"Hurricane Felix a possible catastrophe for Honduras"

[Bluebear]

Felix a possible catastrophe for Honduras

Given the nearly ideal conditions for intensification--low shear and plenty of high-heat content water--Felix is likely to be a Category 5 storm as it approaches Honduras Monday. If the center tracks parallel to the coast within about 100 miles of it, an extremely dangerous situation ensues for Honduras. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 passed along the north coast of Honduras in 1974 as a Category 2 hurricane, and dumped up to 24 inches of rain on the mountainous country. The resulting landslides and floods killed an estimated 8,000 people--the fourth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever. The town of Choloma in northwestern Honduras suffered the most. A huge mudslide triggered by Fifi's rains plowed into the city at dusk on September 20, 1974. The mudslide then formed a dam that pent Fifi's raging flood waters. When the dam burst, flood waters ravaged the entire city. Half of Choloma's population--about 2,800 people--died in the catastrophe. Fifi also killed at least 200 people in neighboring Guatemala.

Felix will be stronger that Fifi was, but it will be the size of Felix that will be critical in determining if Fifi-like rains hit Honduras. As Fifi approached Honduras between September 17 and 18, 1974 (Figure 2), it grew in size. The increased size allowed Fifi to pull in moisture from the Pacific Ocean, which greatly enhanced the rainfall over Honduras. If Felix grows large enough to tap this Pacific source of moisture, prodigious rains capable of causing major loss of life will result. Currently, Felix is not large enough to tap the Pacific moisture source. Additionally, Felix is moving faster--17 mph, as opposed to Fifi's 11 mph. This won't give Felix as much time to pour torrential rains on the region. These factors may combine to prevent Felix from matching Fifi's deadly rainfall totals. However, once Felix moves clear of the South American coast, there is a good chance the storm will grow in size, due to the additional influx of moisture from the south. If this occurs, not only Honduras is at risk. The nations of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico will also be at high risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[malaise]

1. That's way off

Felix won't go near Honduras. Further Felix is a fast moving hurricane like Dean so he won't produce that much rain, wherever he hits. I think the forecasters are wrong on this one - I fear Cozumel and Cancun will be battered and then Texas.

[Bluebear]

3. I dunno, Jeff Masters is a guru :)

[malaise]

4. I love and respect him but he wrote that

earlier today and I fear Felix will hit further up the Central American line. Remember they all had Dean giving Jamaica a direct hit until Sunday morning (two weeks ago). Dean's eye never reached Jamaica.

[malaise]

23. And he was correct again

:D

[RL3AO]

5. Um, what?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0607W5_sm2+gif/000023W_sm.gif

[malaise]

6. Dean was also lined up for a direct hit on Jamaica

and that didn't happen. Felix will go further north.

[RL3AO]

7. Because the same ridge that is stering this caused it to move south of forecast.

[malaise]

8. We'll see

Felix is on his way to wherever.

[kdmorris]

2. Horrifying

In 1998, Hurricane Mitch killed 9000 people due to mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua.

I can't even say "I hope it turns" or "Maybe it won't hit there" since almost all indications are that it will.

As bad as Katrina was for the people on the Gulf coast, there is going to be much more loss of life in this case.

Edited to add: Malaise has a good point. As long as Felix keeps booking along at 20 mph, it will not produce as much rain as Mitch or Fifi, and that may help to save some lives

[Warpy]

9. I'll have a very hard time crying if Roatan Island is flattened

because I know of too many CEOs who grabbed all the money they could loot and ran there. It's an upper upscale resort for the wealthy.

I just hope the working stiffs get off the island before it hits.

[BuddhaGirl]

22. you forgot the sarcasm smilie

my brother lives in Honduras and works on Utila, and was just evacuated on the last boat. :-( He has to worry about where he is going to send his wife and two kids, and whether he should stay at his home to prevent looters from stealing his meager possessions.

There are "regular" people on those islands, not just fat-cat CEO's. Jesus H. Christ.

[BuddhaGirl]

10. OMG!!!

My brother lives in Honduras, in La Ceiba :scared: :scared:

I pray he and his family will be all right!

[kestrel91316]

11. Can you get ahold of him and tell them to move inland as far as they can, and

stay away from the rivers?

I remember all too well what happened when Mitch stalled out and sat there........

[BuddhaGirl]

16. he does not have a phone so communication is tricky

we communicate mostly by email, which I just did. Hopefully I'll hear from him soon!

[malaise]

12. Unless Felix turns West

and stays West, Honduras will only suffer from the outer bands of Felix.

If he continues WNW, devastation will be further up the line.

[RL3AO]

13. All of Northern Honduras is in the cone. Don't focus on the line.

[skids]

15. And usually the GFDL is the better model... which takes it west. n/t

[David in Canada]

14. What about Belize?

If the hurricane continues to strengthen further and the eye makes landfall in Belize, could it be the first time a hurricane has obliterated an entire country?

To date, I believe the closest a nation came close to obliteration from a hurricane was in 1979 when Dominica was battered by Hurricane David.

[fed-up]

18. Belize (NEMO) just gave evacuation orders for the Cayes earlier today nt

[malaise]

20. Clearly you didn't see Grenada or Cayman after Ivan

That was devastation.

[RL3AO]

17. Watches issued.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

[malaise]

19. Moving West again

Thankfully he's picked up speed. I still think he'll veer WNW again.
This is a deadly storm with massive roof, tree and infrastructural destruction coming for countries in its sights.

[malaise]

21. Just tried to go to the main airport and the road

was closed due to 12 foot waves coming across. I stopped and watched with some folks who had also turned back. Wish I had taken my camera.
It's overcast here and very windy. Rain will start shortly.

The good news pressure is up and speed is dropping as he passes our south coast. Felix is still moving West but is not as organized at this time. No doubt he is regrouping.