http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1266Republican Ability To Blur On Iraq in 2008 Becoming More Likely
by: Chris Bowers
Mon Sep 10, 2007 at 17:14:44 PM EDT
Watching today's goings-on related to Iraq, I am starting to see a path for a total Democratic collapse on the issue of Iraq for the 2008 elections. Given the following, it now seems entirely possible to me that Republicans will be able to thoroughly blur the differences between the two parties on the subject, thus eliminating any possibility of a second wave election that would cement a realignment. Here are the problems:
1. Among both members of Congress and Presidential candidates, the vast majority of Democratic plans to re-deploy out of Iraq leave substantial amounts of residual forces in the country.
2. Democrats in Congress have failed to make any dent in the war, and are now openly discussing compromise with Republicans.
3. One of the compromise plans includes a bi-partisan bill that sets withdrawal as a goal, but does not actually mandate it. This will allow numerous Republicans to make it appear as though they are in favor of withdrawal from Iraq just as much as Democrats are, since they both proposed the same bill, and then voted the same way on that bill. This is particularly important, since the majority of Republican sponsors of the bill are on the frontline of Democratic pickup possibilities in 2008. In the House, the districts they represent include IL-10, NY-25, NY-29, PA-03, PA-06, PA-15, WA-08, VA-11, all of which are clear Democratic pickup opportunities. In the Senate, the sponsors include highly endangered Republicans Susan Collins, John Sununu, and Pete Domenici. Basically, we are talking about giving cover to Republicans in at least half of our top-tier pickup opportunities. There are also several more second and third tier possibilities in that sponsor list.
4. Today, Petraeus outlined a possible redeployment plan that would remove all combat troops by 2010, and leave a residual force presence of 60,000 non-combat troops in Iraq in 2012. Yglesias has the chart from Petreaus's presentation showing this plan.
5. According to a Diageo Hotline poll from July (PDF), only 37% of Americans believe Rudy Giuliani would continue the war in Iraq, while 37% believe he would end it within a year or less. For McCain, 26% believe he would end the war, while 44% believe he would continue it. When it comes to Romney, 22% believe he would end the war, while 34% believe he would continue it. In every case, a majority of Americans are unaware that major Republican presidential candidates want to continue the war in Iraq at its current level. The blurring as already begun.
6. The escalation will end next summer, simply because we will run out of troops to deploy to Iraq. However, it could still look like withdrawal has started, and that Republicans are in favor of it.
Now, this is something of a doomsday electoral scenario for Democrats, and there is no guarantee it will happen. Right now, according to the same Diageo / Hotline poll, a Democratic member of Congress is viewed as ready to end the war by a 68%-20% margin, while a Republican member of Congress is only viewed as likely to end the war by a 35%-46% margin. Further, in all likelihood, the Bush administration won't actually withdraw any troops that they don't have to, and troops level sin Iraq will remain at least at pre-escalation levels going into 2008. However, the possibilities for potential blurring of the two parties in key elections are mounting, and that is something to worry about. This is largely due to the actions of Democrats by proposing indeterminate numbers of residual forces, and by their willingness to engage in meaningless "compromise" that does nothing but give Republicans cover. We are not yet in a position where the differences between the two parties has been truly blurred on this issue, but it isn't hard to see how that could happen in the future unless we change our tactics now.
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