Undercutting Bush’s claims of success in Anbar.

[ProSense]

From Think Progress: Undercutting Bush’s claims of success in Anbar.

Bush's claims have been debunked repeatedly!

Anbar SNAFU

The original Anbar Awakening stories were coming out last summer when initial reporting indicated that the tribal forces were starting to arrange local and temporary cease fires with US forces. These tribal forces wanted a deal with one of their foreign enemies to go after their other foreign enemies, AQI and other foreign jihadis because those guys were a greater economic threat. AQI and their supporters were trying to muscle in on either direct smuggling routes, or the usually more lucrative protection racket. Throw in the lack of respect for local customs, and we get the Anbar Awakening Story where the enemy (with a fat wallet) of my enemy is one of my bankers strategy seems to be paying off in a short term drop in violence.

However AQI has never been a big part of the Sunni Arab insurgencies against the US military and the Baghdad central governments. Most estimates have AQI and other foreign jihadi groups as being responsible for less than 10% of the violence, with the remainder being Sunni Arab nationalists, ex-Baath'ists, criminal gangs, neighborhood defense groups, and Shi'ite militias. So what else may or may not change if AQI is marginalized... well Hannah Allam at McClatchey is saying not much:

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As Cernig pointed out earlier this week, reporting over at the Atlantic and through a grunt's blog shows that more of the same is happening. The reason why violence is down in Anbar is that the protection rackets are the undisputed champions of Anbari economic life, and the US military is funding and protecting leading members of these rackets.

So combine this with the hints of a coup, how are we promoting democracy again?

"Every contractor in Anbar who works for the U.S. military...is paying the insurgency"

Sunni Politicians Raise Doubts Over Deal

[ProSense]

1. Kick! n/t

[ProSense]

2. "Though Mr. Bush never left the confines of the air base on his six-hour visit, he declared:"

UPDATE: “Though Mr. Bush never left the confines of the air base on his six-hour visit, he declared: ‘I have come here today to see with our own eyes the remarkable changes that are taking place in Anbar Province.’”