	58.4%	0	50	0.2%	18.9%	18.7%	2	DRE
FL	Brevard	110	153	41.7%	57.9%	13	38	11.7%	24.6%	13.0%	4	Optical

FL	Broward	452	244	64.6%	34.8%	66	66	14.5%	27.2%	12.7%	56	DRE
FL	Clay	19	62	23.3%	76.4%	4	20	22.6%	32.6%	10.0%	0	Optical
FL	Escambi	48	93	33.9%	65.7%	7	20	15.1%	21.8%	6.7%	1	Optical
FL	Hillsbo	213	245	46.4%	53.2%	44	64	20.5%	26.1%	5.6%	21	DRE
FL	Lake	48	74	39.1%	60.3%	12	24	24.2%	32.8%	8.6%	3	DRE

FL	Lee	94	144	39.3%	60.1%	21	38	22.0%	26.5%	4.5%	0	Optical
FL	Manatee	61	81	42.8%	56.8%	12	23	19.7%	28.7%	9.0%	0	Optical
FL	Marion	57	81	41.1%	58.4%	13	26	22.0%	32.1%	10.2%	2	Optical
FL	Orange	193	192	50.0%	49.7%	53	58	27.4%	30.1%	2.7%	16	Optical
FL	PalmBea	328	212	60.6%	39.2%	58	59	17.7%	27.8%	10.1%	88	DRE

FL	Pasco	85	103	44.7%	54.5%	15	35	17.9%	33.5%	15.6%	0	DRE
FL	Pinell	225	226	49.7%	49.8%	25	41	11.0%	18.1%	7.1%	6	DRE
FL	Polk	86	124	40.9%	58.7%	11	33	12.5%	26.9%	14.4%	5	Optical
FL	Saraso	88	105	45.5%	53.9%	16	22	17.6%	20.6%	3.0%	2	DRE
FL	Semino	77	108	41.4%	58.2%	18	32	23.1%	30.0%	6.9%	4	Optical

FL	Volusia	115	112	50.6%	49.0%	18	29	15.6%	26.2%	10.5%	8	Optical
GA	Cobb	104	173	37.5%	62.5%	17	33	16.4%	18.9%	2.5%	2	DRE
HI	Honolu	152	144	51.4%	48.6%	13	43	8.5%	29.7%	21.3%	2	Optical
IL	Will	115	129	47.2%	52.8%	25	34	21.6%	26.0%	4.4%	4	
MD	AnArun	95	124	43.2%	56.3%	9	25	9.6%	20.1%	10.5%	0	DRE

MD	Baltimo	170	155	52.0%	47.5%	16	28	9.1%	18.1%	9.0%	0	DRE
MI	Macomb	196	201	49.0%	50.4%	23	37	11.8%	18.4%	6.6%	1	Lever
MN	Anoka	80	92	46.4%	53.1%	12	23	15.2%	24.6%	9.4%	2	Optical
MO	Jackson	181	130	58.3%	41.7%	21	25	11.5%	19.6%	8.1%	0	Punch
MO	St.Cha	67	96	80.8%	19.2%	13	24	19.5%	24.7%	5.2%	0	Optical

NE	Douglas	81	118	40.3%	59.0%	17	30	21.1%	25.0%	3.9%	0	
NV	ClarkCo	280	253	52.2%	47.3%	83	83	29.9%	32.6%	2.7%	24	DRE
NJ	Bergen	193	178	51.7%	47.8%	2	34	1.1%	19.3%	18.2%	4	DRE
NJ	Burling	104	90	53.3%	46.2%	9	22	8.6%	24.2%	15.7%	1	DRE
NJ	Middles	156	119	56.3%	43.1%	5	28	3.4%	23.4%	20.0%	2	DRE

NJ	Monmou	132	162	44.6%	54.7%	1	43	1.0%	26.6%	25.6%	0	Lever
NJ	Ocean	93	144	38.9%	60.4%	-7	42	-7.2%	29.0%	36.2%	0	DRE
NM	SanMigu	21	22	48.3%	51.2%	15	20	69.2%	90.1%	21.0%	1	DRE
NY	Brookl	468	157	74.3%	24.8%	23	67	5.0%	42.9%	38.0%	63	Lever
NY	Erie	231	171	56.2%	41.6%	13	28	5.7%	16.2%	10.5%	2	Lever

NY	Monroe	166	159	50.4%	48.1%	14	26	8.3%	16.6%	8.2%	0	Lever
NY	Nassau	312	279	52.3%	46.7%	-7	65	-2.2%	23.1%	25.3%	2	Lever
NY	Queens	398	157	71.2%	28.0%	18	41	4.6%	26.4%	21.8%	23	Lever
NY	StatenI	63	84	42.3%	56.9%	-6	24	-9.9%	28.8%	38.7%	0
NY	Suffolk	303	302	49.1%	48.8%	18	78	5.9%	25.7%	19.8%	0	Lever

NY	Wstches	218	153	57.9%	40.7%	40	39	18.1%	25.4%	7.3%	6	Lever
OH	Butler	54	107	33.7%	66.3%	10	23	17.6%	21.6%	4.0%	0	Punch
OK	Oklaho	97	175	35.8%	64.2%	16	36	16.1%	20.4%	4.3%	0	Optical
OK	Tulsa	90	163	35.6%	64.4%	9	29	9.5%	17.9%	8.4%	3	Optical
PA	Bucks	162	153	51.4%	48.6%	30	32	18.2%	20.7%	2.5%	3	Lever

PA	Philad	525	126	80.7%	19.3%	83	26	15.8%	21.1%	5.3%	196	DRE
PA	York	64	115	35.7%	64.3%	12	27	18.3%	23.7%	5.4%	0	Lever
TN	Davids	132	108	54.9%	44.7%	12	24	9.4%	22.3%	13.0%	1	DRE
TN	Knox	66	111	37.2%	62.4%	5	24	7.8%	21.8%	14.0%	0	DRE
TX	Bexar	210	260	44.7%	55.3%	25	44	12.0%	17.0%	5.0%	6	DRE

TX	Montgom	29	104	21.5%	78.5%	5	24	18.5%	22.8%	4.3%	0	Optical
UT	Davis	20	84	19.3%	79.8%	2	20	7.7%	23.9%	16.2%	0	
VA	BdfrdCi	9	22	29.2%	70.8%	8	21	88.1%	94.2%	6.1%	0	Lever
VA	VaBeach	71	104	40.5%	59.5%	8	20	11.9%	19.3%	7.5%	0	Lever
WA	Pierce	152	146	50.7%	48.5%	28	40	18.5%	27.5%	8.9%	0	Optical

WA	Spokane	84	107	43.5%	55.6%	15	26	17.8%	24.0%	6.2%	1	Optical

[althecat]

45. & 106 Counties with 100,000+ votes in 2004 and at least a 2% increase in Bush margin from 2000

106 Counties with 100,000+ votes in 2004 and
at least a 2% increase in Bush margin from 2000

(I.E. Large Counties where Bush did well...)

		            2000		     2004	Chg from 2000 Bush	
ST	County	Total	GORE	BUSH	Total	KERRY	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH
IncrMargin
Total		25122			28342		        1087	2712

AL	Jefferson271.8	47.8%	51.0%	291.6	45.3%	54.3%	2.3	20.0	5.9%	Optical
AL	Madison	112.0	43.0%	55.5%	130.4	40.4%	59.2%	4.5	15.1	6.3%	Optical
AL	Mobile	[phone]%	56.5%	156.3	40.8%	58.9%	5.1	13.8	4.0%	Optical
AZ	Maricopa742.4	44.4%	53.1%	943.7	42.8%	57.2%	74.4	145.7	5.7%	Optical
AZ	Pima	265.2	52.0%	43.7%	292.7	52.7%	47.3%	16.4	22.6	2.9%	Optical

CA	Fresno	190.9	43.7%	53.4%	206.2	41.7%	58.3%	2.6	18.4	6.9%	Optical
CA	Kern	163.1	36.6%	61.5%	175.7	32.5%	67.5%	-2.5	18.3	10.0%	Optical
CA	LosAngeles2,488	64.2%	32.6%	2625	63.6%	36.4%	72.0	142.6	4.3%	Optical
CA	Orange	827.5	40.9%	56.3%	756.0	39.7%	60.3%	-37.6	-10.7	5.0%	DRE
CA	Placer	105.4	36.7%	59.5%	134.1	36.9%	63.1%	10.8	21.8	3.4%	Optical

CA	Riverside411.5	45.6%	51.8%	451.0	41.6%	58.4%	0.3	49.8	10.4%	DRE
CA	Sacramento389.8	49.9%	45.9%	347.3	50.6%	49.4%	-18.9	-7.5	2.8%	Optical
CA	SanBernard419.9	48.0%	49.3%	401.7	43.7%	56.3%	-26.2	18.9	11.3%	DRE
CA	SanDiego789.2	46.6%	49.8%	834.0	47.3%	52.7%	27.1	46.3	2.1%	Optical
CA	SanJoaquin151.5	48.0%	49.5%	162.2	46.2%	53.8%	2.1	12.4	6.2%	Optical

CA	Stanislaus105.4	45.3%	52.1%	120.6	41.2%	58.8%	1.9	16.0	10.8%	Optical
CA	Ventura	227.9	48.3%	48.0%	212.4	48.7%	51.3%	-6.6	-0.5	2.9%	Punch
CO	Adams	105.8	51.1%	44.9%	128.3	50.7%	48.7%	11.0	15.0	4.2%	Optical
FL	Alachua	84.7	55.9%	40.3%	110.5	56.4%	43.1%	15.0	13.5	2.3%	Optical
FL	Brevard	217.0	44.9%	53.1%	264.2	41.7%	57.9%	12.8	37.7	7.9%	Optical

FL	Broward	571.0	67.7%	31.1%	699.9	64.6%	34.8%	65.8	66.4	6.8%	DRE
FL	Escambia115.7	35.4%	63.1%	142.2	33.9%	65.7%	7.3	20.4	4.0%	Optical
FL	Hillsboro357.8	47.4%	50.5%	460.0	46.4%	53.2%	43.9	63.8	3.7%	DRE
FL	Lake	88.0	41.5%	56.8%	123.3	39.1%	60.3%	11.6	24.4	6.0%	DRE
FL	Lee.	183.3	40.5%	57.9%	240.2	39.3%	60.1%	20.8	38.3	3.1%	Optical

FL	Manatee	109.6	44.9%	52.9%	143.2	42.8%	56.8%	12.1	23.3	6.0%	Optical
FL	Marion	101.6	44.0%	54.3%	139.2	41.1%	58.4%	12.6	26.1	6.9%	Optical
FL	PalmBeach422.7	63.8%	36.2%	541.2	60.6%	39.2%	58.0	58.9	6.2%	DRE
FL	Pasco	141.5	49.1%	48.5%	189.4	44.7%	54.5%	15.2	34.6	10.4%	DRE
FL	Pinellas395.5	50.7%	46.7%	453.4	49.7%	49.8%	24.7	40.8	4.1%	DRE

FL	Polk	167.6	44.9%	53.9%	210.3	40.9%	58.7%	10.8	33.2	8.8%	Optical
FL	Seminole136.8	43.3%	55.3%	185.6	41.4%	58.2%	17.8	32.4	4.7%	Optical
FL	Volusia	182.6	53.3%	45.1%	227.8	50.6%	49.0%	18.0	29.2	6.5%	Optical
HI	Honolulu253.9	55.0%	39.9%	296.6	51.4%	48.6%	12.9	42.9	12.3%	Optical
IL	Madison	110.3	53.6%	44.3%	122.5	51.6%	48.4%	4.2	10.4	6.0%	Punch

IL	St.Clair99.4	56.0%	42.4%	112.5	55.4%	44.6%	6.7	8.0	2.7%	Optical
IL	Will	189.7	47.7%	50.3%	244.5	47.2%	52.8%	25.0	33.6	2.9%	
IN	Lake	172.5	63.2%	36.8%	176.7	61.2%	38.8%	-0.9	5.1	4.0%	DRE
IN	St.Joseph94.5	50.2%	49.8%	107.9	48.8%	51.2%	5.2	8.2	2.8%	DRE
KS	Sedgwick161.0	38.9%	58.2%	168.1	36.5%	62.7%	-1.1	11.7	6.8%	DRE
	
LA	Caddo	95.1	50.0%	49.2%	106.2	48.7%	51.1%	4.2	7.5	3.2%	DRE
LA	EBtnRouge167.7	45.6%	53.1%	182.9	45.0%	54.7%	5.8	10.8	2.1%	DRE
LA	Jefferson177.7	39.6%	59.1%	190.6	37.7%	61.8%	1.5	12.7	4.5%	Lever
LA	StTammany83.1	27.3%	71.2%	100.2	24.6%	75.0%	1.9	15.9	6.5%	DRE
MD	AnArundl190.5	45.2%	52.1%	220.4	43.2%	56.3%	9.1	24.9	6.2%	DRE

MD	Baltimore290.1	53.3%	43.9%	327.4	52.0%	47.5%	15.5	28.1	4.9%	DRE
MD	Harford	86.7	39.4%	58.1%	104.8	35.2%	64.3%	2.8	17.0	10.4%	DRE
MI	Genesee	190.1	63.0%	35.1%	213.2	60.2%	39.4%	8.5	17.3	7.1%	Optical
MI	Macomb	342.9	50.3%	47.9%	399.0	49.0%	50.4%	23.1	37.1	3.8%	Lever
MI	Saginaw	93.4	54.4%	44.1%	102.5	53.5%	46.0%	4.1	6.0	2.8%	Paper

MN	Anoka	143.9	47.3%	48.1%	173.1	46.4%	53.1%	12.2	22.6	5.9%	Optical
MO	Greene	102.0	40.3%	58.0%	124.5	37.5%	62.5%	5.5	18.7	7.4%	Punch
MO	Jackson	269.3	59.5%	38.7%	310.6	58.3%	41.7%	20.8	25.5	4.2%	Punch
NE	Douglas	158.8	40.1%	55.8%	200.4	40.3%	59.0%	17.1	29.6	3.0%	
NE	Lancaster99.8	42.0%	52.3%	120.5	42.6%	56.6%	9.5	16.0	3.6%	

NJ	Bergen	343.6	55.5%	41.9%	373.0	51.7%	47.8%	2.2	34.5	9.7%	DRE
NJ	Burlington168.1	56.6%	40.6%	195.0	53.3%	46.2%	8.9	21.8	8.8%	DRE
NJ	Camden	185.5	64.7%	31.8%	207.7	62.5%	37.0%	9.9	18.0	7.4%	Lever
NJ	Essex	250.6	71.6%	26.2%	273.9	70.1%	29.5%	12.6	15.2	4.8%	Lever
NJ	Gloucester105.7	57.3%	39.7%	127.0	52.4%	47.1%	5.9	17.8	12.3%	DRE

NJ	Hudson	160.4	70.6%	26.7%	170.0	66.8%	32.7%	0.4	12.7	9.7%	DRE
NJ	Mercer	126.4	62.1%	34.6%	139.9	61.2%	38.2%	7.2	9.8	4.5%	DRE
NJ	Middlesex251.0	60.1%	36.5%	277.3	56.3%	43.1%	5.3	27.9	10.4%	DRE
NJ	Monmouth258.0	50.6%	46.0%	295.5	44.6%	54.7%	1.3	43.0	14.7%	Lever
NJ	Morris	204.9	42.8%	54.1%	218.4	41.4%	58.0%	2.7	15.9	5.4%	DRE

NJ	Ocean	208.5	47.6%	48.9%	238.0	38.9%	60.4%	-6.7	41.8	20.2%	DRE
NJ	Passaic	147.2	58.3%	39.3%	166.3	55.3%	44.2%	6.1	15.8	8.0%	DRE
NJ	Union	176.8	60.7%	36.7%	191.1	58.9%	40.6%	5.3	12.8	5.7%	DRE
NY	Albany	130.4	59.7%	34.0%	135.6	60.2%	37.8%	3.8	6.9	3.3%	Lever
NY	Bronx	279.0	86.0%	11.9%	317.6	82.7%	16.7%	22.8	19.7	8.0%	Lever

NY	Brooklyn556.9	79.9%	16.1%	630.3	74.3%	24.8%	23.3	67.2	14.4%	Lever
NY	Dutchess105.0	46.7%	47.1%	114.0	46.5%	51.9%	4.0	9.7	4.9%	Lever
NY	Erie	383.5	56.8%	37.4%	411.0	56.2%	41.6%	13.3	27.7	4.8%	Lever
NY	Monroe	300.4	50.8%	44.1%	330.4	50.4%	48.1%	13.9	26.3	4.4%	Lever
NY	Nassau	554.0	57.6%	38.7%	597.1	52.3%	46.7%	-6.7	64.5	13.3%	Lever

NY	Onondaga189.6	53.8%	40.9%	198.7	54.1%	44.1%	5.4	10.1	3.0%	Lever
NY	Orange	117.7	45.8%	49.6%	135.1	43.6%	55.0%	5.1	16.0	7.6%	Lever
NY	Queens	511.7	74.2%	22.5%	559.4	71.2%	28.0%	18.3	41.3	8.5%	Lever
NY	Rockland116.8	55.9%	40.2%	121.8	48.7%	49.8%	-6.0	13.7	16.8%	Lever
NY	StatenIsl133.1	51.8%	45.2%	148.4	42.3%	56.9%	-6.2	24.3	21.3%	

NY	Suffolk	536.3	53.2%	41.8%	618.3	49.1%	48.8%	18.0	77.7	11.2%	Lever
NY	Wstchester306.2	58.4%	37.4%	377.3	57.9%	40.7%	39.5	38.9	3.8%	Lever
OH	Butler	130.9	34.1%	63.9%	160.9	33.7%	66.3%	9.5	23.1	2.9%	Punch
OK	Oklahoma220.7	37.0%	63.0%	272.0	35.8%	64.2%	15.7	35.6	2.4%	Optical
OK	Tulsa	215.8	37.8%	62.2%	253.6	35.6%	64.4%	8.5	29.3	4.5%	Optical

OR	Marion	111.6	44.3%	51.5%	114.1	45.1%	54.9%	2.0	5.2	2.7%	
PA	Lackwana93.7	60.8%	37.0%	103.9	57.1%	42.9%	2.4	9.9	9.5%	Lever
PA	Luzerne	117.3	52.7%	44.4%	133.4	51.5%	48.5%	6.8	12.7	5.4%	Lever
PA	Nhampton102.5	51.3%	45.8%	124.6	50.5%	49.5%	10.3	14.7	4.5%	Lever
PA	Wstmrlnd154.1	46.4%	52.0%	175.8	43.8%	56.2%	5.5	18.7	6.8%	Lever

PA	York	142.8	36.4%	61.2%	178.2	35.7%	64.3%	11.6	27.2	3.8%	Lever
TN	Davidson203.7	58.9%	41.0%	241.0	54.9%	44.7%	12.4	24.1	7.6%	DRE
TN	Hamilton118.6	43.6%	56.2%	136.3	42.0%	57.6%	5.6	11.9	3.0%	Optical
TN	Knox	147.7	41.2%	58.6%	177.3	37.2%	62.4%	5.1	24.1	7.8%	DRE
TX	Bexar	410.4	45.1%	52.5%	470.1	44.7%	55.3%	25.2	44.2	3.1%	DRE

TX	ElPaso	144.2	58.1%	39.9%	167.9	56.5%	43.5%	11.1	15.5	5.2%	Optical
TX	Galveston92.6	43.2%	54.4%	105.2	41.7%	58.3%	3.9	10.9	5.3%	Optical
TX	Hidalgo	96.7	60.7%	38.4%	114.5	55.1%	44.9%	4.4	14.3	12.2%	Lever
TX	Montgomery105.7	22.0%	76.2%	132.9	21.5%	78.5%	5.3	23.8	2.8%	Optical
TX	Nueces	96.8	46.8%	51.5%	103.7	42.8%	57.2%	-0.9	9.5	9.7%	Optical

UT	Davis	87.6	21.5%	73.3%	105.8	19.3%	79.8%	1.6	20.2	8.7%	
UT	Utah	119.8	13.7%	81.7%	108.2	11.0%	87.9%	-4.5	-2.9	8.8%	
VA	VaBeach	148.3	42.0%	56.4%	174.4	40.5%	59.5%	8.4	20.1	4.5%	Lever
WA	Pierce	237.2	52.3%	44.5%	300.1	50.7%	48.5%	28.2	40.0	5.5%	Optical
WA	Spokane	156.6	44.2%	52.2%	193.4	43.5%	55.6%	15.0	25.8	4.1%	Optical
WI	Brown	106.7	46.0%	50.9%	122.7	44.7%	54.7%	5.8	12.9	5.1%	

[althecat]

47. A couple of weird results - redistricting? ..... Ocean County (NJ) San Bernard County (CA)

CA	SanBernard419.9	48.0%	49.3%	401.7	43.7%	56.3%	-26.2	18.9	11.3%	DRE

Kerry vote down 26% on Gore.... Bush vote up 20%

NJ       Ocean    208.5 47.6%   48.9%   238.0   38.9%   60.4% 
 -6.7    41.8    20.2%   DRE

Kerry vote down 7%.... Bush vote up 42%

[althecat]

49. Correction...... seems I misread the table... & link to useful resource

From TIA,

Hi althecat,
Please correct your DU post #47. In the latest data screen, I show numerical vote changes in thousands of votes NOT percentages.

CORRECTED VERSION FOLLOWS...

47. A couple of weird results - redistricting? .....

Kerry vote down 26,200 on Gore.... Bush vote up 18,900
Bush margin increased by 11.3%
11.3% = (56.3%-43.7%)-(49.3%-48.0%) = 12.6% - 1.3%

Change to:
Kerry vote down 6,700; Bush vote up 41,800
Bush margin increased by 20.2%

Link to enable readers to jump to the Urban Legend tables. They are aligned and easy to read.

http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#UrbanLegendCountyChange

[trashcanistanista]

46. OK , Placer Co., Calif,

Yes, this is probably correct. This is one of the reddest counties in No. Calif. Probably because we get a lot of people from So. Cal retiring here and from other red states and there is a huge influence of fundies scattered throughout the county. We are trying to change this for 2008 starting with our Congressional candidate Charlie Brown. This county is very large and partly rural, and is gaining in residency due to cheap housing and plenty of jobs. We need more dems to move here and those of you in safe blue districts, (I'm not proud), please help us! :hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. I can tell you bout San Diego

where whole sale disenfranchisement of voters has been going on for YEARS

I might add, if you are of certain color or national origin they will do all they can to ensure you cannot vote

Oh the tricks, gotten to the point I go to booth with passport in hand

[EFerrari]

50. There's no way Los Angeles re-elected Bush.

But, there is a large population of the usual voters who the Thuggery RIP OFF every time. :grr:

[althecat]

51. According to the returns LA County helped heaps.... 142,000 new bush voters

[EFerrari]

52. The only time my own vote was placed in jeopardy was there.

I was told by two poll workers I wasn't on the rolls and they clearly expected me to go away. Instead, I asked to see the rolls and my name was there. That was in 2000. :shrug:

[althecat]

53. 2004... the point at which America finally woke up from its 20th C. democratic slumber.

One of the extraordinary things about these stats is how much they show the urban turnout exploding in spite of all the caging, roll restriction, scrubbing and turnout reduction efforts of the rove bots. A large number of these larger counties show well over 20% turnout increases. 2004 may well end up being the election that history records as being the point at which America finally woke up from its 20th C. democratic slumber.

[EFerrari]

56. I believe that is true. Never had seen anything like the explosion

of involvement and activism in the run up to that election. The Green Party pretty much split into two over the issue of supporting Kerry and similar ripples went out all over. Had we lost the election, that would have been a shame.

The worse shame is for all of those people to be made to believe they didn't make a difference.

[althecat]

58. I always wondered whether this would happen ----> back in 2002/03

...when we first started talking about wholesale election fraud it occurred to me that one possible reaction to knowledge that their system had been subverted would be that the people would rise up collectively and take back democracy. Of course the nay-sayers said that if we criticised democracy it would turn people off more. I think 2004 answered that question. And 2008 will hopefully settle it once and for all:)

[EFerrari]

60. Iirc, that was still said ("you're going to discourage voters!")

even after 2004. But, as Joseph Heller said, something happened.

If civilians like me can mount even a half lucid argument, Al, we'll be okay in 2008. lol

[coco77]

55. I can tell you what they are doing now...

They are infiltrating the churches with rightwing preachers. I received a voice mail on my cell phone (the number I didn't give to anyone) telling me to come to a church for a speech about Islam and the pastor is the one I can't remember his name he held meetings with Falwell and they talk about the last days and the antichrist.

He is a short fat guy who wears glasses. I have heard some people who I would never have thought would go along with who are drinking the kool-aid. The pastors of these churches are now building mega churches and spouting the party line about Bush is a great leader.

[Avalux]

57. Bexar Co. Texas here -

this is a traditionally blue county. There are two reasons; DeLay's redistricting and Diebold touch-screens.

[althecat]

61. Not blue any more ..... 44,000 new bushites in your neighbourhood from the look of things.....

Hi sparosnare,

TX	Bexar    	626	55.3%	44,226	17.0%	5.0%	6	 DRE

17% increase in bush vote and a 5% increase in his margin. 

Tell us more about Bexar.... was there a big GOP GOTV effort
there?

[Avalux]

66. No there wasn't - and us Dems were encouraged by our efforts. That's what I'm saying....

...if you look at the gerrymandering done by GOP here, it's obvious they got away with a crime. And the touch screens - we've had major problems with those too. They weren't Diebold (sorry) - ES&S.

http://www.votersunite.org/info/content/mess-up_121404.asp

[njdemocrat106]

63. Ocean County, NJ here

Simple explanation: This county is owned by the GOP (the Dems haven't run this county since World War II). I see way too much W'04 and assorted right-wing crap on cars around here, and it makes me sick (just today, I saw "I'd rather go hunting with Dick Cheney than driving with Ted Kennedy" and "Another Clinton in the White House? Hill(sic) no!".

[althecat]

65. The ocean county GOP turnout/performance is still remarkable.

In 2000 Bush won the county by 3000 votes over Gore. Compare that to his 51,000 recorded margin over Kerry. Yet in 2004, the Dems had a fantastic GOTV... and Bush had a 48% approval rating? Bumper stickers notwithstanding it just doesn't make sense.

[althecat]

77. See post #74

[lonestarnot]

67. Maricopa County.

Full of richies and wannabe richies. SUV boat haul'n crooks that get to the lake (one lake) and can't afford gas that goes in the boat. Brain scortched from the heat after they move out here from Dakotas, Minnesota, and Michigan razorback. I also think they cheated. The poor population here are so oppressed that they could give a rats ass about their vote. The next meal and a cool place to hang out is their main concern. Look we've a Phil Gordan (dem ticket runner), Mayor of Phoenix backing McDrain. :shrug:

[althecat]

73. Thanks for the report lonestarnot - Maricopa is definitely one of the standouts 145k new bush voter

AZ	Maricopa    	1004	57.2%	145,697	27.0%	8.6%	32	 Optical 

145,000 new voters (27% increase) is a lot lot lot of new
voters.

Realistically it ought to have required the GOTV campaign to
end all GOTV campaigns plus some creative boundary changes.
Interesting that the county was actually won comprehensively
by Bush this time round. Whats the history there?

[CitizenLeft]

68. Cuyahoga County is Cleveland OH

Absolutely fraudulent.

I took part in the recount. We saw the register books. Election officials went to jail for rigging the recount, though I read they're going to get a new trial?

Cuyahoga County is the bluest county in the state. Even some affluent suburbs went for Kerry - that shocked me, we were told affluent white voters were Bush's for the taking. According to the election results, Bush GAINED votes in black communities. My guess is that that "gain" was actually 30,935 fewer Democratic voters, not 30,935 more Bush supporters. This happened because voter suppression lowered the number of Kerry votes all across the county. Punch card voting machines "broke down" in epidemic numbers on election day - yeah, right. It was almost just like Florida in 2000, accept during the recount, the election board got to choose which ballots we looked at - that's why they went to jail, for rigging it. Registered voters were challenged in the highest numbers in predominantly black precincts. And at the polls, poll workers allowed people to stand in line for hours before telling them they were voting in the wrong precinct, or told them erroroneously - or deliberately - to stand in the wrong line in the first place, forcing them to either stand in line again for hours, or give up. Thousands of these reports were documented by that election database that was set up before the election for collecting data (I forget the name of it now). This part of the fraud went unpunished and virtually unreported except for in John Conyers' report, by Greg Palast, and the Free Press. No way of knowing how much caging went on here, too, I guess that would be tied to the large number of challenges.

I still get upset even typing this.

[OnTheOtherHand]

69. actually, about 88K more Kerry voters

per Leip:

2000: Gore 359,913; Bush 192,099
2004: Kerry 448,503; Bush 221,600

No knowing how many votes it should have been, but it certainly didn't go down.

[CitizenLeft]

70. the black community came out to vote in droves

Not doubting at all those figures. You're right - we'll never know how many people had their votes thrown out, nor how many were turned away or gave up because they had to pick up their kids, or go back to work. Unknown.

[OnTheOtherHand]

71. I talked with an old friend

who mostly works in Franklin County campaigns. He was very skeptical of a lot of the Theories, but the lines in Cuyahoga as well as Franklin left him wondering what might have been.

As it was, it was an amazing effort.

[althecat]

72. And bush's vote went up 31k votes or 14%

[althecat]

74. Channelling TIA... ----> WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN NEW JERSEY

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN NEW JERSEY?

In 2000, Gore won NJ by 56-41%.
Gore won the final 100,000 recorded votes by 61-38%.
(not included in the County Data)

In 2004, Kerry won NJ by 53-46%.
Kerry won the final 200,000 recorded votes by 57-42%.
(not included in the County Data)

Notice a pattern here?

According to the National Exit Poll,
1) only 17% of Nader voters defected to Bush.
2) Kerry won new voters (those who did not vote in 2000) by 57-41%.
But Kerry probably did better than 57% in NJ, a strong Democratic state.
3) Kerry won 10% of Bush 2000 voters, Bush 8% of Gore voters.

Conservatively assuming an EQUAL defection of Gore and Bush NJ voters,
Kerry should have won by 58-41%, a 17% margin compared to the recorded 7%
margin.

So where did Bush find 386,000 new voters in NJ?


According to the NJ Exit Poll (based on the pristine WPE, before it was
contaminated by matching to the recorded vote) Kerry won by 17%.
Kerry 57.8%; Bush 41.4%; Other 0.8%

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN OCEAN COUNTY?
In 2000, Bush won by 3,000 votes: 102,000-99,000
In 2004, Bush won by 51,000 votes: 144,000-93,000, a 20.2% margin increase.

So where did Bush find 42,000 new votes in Ocean County?
Ocean County used TOUCH-SCREENS.

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN MONMOUTH COUNTY?
In 2000, Kerry won by 11,000 votes: 130,000-119,000
In 2004, Bush won by 30,000 votes: 162,000-132,000, a 14.7% margin
increase.

So where did Bush find 43,000 new votes in Monmouth County?
Monmouth County used LEVERS.

[althecat]

75. New Jersey Table

New Jersey  
(in thousands of votes)	
			2000			      2004			         Chg-2000  Chg Margin
County......Prct
			GORE	BUSH	GORE	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	BUSH
Recorded....6126	1789	1284	56.5%	40.5%	1911	1670	60.3%	52.7%	122	386	8.3%
DATABASE....6126	1729	1248	56.3%	40.6%	1799	1587	52.8%	46.6%	70	340	9.5%
Diff........0     	60	36	60.6%	36.8%	112	83	57.4%	42.4%			
												
DATABASE COUNTIES BY VOTING METHOD
DRE........	4487	1234	941	55.0%	42.0%	1282	1189	51.6%	47.9%			
LEVER......	1558	478	285	60.8%	36.2%	500	369	57.2%	42.3%			
OPTICAL.........81	16	22	40.8%	54.7%	18	29	37.5%	61.5%			

* Big Bush net increase from 2000
												
DRE												
Atlantic 	157	50	34	58.3%	39.2%	52	46	52.8%	46.7%	2	13	13.0%
Bergen* 	554	191	144	55.5%	41.9%	193	178	51.7%	47.8%	2	34	9.7%
Burlington 	349	95	68	56.6%	40.6%	104	90	53.3%	46.2%	9	22	8.8%
Gloucester 	218	61	42	57.3%	39.7%	66	60	52.4%	47.1%	6	18	12.3%
Hudson 		425	113	43	70.6%	26.7%	114	56	66.8%	32.7%	0	13	9.7%

Hunterdon 	107	21	32	38.1%	57.5%	26	39	39.2%	60.1%	4	7	1.6%
Mercer 		289	78	44	62.1%	34.6%	86	53	61.2%	38.2%	7	10	4.5%
Middlesex*
	576	151	91	60.1%	36.5%	156	119	56.3%	43.1%	5	28	10.4%
Morris 		375	88	111	42.8%	54.1%	90	127	41.4%	58.0%	3	16	5.4%
Ocean* 		292	99	102	47.6%	48.9%	93	144	38.9%	60.4%	-7	42	20.2%

Passaic 	279	86	58	58.3%	39.3%	92	74	55.3%	44.2%	6	16	8.0%
Salem 		73	17	15	51.8%	45.5%	14	16	46.3%	53.1%	-4	1	13.0%
Somerset 	256	56	59	46.9%	49.9%	62	68	47.4%	52.0%	6	8	1.6%
Sussex 		100	21	33	37.4%	58.4%	22	42	34.4%	64.9%	1	9	9.6%
Union 		437	107	65	60.7%	36.7%	113	78	58.9%	40.6%	5	13	5.7%
												
LEVER												
Camden 		326	120	59	64.7%	31.8%	130	77	62.5%	37.0%	10	18	7.4%
Cape May 	124	22	23	47.2%	50.1%	20	26	42.5%	57.0%	-2	3	11.6%
Cumberland 	93	26	18	58.1%	39.8%	26	23	53.1%	46.6%	0	5	11.8%
Essex 		587	179	66	71.6%	26.2%	192	81	70.1%	29.5%	13	15	4.8%
Monmouth*
	428	130	119	50.6%	46.0%	132	162	44.6%	54.7%	1	43	14.7%

OPTICAL												
Warren 		81	16	22	40.8%	54.7%	18	29	37.5%	61.5%	1	7	10.2%

[althecat]

76. Run Your Own Statistical Analysis - TIA Releases His County Database

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/CountyVoteDatabase.htm
The 2000/2004 Presidential County Vote Database
Updated 8/26/07 by TruthIsAll

This workbook is a database of recorded votes by county for the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. It is designed to facilitate analysis of county vote changes between the two elections.

Click here to link to the Excel database:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/CountyVoteDatabase.htm

DATA FILTERING
The database can be filtered (searched) by criteria applied to various combinations of data items, including:
State,County,Vote share,Vote margin, Change in vote margin, Voting method

THE DATA FILTER COMMAND
The user should be familiar with Excel Data Filtering.
Click on the down-arrow adjacent to the column heading to reveal a list of criteria options.

EXAMPLES
To filter for all California counties, click on ST (state).
Select CA.

To filter counties with 50,000+ recorded votes in 2004:
Click 2004 Total.
Select Custom.
Choose the filter method: Show All Rows where Total is greater than...
Enter 50 (votes in thousands)

The data filter is removed by selecting: Data Filter Show All
PRE-SET VOTING METHOD AND STATE FILTERS
A series of data filters by Voting method have been saved in separate worksheets for further data analysis.
Data filters for CA, NY, OH, NJ, FL have also been saved as separate worksheets.

INCOMPLETE DATA
Note that the database does not include the FINAL recorded vote.
The INITIAL 101.7m of 104.3m votes are included for 2000.
The INITIAL 116.7m of 122.3m votes are included for 2004.

SIX STATE COUNTY VOTES (AND DC) ARE NOT INCLUDED
County vote totals for six states are not included as they report by district: RI, AK, ME, NH, DC, MA, VT
However, TOTAL recorded votes for the states ARE included.
The states account for approximately 5 million votes and are included in the INITIAL totals.

[lonestarnot]

78. Right on TIA!

:toast: to TIA!