Hurricane Felix, Cat. 5.

[pinto]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0607_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/000023.gif

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022359
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/022359.shtml

[HeeBGBz]

1. Felix is gonna be somebody's worst nightmare

The recon team had to get out of there. Lightning, turbulence and ice. This is a freakish storm and no one is really sure where the hell it's going.

[RL3AO]

2. I've never seen a recon flight aborted.

We will see what the AF boys find later.

[malaise]

4. That is my biggest fear

I suspect Cozumel or Cancun. If it misses both of them Texas is fugged.

[Catherine Vincent]

3. Felix is not a wonderful Cat 5.

[Ilsa]

5. We're sitting in the 5% probability right now. But the high pressure

systems in the mainland US may pull this monster further north than Dean. We're keeping a close eye on it. It is also a fast storm, which may be helpful after it passes over land; perhaps it will diminish and move into another piece of land before it has time to rebuild wind speed.

[RL3AO]

6. The high pressure keeps it south, a low pressure system can pull it north.

[malaise]

7. And that is the problem

that low pressure system likely to pull it north. Remember they started out saying West but it's been WNW all day today.
Add and change word.

[hornblast]

8. my how it grew

earlier in the day it was a cat 2. now it's cat 5. sheesh. next thing you know they're going to start making networks out of 'em!

:eyes: :silly:

[EFerrari]

9. Welcome to DU, hornblast.

:)

[HeeBGBz]

11. I think it went from TD to Cat 5 in about 18 hours n/t

[RL3AO]

13. 42 hours.

[HeeBGBz]

25. Oops, I meant TS not TD

Became a named storm in the wee hours of Sept 1. Upgraded to Cat 5 around 5 pm Sept 2.

[Firespirit]

10. WHAT is going on with the atmosphere lately?

6 storms. All but two have been tropical storms that struggled to form and then struggled to intensify. The two that weren't... were Category 5 hurricanes!

I remember when we could expect one of these things every 3-4 years. Now it seems like unless there is an El Nino, like last year, we can expect at least one every year. Every year since 2003, except last year, gave us one. 31 Cat 5s recorded since 1928, 8 of them since September 2003 (inclusive). Something is going seriously wrong with the atmosphere and I hope the precise mechanics of it get figured out, and soon.

//edit to correct 9 to 8

[RL3AO]

12. You do have to remember that before the mid-60's

we don't know how many of those Cat 3's in Florida were Cat 5's in the water. A ship wouldn't report it because if a ship is in a Cat 5 it would sink and if it did survive, the equipment wouldn't to show how strong it was. So it is a tad misleading. Also, we are in an active period.

[Firespirit]

14. It's not that misleading

I don't think we have truly reliable data until the satellite/radar era. Comparing to 1900 would be a mistake. But I just ran a statistical analysis on the storm data from the past 70 years, and it's startling. The number of storms of 150 mph or greater for a 10-year period (1/1/1990 to 12/31/1999, as an example) has been skyrocketing. During the 1960s in the last active phase, the highest number of supertyphoon-intensity storms in any given 10-year period was 10. Now we're at 15 and climbing, and it'll surely be more by the end of the season. Something is happening to intensify the effects of the active phase.

[SoCalDem]

23. Before the technology we have now, they had only the damage

left behind ..to figure out wind speed ...But then I think houses may have actually been built stronger too back then and the coastal areas were not as populated.. It;s a toss up :)

[Major Hogwash]

15. How many Category 5 hurricanes are there on average per year?

It seems to me there have been more in the last few years.

[RL3AO]

16. The long term average is about 1 every 2 years.

[JCMach1]

17. It is normally a 'rare' event...

:(

[Lex]

18. There have been more Cat 5s recently.

I'll try to find the graphic on that. I saw it somewhere recently. Maybe at www.weatherunderground.com

[Lex]

20. Pretty good info here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

[RL3AO]

19. Recon is going in. Good luck.

[AZBlue]

21. There are actually two storms in that picture.

The one on the very left side is still a tropical storm right named Henriette.

[RL3AO]

22. An interesting storm.

Hurricane Watches for Mexico and it is forecasted to make it into Southern Arizona as a tropical depression.

[AZBlue]

27. And I'm a bit worried about that - my parents live in southern AZ.

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. Holy crap toledo

by the way folks, is it me or is this the second CAT 5 in a week?

[malaise]

26. Two weeks n/t