Spin on U.S. troop fatalities in Iraq: "Without the Aug. 22 helicopter crash..."

[ProSense]

Dissent and discussion: Casualties in Iraq

By Mark Seibel | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Thursday, September 6, 2007

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Of course, none of the soldiers would have died in Iraq if U.S. troops weren't there, and that's one reason to count all casualties when talking about the American cost of the war. But hostile deaths are more reflective of actual contact with the enemy and a better number to gauge the pace of combat operations.

Some critics argue that there's an annual drop-off in casualties in the summer, and that we erred by not accounting for that. Using that approach, any decline in casualties from May's peak was simply to be expected and has nothing to do with the surge or combat operations.

But that doesn't explain why this August, in particular, when the U.S. supposedly was increasing combat operations, deaths dropped. Here are the summer statistics from icasualties:

Month Hostile Non-Hostile Total

Aug 2007 56 28 84
July 2007 67 12 79
June 2007 93 8 101
May 2007 120 6 126

Aug 2006 58 7 65
July 2006 38 5 43
June 2006 57 4 61
May 2006 57 12 69

Aug 2005 75 10 85
July 2005 45 9 54
June 2005 69 9 78
May 2005 67 13 80

Aug 2004 55 11 66
July 2004 44 10 54
June 2004 37 5 42
May 2004 62 18 80

Aug 2003 16 19 35
July 2003 28 20 48
June 2003 18 12 30
May 2003 8 29 37


As you can see, deaths always drop between May and June, and, since 2004, they've always risen between July and August, except this year, when they dropped — even though there were an additional 30,000 or so American troops in Iraq. So there's no reason to think that the drop in hostile deaths that took place between July and August this year was a normal seasonal variation. In fact, it was aberrant. Without the Aug. 22 helicopter crash, which no one so far has attributed to hostile action, total deaths would have been lower in August — breaking a long pattern.

So who's correct, surge supporters who say the August numbers show that sending in more troops is working? Or surge opponents, who say the statistics mean nothing more than that Sunni Muslim insurgents and Shiite militiamen simply slipped away to fight another day?

There's no definitive answer yet. But the outpouring of commentary shows that it was a good question to ask. That's how we see the story and its underpinnings from here. We'll keep looking at alternative arguments and perspectives, particularly those that surface here in our comments section, and we intend to highlight those that make points that need wider consideration. Watch this space.

Emphasis added. "Without the Aug. 22 helicopter crash..." That's the neocon's entire case. Forget about the rising death toll, a couple of unexplained helicopter crashes means combat deaths are down.

Hostile:

.............Mar.......Apr.......May.......Jun.......Jul.......Aug
2003.......58.........50..........8.........18.......28.........16
2004.......35.......126.........62.........37.......44.........55
2005.......31.........46.........67.........69.......45.........75
2006.......26.........65.........57.........57.......38.........58
2007.......71.........96.......120.........93.......67.........56

Non-hostile:

.............Mar.......Apr.......May.......Jun.......Jul.......Aug
2003.........7........24.........29.........12.......20.........19
2004.......17..........9.........18...........5.......10.........11
2005.........4..........6........13...........9........9..........10
2006.........5........11.........12..........4........5............7
2007.......10..........8..........6...........8.......12........28

Total:

.............Mar.......Apr.......May.......Jun.......Jul.......Aug
2003.......65........74.........37.........30.......48.........35
2004.......52.......135.........80.........42.......54.........66
2005.......35........52.........80.........78........54........85
2006.......31........76.........69.........61........43........65
2007.......81.......104.......126........101.......79........84

Bushies claim Iraq violence down, but "Getting Shot in the Front of the Head Doesn't Count"

[Jim__]

1. I agree - it's a crock!

Without the Aug. 22 helicopter crash, which no one so far has attributed to hostile action, total deaths would have been lower in August — breaking a long pattern.

Ummm, not unless we go back and look at all the other years and see if there isn't a "without the <cite incident> total deaths would have been lower in August". What were the 19 non-hostile deaths in 2003, what were the 11 in 2004? Without that information, the claim is meaningless.

Then, of course, we could try to analyze it statistically, but there are so few data points, 5, that my guess is that we couldn't reject that there is no significant meaning to the numbers.

[JeffR]

2. Kick

:kick:

[ProSense]

3. Kick! n/t

[coco77]

4. They are lying as usual...

and they have been doing it for years.

[ProSense]

5. Kick! n/t