There will be NO attack on Iran unless we notice all personnel being evacuated from the Green Zone

[NNN0LHI]

That will have to be accomplished before any bombing starts.

Because there will be no Green Zone if Bush attacks Iran.

Don

[lazer47]

1. That is the smartest assumption that I have seen,, puts all that

other speculation in the ditch,,, good post,,,

[Blashyrkh]

48. Since when has this administration shown any interest in the welfare of ANYONE?

Let alone US troops. Furthermore, the new US Embassy Mini-Mall will takeover as central command, if it hasn't already. What is so important about the Green Zone?

[lazer47]

49. They spent 600,000,000 to build that white elephant

it is where all of the elite spend their time, they would have to evacuate it before it was bombed,
B*** don't give a damn about anybody your right, but he sure as hell won't let Haliburton and Blackwater big shots get bombed out.

[Amonester]

57. Why? herrs bu$che/chainy will just rob the taxpayers of another...

$600,000,000.00 to build a brand new one.

And, the breaking news is: nobody will raise an exception (i.e. nobody will do anything EFFECTIVE against them).

[bananarepublican]

53. The greater the U.S. death toll the easier to whip up support for...

... continuing the hostilities against Iran.

I'd be most worried about a Bush attack during a Dixie Chick concert within the green zone!!!

[Fridays Child]

2. That's probably a very accurate statement.

[panader0]

3. K&R

[panader0]

4. K&R

[Warpy]

5. Do you honestly think they've thought that far ahead?

I don't. I think they're listening to Israel and those Armageddon crazed preachers and haven't considered anything beyond keeping their lunatic base in the fold.

[leftchick]

14. exactly, and here is another example.....

"But when you liason with administration officials who don’t know that Iranians don’t speak Arabic and have no idea what Iranians live like, then you start having second thoughts about whether these Administration officials are even competent."


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/9/1/183018/1527

There is no reason to expect them to consider any ramifications from their actions.

[pansypoo53219]

21. indeed.

so far the bushevics haven't shown themselves to be that forward thinking.

remember, this is the 'belief' crowd.

[tbyg52]

23. I agree. You can't assume BushCo is rational.

That's the problem the Democrats in Congress are having right now.

[superkia]

41. The problem is most of them share the Bush agenda. It's all about that dollar!

[tbyg52]

54. I stand corrected. nt

[Joanne98]

6. Are there no bomb shelters in the Green zone?

[TomInTib]

9. It wouldn't matter. Iran has the capability to level the place.

Anyone in a shelter would, at some point, have to leave the shelter.

They would then be massacred by Iraqis.

[RaleighNCDUer]

32. I don't think they do, actually.

Baghdad is a good distance from Iran, and while Iranian missiles can certainly target the city I doubt they are sophisticated enough to effective target the Green Zone specifically. The biggest danger is a hundred thousand Iranian pouring over the border, but it would take a couple days, at least, for them to reach Bagdhad, which would allow time to evacuate, either by road to the airport, or by helicopter. Of course, the important people would already be gone.

[TomInTib]

36. I don't think we know what they have.

The Chinese have what it takes and could be transporting anything they desire - we are powerless to intervene. Keep in mind the fact that the US economy is basically Chinese property.

I believe it would take a lot longer than a couple of days to evacuate. The risks presented by a rapid, large-scale evac are untenable. There is just no way we could bundle a dense-pack helo evac without utter carnage and the road to the airport would be destroyed overnight.

The only reason the Brits aren't out by now is because they cannot figure out a strategy. They are really screwed down south.

[kenny blankenship]

37. The Iranian Shahab-3 missile has a 30 meter Circular Error Probable accuracy

and carries up to a 990kg warhead. They can hit the Green Zone with it. I don't know how many of those they have though. Information from Wikipedia

Murder Monkey, in keeping with his habit of always seeing the bright side of mass murder and plotting rosy scenarios, could be laying plans for first strike which assume that Iran will be able to fire off a few of these missiles in retaliation at the Green Zone, and at our large bases, but that it will only be a few since we will be able to target their launch sites and take them out before our losses reach significant levels.

It's always when aggressive attackers make an assumption that their ingenious warplans will prevent their victims from from striking back that things go really wrong. Iraq was supposed to be a cakewalk. The Von Schlieffen Plan was supposed to crush the French defense beyond the point of recovery within 30 days through an unprecedented speed of maneuver, allowing the main German force to then shift east before Russia could mobilize. It ended in four years of trench warfare on two simultaneous fronts and defeat for Germany--the near total collapse of European civilization and by far the worst slaughter the world had ever seen.

[SaveAmerica]

45. And what about the new embassy, who knows what kind of shelters are there

[IDemo]

7. That would be assuming they care about the welfare of Green Zoners

Any attacks within Iraq, Green Zone or otherwise, would likely be welcomed as further excuse for escalation.

[jamesinca]

10. My thoughts exactly

and the more that die, the more they will say it is justified!! I almost think the opposite is true, look for a build up or concentration of personnel in the Green Zone before an attack.

On second thought, look for changes in the Green Zone as the signal.

[librechik]

18. they can put everyone in their fortresslike embassy

and have room left over for the servants and champagne.

[librechik]

13. I'm sure the Most Important People will be evacuated secretly first

and we won't even know until long after. The rest of the folks on the ground are on their own in the Green Zone--just like we are here.

[RaleighNCDUer]

28. Exactly.

The day we see the top 20 people all scheduled for meetings in Dubai, THAT's the day to worry.

[Raksha]

52. I think you nailed it! n/t

[Individualist]

19. Precisely!

The cabal that let thousands die on 9/11 and many more thousands since the start of the Iraq invasion would have no qualms about knowing lives would be lost in the Green Zone.

[Junkdrawer]

8. Yep. Operation "Rattle Iran's Cage to Get a Pretext" is in full swing...

They've never bit before, I doubt they'll bite this time.

Now, *somebody* may do a false-flag attack to make it seem they bit... :scared:

[TomInTib]

11. Great point, Don.

Now, why didn't I think of that?

KnR fer shure.

[ldf]

12. unless they are willing to sacrifice the green zone

in order to, hopefully, get the american people pissed off on THEIR behalf...

do you think they are that evil?

i do. they sacrificed the wtc.

the problem is it could go either way.

americans could go "my country, right or wrong"...

or they could take their anger out on those who caused it, the bush administration.

unfortunately i don't have a lot of faith in the american people.

besides, watching the war on my new 60 inch sony projection (ok, it's not plasma or lcd, but as long as you are sitting in EXACTLY the right place, just as good) teevee, could be very cool. i do hope it's high definition! it's probably as good as macy's 4th of july fireworks!

in between american idol, lost and design star.

americans do have their priorities....

[L. Coyote]

15. The Navy will need to seek safer waters too. They are sitting ducks

and do not have a naval enemy. That would change too.

The US cannot attack Iran because the consequences would cripple the US military.
The purported Iran attack is a real distraction from the failures in Iraq!

[kenny blankenship]

31. The Navy will be given a large share of the task of taking out Iran's coastal defenses

In the event of hostilities Iran would shut down the Strait of Hormuz with their antishipping missiles. US Navy aircraft and guided missile destroyers will probably be tasked with destroying the coastal missile sites. If you count coastal batteries vs. ships as naval engagement, it could be the biggest naval engagement since WWII, even though Iran has no navy to speak of. The Navy will be on the front line this time, they won't be seeking safer water unless a lot of sailors have already been killed.

[MilesColtrane]

16. That would be the sane, competent thing to do in the event of preemptive strike on Iran.

That's why I don't expect we'll see that course of action.

[valerief]

17. Do they care if they have a Green Zone and soldiers to go with it?

They have Blackwater instead, don't they? And prisons full of people they could force into soldiers.

[NNN0LHI]

20. I ain't talking about soldiers. Diplomats and paper pushers

What do you think the families of those folks would say if Bush left them there to die?

Don

[northernsoul]

26. Since when have bereaved families dissuaded this regime

for doing anything foolhardy? I'm afraid that you are underestimating the depths of this regime's psychopathology.

[RaleighNCDUer]

27. What would they say?

Rememer the Alamo!
Remember the Maine!
Remember Pearl Harbor!
Remember 9/11!
Remember the Green Zone!

[NNN0LHI]

29. No they would say to Bush why did you allow our family members to be blown up to smithereens asshole

That would make more sense.

Don

[Yael]

22. Since when did our government give one whit about the safety of our troops?

When they were spending $79 for monogrammed KBR towels yet shunning $79 helmet protectors to protect against IEDs?

Perhaps when it was using cronies to lead "shock and awe" without even scratching out a game plan into the dirt with a stick?

Maybe the determination that Kevlar was more valuable than gold, and therefore not an option?

Sorry -- I disagree. If we attack (God forbid!) the troops in the Green Zone will be right where they are today. Move one of them and you give up the element of "surprise".

*sigh*

[stillcool]

24. A couple of interesting articles...

I stumbled upon regarding Iran. Just to add a little bit to my confusion..

In fact, the German newspaper Der Spiegel reported in December 2005 that Goss had told the Turkish government it would be “informed of any possible air strikes against Iran a few hours before they happened” and that Turkey had been given a "green light" to attack camps of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Iran “on the day in question.
http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/intervention/iran/general/2006/0218ww3.htm

Posted : Sun, 02 Sep 2007 02:11:04 GMT
Ankara - On Iraq's northern border, Turkey and Iran have a common enemy in their sights. The armies of both countries are engaged in conflict with around 7,000 Kurdish militants who, tolerated by the government of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region, are entrenched in the mountainous frontier region.
The militants belong to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), outlawed in Turkey, and the Party for Freedom and Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) from Iran.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iranian artillery fire targeting suspected PJAK positions in the provinces of Sulaymanyah and Arbil is heard almost on a daily basis. Yet on the political front, the conflict is little heard of. Few seem to be troubled by this border war, save for the residents of Kurdish villages who have been forced to flee their homes.
In contrast to the ongoing car bombing campaign targeting markets, bridges and barracks in the Iraqi capital, the violence in the north seems to be little more than a sideshow to the main conflict for the politicians in the capital.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Even in Washington, where any interference by Iran in Iraqi affairs normally results in accusations and warnings from the Bush administration, any opposition to the Iranian attacks on the border region remains firmly behind closed doors.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although the Turkish army has massed 10,000 troops along the Iraqi frontier and readied for a major offensive, it has so far engaged only in minor missions. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears committed to a policy of restraint.
Copyright, respective author or news agency

[northernsoul]

25. Unless a profound attack on the Green Zone is

the nominal causus belli. Cheney knows as well as anyone that you've got to break a few eggs in order to make an omlette. My guess is that they may discretely exfiltrate a few key insiders, and the rest of the people in Green Zone are going to be sacrificed to the gods of imperial war.

I hope you're right, but I think we've learned not to bank on this administration's regard for American lives.

[EFerrari]

30. That's a really good point, Don.

Watching this come down is like watching the replay of a terrible trainwreck. We're all going to need treatment for PTSD after these bastards are out of office. :(

[Warren Stupidity]

33. nonsense.

The green zone is fortified and would survive an Iranian missile attack (a conventional scud-class missile attack).

[billyoc]

40. It was built by slaves tying rebar in bare feet.

I doubt it could survive a tropical depression. :eyes:

[Warren Stupidity]

42. Sand-bagged concrete bunkers ain't rocket science.

But the point is that Iran basically has no offensive capability against our deployed military forces in the region. Iran can lob a bunch of scud-class missiles at the green zone that are a) not likey to hit the green zone, b) not likely to do a whole lot of damage where ever they manage to land.

Our war with Iran will be a three day magnificent success followed by ten additional years to total hell on top of the Iraqi hell we have put ourselves into. We will crush and destroy the military assets of Iran. Heck we might even seriously damage their nuclear facilities. Then what? Once again there will not be, as there simply can't be, a realistic stage two. We will blow the crap out of their shit and then wait for them to retaliate, which they will do, on their own terms, as best they can.

[wildbilln864]

34. Assuming they care about trying to spare their lives!

What if there's a surprise attack? :shrug:

[merh]

35. There are always innocent civilians and casualties of war

they don't care about deaths and/or destruction of US interests (unless there are corporate interests - depends on what insurance the corporation has on the structures, the people are replaceable).

Hell, for all you know, it could be a strike on the green zone that gives them cause to attack.

[hvn_nbr_2]

38. So they'd be evacuating the Green Zone to go where? Somewhere they'll be safe...

like Sadr City, maybe? Although the Green Zone isn't safe, it's more safe than anywhere else they have to go. This whole concept doesn't make any sense to me. It would be more likely they'd evacuate everywhere else and move everyone TO the Green Zone.

[NNN0LHI]

39. Yea Sadr City sounds like just the ticket

Though I suspect somewhere in the states would be a little safer.

Look, if I am not falling for this attack Iran bullshit do you think the Iranians are?

Give it a rest.

Don

[Disturbed]

43. Pushing Iran towards Bankruptcy.

Could the rumors of the US Regime attacking Iran be a plan to push the Iranian Govt. to over spend on Military Defense & hasten Iran toward economic disaster?

Persian Journal Economy Iran Economy Oil Bourse News and Iranian ...
Aug 28, 2007, 18:32 Economy iran: A troubled economic scene The Iranian government last ... Aug 21, 2007, 16:59 Economy Iran air travel at all time high ...

http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/economy.shtml

[scarletwoman]

44. Gotta disagree with you here, Don. Didn't you notice when all those Patriot anti-missile systems

got delivered to, and set up in the Green Zone this past winter?

You don't deploy Patriot batteries to protect against mortars and grenades and truck bombs, you put them up for defense against ballistic missiles. Iraqi insurgents don't have ballistic missiles, Iran does.

The Green Zone will be warned on the QT, the public isn't going to know if anyone is being evacuated or not -- if the public were told about a Green Zone evacuation going on, the Iranians would know, too.

The bombing of Iran is going to be a surprise attack, launched with as little warning as possible. The planners KNOW they have catch the Iranian air defenses hard and fast and unaware. They're counting on crippling the Iranian military so badly on the initial bombing run that the Green Zone will be under minimal threat. It IS a fortified zone, after all, with the latest in air defense technology.

And on the other much more cynical hand, a mass casualty event in the Green Zone that could be unequivically pinned on Iran would provide a veritable propaganda bonanza for the Masters of War -- literally a gift from heaven.

I wish we on the left would stop getting bogged down in discussions of whether or not this attack on Iran is going to happen. The fact is, there are alot of really powerful people who WANT it to happen. Who have not stopped working toward making it happen. And who have all the means and power to make it happen any time they damn please -- because NO ONE IS DOING ANYTHING TO STOP THEM.

We are watching all the pieces being put into place right before our eyes, pieces being put into place by people whom NO ONE is preventing from doing so.

The point isn't whether it's GOING to happen or not, the point is NO ONE is stopping it from being made possible! And as long as it is possible for them set their plans in motion, at the time of their choosing -- as long as no counterforce exists that would make it NOT possible for them to do so -- then all the arguments about will they or won't they is just a denial mechanism, imho.

They want to, they have the means, and there is NO ONE to stop them. These are the facts. (And, I might add, they are most certainly evil and monstrous enough to do it, besides.)

I'm tired of arguments over whether bushco will really attack Iran. The reality is they want to and they CAN.

I think the question we should asking ourselves is this: These being the facts: They want to, they have the means, and there is NO ONE to stop them, what should we be doing to try to prevent the slaughter of thousands or hundreds of thousands of our fellow human beings by the hands of the madment that rule us?

sw

[NNN0LHI]

46. And if the Patriot anti-missile systems don't work as usual? Then what?

About the only confirmed kill from a Patriot anti-missile system I can remember was a British Tornado jet that we shot out of the sky accidentally at the beginning of the Iraq invasion as it was returning to Kuwait.

I know they are excellent at making some US company rich but I wouldn't want my life to depending on one.

Don

[scarletwoman]

47. Yeah, but bushco won't have the same concerns.

In any case, my point is that I don't think watching for a Green Zone evacuation will have much predictive value. An evacuation would have to be done secretly if at all, because just as you would consider it a tip-off that the bombs are going to start dropping on Iran, so would the Iranians -- and there goes the shock and awe surprise. The idea is to take out Iran's weaponry before they have a chance to deploy it in defense.

sw

[SOS]

55. Remember the Patriot propaganda in 1991?

It was later reported that the effectiveness of the Patriot system was 0%.

[windoe]

50. exactly...

The fact remains that the plans to attack were in place long ago, and now any 'proof' of imminent threat MUST be a hoax. This means any attack of Iran is illegal and a war crime. Added to the stinking pile of war crimes already committed.
If we have an illegal government operating against international law, is there no oversight whatsoever? What if enough military brass were to recognize illegal orders? Are there not ANY laws or safeguards for leaders who have gone stark raving mad?
Any military experts or lawyers online to answer this? If there are laws then THIS is the time to impliment them!!

[sanskritwarrior]

51. How exactly will there be no Green Zone?

What magic weapon will Iran use this time?

And no the sure sign we are about to attack Iran will be the US forces moving towards the Iranian border in Diyala, Kirkuk provinces.........

Iran cannot hurt the Green zone they know it, we know it........Seriously why on earth do so many people get wrapped around the zxle about the Green zone, it's more journalists and NGO's than American military or diplomats.........

[Timmy5835]

56. Excuse me..........

Unlike Iraq, Iran has a full fledged military. They could do plenty of damage to the green zone if they wanted to.

[sanskritwarrior]

58. Please explain

Remember you are talking to a guy whose job is knowing what Iran can and cannot do.

1. Tell me how does Iran logisitcally supply itself inside Iraq in the face of US airstrikes?

2. How does the mostly leg infantry Iranian Army get near enough to Baghdad to damage it?

3. How does Iran's antiquated airframes get through coalition airspace to attack the Green Zone

Those 3 will do well to start, answer those 3 in a way I cannot easily rebut and I will concede the point. But to claim that Iran has a real military is hilarious, these are the guys that had an Army 3 times larger than Iraq's Army from 1980-1988 and couldn't advance more than 20 miles into Iraq........So please enlighten me.

[Timmy5835]

59. Did you ever stop to think.........

.....they would fight an insurgent war like North Vietnam did?????? Not to mention, I am sure they would mine the Gulf. Learn by history or you're doomed to repeat it. Oh, by the way is this guy who knows what Iran can and can not do, is this the same guy who knew SO much about Iraq???????

[sanskritwarrior]

60. LOL

so you are telling me that Iran will infiltrate a large enough force into Iraq to destroy the Green zone by an insurgent combat model.

Ok so again explain

1. How does Iran infiltrate enough PERSIANS into ARAB IRAQ and not have someone notice ALL the PERSIANS inside Iraq.

2. How does a Persian insurgent force gain access to the Green zone when the people that know the neighborhoods, have superior weaponry and are much more motivated to do fail to do so?

3. How does the Persian Insurgent force fend off the 50,000 US and 60,000 Iraqi troops garrisoned within 20 miles of the Green Zone

4. How does the Persian Insurgent force tactically advise each other and therefore retain their fighting strength when they are cut off from Iran, at the mercy of ARABS who are not exactly their friends, and are facing both the US and Iraqi militaries........

So again so answers would be nice, I have read a book or two and that is why I know Iran will never attack Iraq, and if they did make such a stunningly stupid mistake, the Arabs of Iraq would en masse side with America over the hated Persians.......

[Timmy5835]

61. LOL....... at you

That's EXACTLY how the Vietcong took South Vietnam.

[sanskritwarrior]

63. Yes but the Vietnamese were the same ethnicity

and the Vietcong did not take anything the NVA did all the heavy lifting...........

so thanks for providing no answeres and proving my point.

Now if you would like to try again I'm listening.

[Timmy5835]

65. Buddy, you have NO answers either

Iraq is NOW in talks with Iran. Iran would not attack Iraqis in the Green Zone but Amaricans. I am sure Iraqis would love that.

[sanskritwarrior]

67. LOL

so how does Iran with unguided weapons avoid hitting Iraqis in the Green Zone.....

I have asked several questions that a serious military analyst could answer, you have refused to answer them and instead have avoided answering them and when confronted with facts you don't like you start spinning away........

So again how does Iran hit the Green Zone with their unguided weapons systems and avoid killing Iraqis?

And how does reconciliation talks between Iran and Iraq lead to Iran attacking American forces in Iraq, given that Americans are the ones who organized the talks???

cmon man just answer one question.

[BlooInBloo]

71. They're all the same to Americans - gotta get used to that.

[lonestarnot]

62. What about all the stuff they've bought?

[sanskritwarrior]

64. What?

Russian diesel electric subs? Can't hurt Baghdad

Brazilian rockets? Gotta get much closer than the Iranian border to hit baghdad........

Please provide me a list of Iran's "wonder weapons" that can make the Green zone be destroyed..........

[Timmy5835]

66. Come on. Follow your history

To achieve their objectives they DON'T have to destroy Bagdad, far from it. They just need to destabilize The Americans

[sanskritwarrior]

68. And how do they do that?

how does the Iranian military do that?

I know my history, that's why this whole argument is so laughable.......we would have to be in Iraq 200 years to approach the hatred that ARAB Iraqis have for PERSIANS.......

so again how does Iran do this given their limited military strength and inability to project any kind of power beyond their borders??

we can do this all day where you make half assed assertions and I ask you to back them up while I back up my assertions with facts from the reality of the Iranian military situation.

[Timmy5835]

69. OK, then.......

Prove your assertions. Name the reports you got your info from. It's called Journalism 101.

[sanskritwarrior]

70. No it's called Analysis 101

and the burden of proof is on the one making the claims, that would be you........that's how thing work bro......I'll be back later.

[uppityperson]

72. no you won't.

bro.

[Neshanic]

73. Why? Let's review the person squatting in the WH. Unimaginable deaths of Iraqis...

Our own men given shoddy equipment and now on how many trips to this nightmare?

He does not give a rat's ass, nor does anyone around him about the "Green Zone".

He will just tell em to "hunker down and keep quiet."

Really, this is hardly a plausible reason.

[HuffleClaw]

74. i would think they'll only evacuate the bigwigs

but they HAVE floated the idea of withdrawing from iraqi cities before.

[DefenseLawyer]

75. The plan is to have the Rapture evacuate the Green Zone

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition.