The other Surge: Rate of home loans entering repossession hits high, National delinquency rate 5.12%

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Rate of home loans entering repossession hits high

Angela Balakrishnan
Friday September 7, 2007

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2164194,00.html

The rate of home loans entering the repossessions process in the US hit a record high in the second quarter due to a surge in the number of failing mortgages to lenders with poor credit histories, an industry report said yesterday. The Mortgage Bankers Association study was followed by comments from two members of the Federal Reserve Board that the turmoil in financial markets stemming from the weakening US housing market could hurt the economy.

The proportion of loans moving into foreclosure was 0.65% on a seasonally adjusted basis, 0.22 of a point up on the same period a year ago, the MBA said.

The national delinquency rate for mortgage loans also rose to 5.12%, up 0.28% from the first quarter and 0.73% from a year ago. The large increases were down to subprime loans given to high-risk borrowers, which are mostly concentrated in just a few states.

"What continues to drive the national numbers is what is happening in the states of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona," said Doug Duncan, the MBA's chief economist. "Were it not for the increases in foreclosure starts in those four states, we would have seen a nationwide drop in the rate of foreclosure filings."

[Deja Q]

1. So don't take out loans for more than what you can handle...

Of course, not having your job taken from you also helps in being able to pay things back?

Though offshoring is hardly the sole reason for the mess the housing industry is in; but everybody is saying the only reason is because borrowers took out far more than what was feasible. That's not entirely fair either.

Plus other reasons and facets I'm not including.

:shrug:

[fasttense]

2. We bought a house about seven years ago.

We only refinanced to get a lower interest rate. We have a 15 year fixed. If my husband were to lose his job, we could not make the payments. I imagine many other people are in similar situations. They borrowed when they thought they had good jobs that would cover the cost of the loan. Then their job gets sent to another country and they get stuck working 2 McJobs making half of what they use to make. If they have very little equity in the house, it is probably easier to just walk away from the debt.

Even so, we only have a 5.12% delinquency rate. That doesn't sound so bad. There are about 300 million people in the US. Figure about half of them have mortgages on their homes - about 150 million(that is probably a high number but I'm guesstimating here). So at 5.12% that only makes about 7,680 loans that are delinquent. How can just about 7,500 loans cause so many problems in the world economy? I assume this delinquency rate includes homes moving into foreclosure too. Even if it doesn't, it only adds about another 1,000 loans. So about 8,500 loans are creating a huge mess the world over. I don't get it. Am I missing something here?

[fed-up]

3. try 617,000 foreclosures during 1st 7 months of this year in US (includes pre-foreclosure)

or according to chart below 731,184 (data may have been updated at some point)
there are 355,624 REO (bank owned properties), see chart below

http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/355024.html
Foreclosures stack up
Frustrated borrowers who lenders to try to work things out say it's a fruitless ordeal
By Jim Wasserman - Bee Staff Writer
Published 12:00 am PDT Sunday, September 2, 2007

The ceaseless multiplication of this joint impasse helps explain the 617,000 foreclosures during the first seven months of this year in the United States, according to Fair Oaks-based Foreclosures.com, a Web site for real estate investors. Behind those numbers -- including 3,756 foreclosures in the Sacramento region during the first six months of 2007, according to DataQuick Informations System -- is the often- unbridgeable divide between mortgage lenders and their growing ranks of distressed borrowers.


and are you assuming that children are homeowners?

there are 2 MILLION loans set to reset in the next year, most of which will probably end up in foreclosure

there have been countless articles posted here on DU about the crisis, which is only just beginning

the banks and mortgage brokers should NEVER have given out so many zero down, interest only loans without income documentation
add to that the minimized credit risk that these loans were given when they were sold down the line

add no regulation from the Bush administration because they wanted the economy to look rosy

housing prices were driven way up in some markets because starting early this century millions of people were given loans they never ever would have qualified for if they had to document their income-most assumed they could sell within a few years and reap a profit, but when the market peaks and everyone wants to sell at once without a new pool of unqualified buyers they are stuck holding a piece of property that will not quickly sell for what they paid for it


http://www.foreclosures.com/stats/

Regional Preforeclosures
Region Households January February March April May June July August Totals Per Capita
Midwest 13,415,768 9,262 9,681 14,072 15,536 16,974 11,694 12,772 16,943 106,934 0.80 %
Southeast 16,424,732 16,251 19,051 26,077 21,454 27,256 19,591 27,477 34,053 191,210 1.16 %
Northeast 17,694,185 13,264 12,610 11,950 13,629 16,345 12,236 15,348 15,281 110,663 0.63 %
Southwest 26,174,730 31,035 32,129 42,695 34,756 44,727 33,016 43,252 50,338 311,948 1.19 %
Other States 2,403,078 1,009 1,070 1,706 1,525 1,326 986 1,199 1,607 10,428 0.43 %
Nationwide 76,112,493 70,821 74,541 96,500 86,900 106,628 77,523 100,048 118,223 731,184 0.96 %

Top 10 States (Preforeclosures
State Filings Per Capita
Nevada 23,098 3.09 %
Florida 135,676 2.14 %
Colorado 26,232 1.63 %
Illinois 60,048 1.53 %
California 161,539 1.40 %
New Jersey 42,974 1.40 %
Arizona 25,679 1.35 %
Utah 6,799 1.06 %
Texas 52,210 0.91 %
Georgia 23,329 0.90 %



http://www.foreclosures.com/stats/default.aspx
Regional REOs
Region Households January February March April May June July August Totals Per Capita
Midwest 15,862,818 11,142 9,241 13,501 11,774 14,656 12,124 13,089 13,610 99,137 0.62 %
Southeast 17,782,691 8,266 7,943 12,017 10,649 12,802 9,997 12,469 12,589 86,732 0.49 %
Northeast 17,563,990 1,216 1,120 2,417 2,361 1,932 2,047 2,600 2,899 16,592 0.09 %
Southwest 26,552,480 15,584 13,417 19,716 17,799 16,871 15,810 21,125 21,293 141,615 0.53 %
Other States 2,575,666 885 484 624 477 655 765 2,087 5,571 11,548 0.45 %
Nationwide 80,337,645 37,093 32,205 48,275 43,060 46,916 40,743 51,370 55,962 355,624 0.44 %

[fed-up]

4. I just redid your math and you somehow lost a few decimal points...shift to the right two nt

[fasttense]

5. Oops, you are right. Thanks, I'm having a fuzzy math day. n/t