Statistics Show Downside Of Surge (2006/2007 Violence: "Up, Up..." Infrastructure: "Down, Down...")

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http://thinkprogress.org/2007/08/24/statistics-show-the-downside-of-the-surge

Statistics show the downside of the ’surge.’

In an effort to figure out whether the “surge” is working, the Washington Monthly’s Kevin Drum put together charts comparing violence and infrastructure trends in Iraq for June/July 2006 and June/July 2007. Using data from the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index, Drum concludes that “the news sure doesn’t look very good.” View his charts here:

Political Animal
By Kevin Drum

August 23, 2007
THE SURGE....Is the surge working? That is, even if you ignore the lack of political progress, are we even making tactical progress? Since violence in Iraq tends to be seasonal, the only reasonable comparison is one between summer 2006 and summer 2007, so I went to the latest Brookings Iraq Index to check out the most recent numbers.

No figures are available for August, and the surge wasn't completely up and running until June, so the best comparison is between June/July 2006 and June/July 2007. I'm not pretending this is conclusive or anything, but the news sure doesn't look very good. The two tables below tell the story.

Violence Metrics
June/July 2006
June/July 2007

Change

Iraqi Military and Police Killed
349
429
Up 23%

Multiple Fatality Bombings
110
82
Down 25%

# Killed in Mult. Fatality Bombings
885
1,053
Up 19%

Iraqi Civilians Killed
(All violent causes)
6,739
5,300
Hard to say1

U.S. Troop Fatalities
104
187
Up 80%

U.S. Troops Wounded
983
1,423
Up 45%

Size of Insurgency
20,000+
~70,0002
Up ~250%

Attacks on Oil and Gas Pipelines
8
143
Up 75%

1Methodology changed dramatically between 2006 and 2007, so numbers are highly suspect.
2Number is for March 2007.
3Numbers are for June only. No July numbers are available.

Infrastructure Metrics
June/July 2006
June/July 2007

Change

Diesel Fuel Available
26.7 Ml
20.7 Ml
Down 22%

Kerosene Available
7.08 Ml
6.3 Ml
Down 11%

Gasoline Available
29.4 Ml
22.2 Ml
Down 24%

LPG Available
4,936 tons
4,932 tons
Down 0.1%

Electricity Generated
8,800 Mwatts
8,420 Mwatts
Down 4%

Hours Electricity Per Day
11.7
10.14
Down ~14%

4 No numbers available for June/July. Figure is extrapolated from May and August numbers.

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