Front-loaded Primaries & 3 Strong Contenders Could Lead to a 'Brokered Democratic Convention'

[Blackhatjack]

The conditions for a 'perfect storm' continue to converge for Democrats as we head into the home stretch of a race which will be run on a 'still to be determined track.'

THere is every reason to believe that this race for the Democratic nomination will be 'unlike' any we have experienced in the last 2 generations.

Consider the following:

The top 3 candidates have raised sufficient campaign cash to make long term campaign runs all the way to the Democratic Convention.

Democratic voters have had 7 years as spectators of corporate interests in power, and they want the Democratic nominee to change the status quo. This issue has the potential to flatten support for the candidates who have taken large corporate contributions and support.

Front-loading the primaries will likely 'split' the votes roughly along present polling lines, meaning no candidate can emerge with the nomination well within their grasp after Super Tuesday.

With the nomination still up for grabs post Super Tuesday, Democrats may turn to Gore as yet another viable alternative in the event of a brokered convention.

Post Super Tuesday primaries might shore up one or more candidates heading to the convention but would not likely be decisive.

Given the unmistakable mood of the country, the longer Democrats delay in forcing the WH to begin deploying our troops out of Iraq, the more likely it is that 'an outsider/populist' will strengthen their support heading into the convention.

And don't forget that Democrats at a Democratic Convention will be looking at which candidates have the ability to garner votes from the independents and undecideds and unaffliated voters in the general election. This means their focus will be on 'who can win in the general election' more than which candidate appeals most to the Democratic base.

This could end up being the election year in which a Democratic Convention could be called upon to choose its nomination without a clear mandate from the primaries. IF this scenario does indeed play out, be prepared for a very public fight within the party to grab the nomination and win back the White House.

For purposes of full disclosure, I support John Edwards.

[Debi]

1. Then this is the year to be active - attend your party's delegate selection process

become a delegat to the county/state/national convention and PARTICIPATE! I agree with what Howard Dean has said so many times - just voting is not enough.

[Blackhatjack]

3. Yep, this is the new golden age to be an activist..not just a follower...n/t

[Debi]

5. Well, I'll be at caucus and do all in my power to become a delegate

I hope many will try to knock me out of my seat (in the end we are a stronger party because of competition).

[Zensea]

2. Good

I'm all for a real convention instead of a rubber stamp of a foregone conclusion.

[Selatius]

4. Of the top three, I would support John Edwards as well.

Ideally, my vote would go to Dennis Kucinich. He's representative of my kind of philosophy on economic and social issues, but if he were eliminated from serious contention, then I support Edwards as the back up, since he has been running a populist campaign on poverty in America.

[Debi]

6. Remember that Kucinich remained in the race until the end last cycle

He and Edwards brokered a deal in Iowa where non-viable delegates from one campaign could join the other and ensure delegates that support that candidate go to convention. Kucinich's ideas continued through to the national convention.

[TwilightGardener]

7. I think a brokered convention is more likely on the R side, myself.

[Blackhatjack]

9. Watching Repubs implode is going to be interesting ... Not one has a lock on their nomination

Circumstances could change so drastically that a Hagel or Bloomberg could jump in.

Certainly none of the announced crew running today will win the general election, and I doubt they can win their own party's nomination.

[TwilightGardener]

11. Agree--everyone (R and D) senses a lack of quality in the Repub recruits--

they're all weak, and I bet the R primary election results will be piecemeal and regional--will be interesting to see just what major flaws the R voters will eventually be willing to swallow to come up with their nominee. Doesn't bode well for them. I'm not a fan of Hillary, but she's a sharp, strong candidate, and that's what matters.

[Blackhatjack]

8. IMHO there are three very plausible scenarios as to how this plays out...

Hillary's best chance of garnering the Dem Nomination is to secure it 'early' before the Convention is held. She has led the polling, and to go to the Convention without the nomination 'locked up' puts her in a weak position to win over the needed votes at the Convention.

Obama's best chance is for Hillary's support to 'flatten' during the early front-loaded primaries and Obama's support to pick up those Hillary supporters 'falling away' from Clinton. If Clinton is unable to gather that needed delegates committed to her to grab the nomination, public perception could be that Obama is gaining momentum heading into the Convention.

Edwards' best chance depends on Clinton and Obama holding their relative strength as between each other, and Edwards building support with a populist and progressive campaign as the war and the economy turn darker and weigh on the voters' mind. Edwards has the opportunity to wage a campaign of 'change' that will stand out as there is no clear choice for Clinton and Obama. With an Iowa win Edwards will be in the race to the convention, and Edwards will be viewed as best able to win the general election with higher favorability numbers and head to head polling against Repub candidates.

OF course the wild card is Al Gore, and who he would draw votes from if he enters the election before the primaries. If Gore emerges only at the Convention, he could be the brokered choice but by that late date the party unity might be broken by such a choice.

[madfloridian]

10. Yep, Al Gore is still relevant.

.

[Blackhatjack]

12. If Dems have a brokered Convention it will be because we have a wealth of good candidates

...unlike the situation for Repubs.