Howard Fineman: The Surge and the Polls

[babylonsister]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20704665/site/newsweek/

The Surge and the Polls
This is supposed to be a make-or-break week in the conduct of the Iraq War. But politically, it's looking a lot like 2006 all over again.
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Web—exclusive commentary
By Howard Fineman
Newsweek
Updated: 2:40 p.m. ET Sept. 10, 2007

snip//

Politics is never what is seems, and the patterns change with each turn of the kaleidoscope. A few months ago, it appeared crystal clear that the GOP was on the road to ruin because of Iraq. The Democrats, however, have been unable to capitalize on the GOP’s predicament. There simply is no way for them to accomplish in Congress what the average Democratic voter wants – and end to the war. That, in turn, has drained away what little credibility the Democratic Congress had with its constituents.

Democratic edge?

Even if they could get a meaningful, war-ending deal—which they can’t—there are Democrats in Washington who may console themselves that they will “have the issue” in the 2008 election—that is, that they can ride to the White House on a wave of voter discontent.

If they can’t deliver, however, they could face a third-party or independent presidential campaign that would make Ralph Nader’s 2000 effort look minor by comparison.

And now Bush, cold-blooded as usual, is moving to back the Democrats into a corner of their own good conscience. Having launched a war that has killed tens of thousands and left Iraq in ruins, he demands that Democrats not abandon the poor Iraqis to the “killing fields.” Having given Iran an opening in Mesopotamia, he insists that Democrats not abandon the region to the same Mullahs he managed to empower.

One other factor that allows Bush to dig in: Vice President Dick Cheney isn't running to succeed him. Bush surely wants to see the GOP win in 2008, but he has no personal ties to a potential successor that he would feel obligated to protect.

To haggle successfully in the Grand Bazaar, you have to be willing—really willing—to walk away. Bush is relying on the fact that the Democrats are probably too responsible to do so.

[Buns_of_Fire]

1. Alas, it appears the patient rejected the spinal transplant. (n/t)

[Javaman]

2. LOL no truer words have been spoken. LOL nt