Juan Cole: Can Gen. Petraeus and Ryan Crocker Save the Next Democratic President

[unhappycamper]

http://www.juancole.com/

Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Can Gen. Petraeus and Ryan Crocker Save the Next Democratic President?

Despite what the pundits will say, I fear the testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker on the Hill Monday and Tuesday is not a turning point, does not give Bush breathing room, and is largely irrelevant.

To any extent that what they do in Iraq ends up making a real positive difference, Petraeus and Crocker will likely be doing the Democrats a big favor, not Bush, who won't be in office much longer.

The central question is whether the Democrats can force a significant reduction of troops from Iraq on Bush's watch, so as to avoid Iraq becoming exclusively their headache when they (as is likely) take over the White House in January of 2009. If they could, this drawdown would be the best option. Certainly, that is what a majority of Iraqis thinks, according to the new BBC/ABC poll.

But the answer is: No. The Democrats cannot get the troops out of Iraq because they cannot overturn a Bush veto in the House of Representatives, and because they cannot overcome the need for a consensus of 60 senators in the Senate. Some Democrats, such as Joe Lieberman, oppose a rapid withdrawal. And the likelihood that 11 Republican senators will suddenly become withdrawalniks between now and November, 2008, is negligible.

The testimony of Petraeus and Crocker may marginally reinforce the will of the Republicans to stay the course, but I do not think it is decisive. In all likelihood, the Republican senators would have continued to block their Democratic colleagues from doing anything really dramatic, anyway.

[Cha]

1. Hope so only lieman

is not a Democrat.

[Flarney]

2. Options for Congressional Democrats...

...is it fair to say that they only way they can end the illegal occupation is to refuse to pass any more funding for it? Because of veto and filibuster powers I don't know what else they can do. However, with Bush at the helm I doubt that would even work...he is so craven he would probably keep our soldiers in Iraq, even let them run out of food--basically hold them hostage--all the while blaming Democrats for the soldiers lack of food and supplies until he got his war funding. This is excruciating.

[ShortnFiery]

3. Then the Democrats need to do the right thing and MAKE Bush Veto their bill.

Pin the responsibility for this horrific occupation back on the republicans.

[Johonny]

7. I agree

They are under no obligation to place any legislation on Bushes desk. He he wants to veto his own war money... let him. If Republicans in the senate want to table war money... let them.

[OHdem10]

4. I so wish I could agree with you--Unless the Senate

Dems do something absolutely spectacular today-=-we
have once again given GWB complete reign to do as he
pleases. Petreus and Crocker have lain out the plan
for a long long time in Iraq and no one is challenging
this in a serious way.

Saying we do not have the votes--no longer cuts it.

People are getting exhausted from this war---If the
Dems cannot or WILL NOT show how they are different
from Republicans--GOP takes over again in 08.

I am sorry to be so negative. The only Pundits who count
are those who are on TV. About 70% of American People
cannot comprehend a compound sentence. That is about
three-quarters of Americans. Americans get their information
from TV. While many on this board pride themselves in not
watching TV--this just proves they are a minority. No
disreect to the Great Newspapers and Magazines, the real
voters get information from TV. It behooves us to watch
TV and write them when they give out disinformation. GOP
base watch TV and this is why Pundits Pander Right.

[roesch]

5. a sober message

I read Juan's column this morning and while I wish it were not true, I think he has reached what seems the inevitable conclusion we seem headed toward. Bush and Co will hang on until they reluctantly pass the Iraq mess to the Dems who then may see an even greater civil war upon our troop reduction.And this will pave the way for another long nightmare of Republican rule.

[goodhue]

6. we don't have votes is bogus excuse

The votes would change quickly if there were some real movement in the political dynamics.
Betrayus and Crocker are doing their best to ensure that won't happen; Dems must not play their game.

[mmonk]

8. Don't send the funding.

Real simple. No more bills.