Experts Doubt Drop in Violence in Iraq

[illinoisprogressive]

The U.S. military's claim that violence has decreased sharply in Iraq in recent months has come under scrutiny from many experts within and outside the government, who contend that some of the underlying statistics are questionable and selectively ignore negative trends.

Reductions in violence form the centerpiece of the Bush administration's claim that its war strategy is working. In congressional testimony Monday, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks. According to senior U.S. military officials in Baghdad, overall attacks in Iraq were down to 960 a week in August, compared with 1,700 a week in June, and civilian casualties had fallen 17 percent between December 2006 and last month. Unofficial Iraqi figures show a similar decrease.

Others who have looked at the full range of U.S. government statistics on violence, however, accuse the military of cherry-picking positive indicators and caution that the numbers -- most of which are classified -- are often confusing and contradictory. "Let's just say that there are several different sources within the administration on violence, and those sources do not agree," Comptroller General David Walker told Congress on Tuesday in releasing a new Government Accountability Office report on Iraq.

Senior U.S. officers in Baghdad disputed the accuracy and conclusions of the largely negative GAO report, which they said had adopted a flawed counting methodology used by the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Many of those conclusions were also reflected in last month's pessimistic National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/05/AR2007090502466_pf.html

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. If bush or the military say that it dropped, then it's certain that it didn't.

[bluestateguy]

2. I don't know why so many people just eat up statistics provided by this government

Statistics on the economy, statistics on militray recruitment, statistics on casualties in Iraq, statistics on the budget, etc. Why should we believe them?

[lligrd]

3. Who Are These Experts?

How expert do you have to be to know that if this administration claims it, it is a lie? Jheesh, I could have told them that.

[NI4NI]

4. Many civilian deaths are now being "classified"

Ike Skelton and the GAO general Mr. Walker made that clear during the House hearings today.
Mr. walker also testified before John Kerry's Senate hearing yesterday that he could only answer some questions about civilian deaths in Iraq in a closed door session.
Same old fuzzy bush administration math, just like the real national unemployment percentage rate.....only deadlier.

[TahitiNut]

5. July-August ... by year

2003 49 43
2004 58 75
2005 58 85
2006 46 66
2007 88 88

Any f*cking questions?? :grr: :grr:

The Cheney/Bush turds claim an "improvement" during the two months where, each year, the casualties drop - but we just saw the WORST year for military deaths in July and August.

Lying fucktards!

[slowry]

6. US military deaths for July-September, 2003-2007

This doesn't tell the whole story of course, but it's worth noting, when they claim US deaths have "been going down". Yeah, maybe since the previous month or two, but that doesn't mean a thing.

July 2003: 48
July 2004: 54
July 2005: 54
July 2006: 43
July 2007: 78

August 2003: 43
August 2004: 75
August 2005: 85
August 2006: 66
August 2007: 88

September 2003: 33
September 2004: 87
September 2005: 52
September 2006: 77
September 2007: 10 (as of the 5th)

[NI4NI]

7. just speculation here, but

I don't think they're counting Shia on Shia violence.
Just a quess.

[wtmusic]

8. Damn that Comptroller General David Walker and his GAO

someone get him a pair of rose-colored glasses!

[Disturbed]

9. The Busholini Regime & their Corp Media will push hard

to convince the American Public that the US Occupation must continue. I strongly suspect that the Dems in Congress will fork over another $50 Million for the Bloody Fiasco.