I have a feeling there will be a huge shift from Hillary to Edwards in the last two days before Iowa

[Quixote1818]

and after Iowa Edwards will quickly wrap things up. If I am wrong then Hillary will win in a landslide. Edwards is already leading in Iowa but he will extend that lead in a major way.

My gut feeling is there will be a major shift just like in 2004, within hours of the polling. Remember, Dean dropped like a rock and Edwards and Kerry shot up like a rocket. People are nervous Hillary can't win and they think Edwards can and that will decide the race for Edwards. If people are in a gambling mood then Hillary may pull it out but after Bush I don't think Dems will want to gamble.

Ok, tell me where I am wrong?


On Edit: I think Obama will also get a huge boost then as well but not as big as Edwards. Biden could also get a big boost. My prediction:

Edwards 1st
Obama 2nd
Hillary 3rd
Biden 4th

[Maddy McCall]

1. Exactly my sentiments.

You posted what I've been thinking for awhile.

The only thing that could upset all of this is if Gore enters, but that's looking less and less likely as each day passes.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. President Dean Agrees!!!

In December '03, 30 days before Iowa, Dean was up by almost 30% over Kerry. As we know, Dean went on to win Iowa and the nomination...

NOT.

Moral: don't pay too much attention to early polls. They are relatively unrelated to outcome.

[Zensea]

5. All you really know is

that in 2004 they were relatively unrelated to the outcome.
You have no way of knowing if this will be true in 2008.
In order to have a better idea you would have to use more data, that is go through the past 50 years or so and see if the early polls are always unrelated to the outcome.
Even that would not tell you much although it would give you a better idea.

[MannyGoldstein]

6. I Have. They Are, Whenever No Incumbents Are Running. (nt)

[Zensea]

11. Isn't Hillary an incumbent?

:evilgrin:
I don't take early polls that seriously either though just so you know.

[Ken Burch]

3. Then again, losing Iowa isn't always the end of the road.

I'm still hoping Dennis does better than expected. We need a strong progressive peace presence at the Convention. We don't need Denver to be yet ANOTHER "politics-free zone". 2004 proved once and for all that silencing debate doesn't help us.

[Mojambo]

4. That is EXACTLY what Edwards is banking on

And I sure hope it comes to fruition.

[Egnever]

7. I hope you're wrong

of the whole feild we have this time the only ones i am hoping dont get the nod are hillary and edwards.

[DURHAM D]

8. Tell you where you are wrong...?

Better yet - you tell me where you are right.

Whistlin' past the graveyard much?

[Quixote1818]

9. Are you predicting Hillary to win? nt

[DURHAM D]

10. Unlike you, I don't have a reliable Ouija board. eom

[Quixote1818]

12. So then how can you say I am wrong if you aren't willing to take a position?

You just contradicted your original post.

[DURHAM D]

13. I don't need to take a position.

You are just making shit up so you can convince yourself that you don't need to be worried about the possibility that your candidate will be dead in the water after Iowa.

[Quixote1818]

15. You think JE is my candidate?

Yep, you are better off at not being a pundit. I don't have a candidate right now and personally I would support any of the Dem's and work for all of them no matter who got the nomination.

All I am doing is taking a guess. I could be completely wrong. If so then so what? :eyes:

[ThomWV]

14. The sooner Hillary falls out the better off we'll all be.

She is the only possible candidate we could run that could lose.

[Hieronymus]

19. Every thinking Democrat thinks Edwards is our best chance in '08.

A call-in poll on Thom Hartmann gave Hillary one or two votes. By far, the most went to Edwards. Next was Kucinich, who is great but has no chance.

[ThomWV]

21. Actually I think Gore would be our 'best chance' but Edwards is certain in 2nd place.

[GreenTea]

16. Your absolutely correct...John Edwards will win Iowa!

[WI_DEM]

17. people this time will think twice before voting for somebody because they don't think they will win

That was Kerry's big arguement his "electability" and that Dean would be another McGovern, but he isn't in the WH today.

[BlooInBloo]

18. LOL! Talk about yer self-fulfilling prophecies.

[Quixote1818]

20. Dem's voted for Kerry based on experience not elect ability

That was what the polling suggested.

[sandnsea]

22. But neither is Dean

If he couldn't convince Democrats, anywhere, how do you think he could have convinced Independents?? And don't you think he would have had the election stolen too, and wouldn't have been able to find any evidence either because none has been found in 3 years.